Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2021 Breaking News

Here’s the link to the news about the Indian variant. Whether this is a case of just poor testing regime or a stealthy variant, I honestly don’t know.

More informed commentary on the J&J situation:
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/04/14/vaccine-side-effects-q-and-a

These kinds of posts are why I come back to the Dope. Thanks Trom.

138,843,235 total cases
2,985,676 dead
111,617,948 recovered

In the US:

32,149,223 total cases
578,092 dead
24,696,161 recovered

Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:

Today was the 2nd largest single-day increase in new cases yet with over 804,000 new cases worldwide.

Not trying to quibble over the numbers, but I wonder how much of the “new cases” increases are due to each of:

  1. The world’s ever-increasing ability to reliably test suspect cases.
  2. The changing willingness (and ability) of the somewhat sick to seek treatment or at least diagnosis.
  3. Changing standards, formal or informal, on how much untested ILI is labeled COVID by default vs something else.

There’s no doubt this disease is totally having its way with humanity. But in any large scale distributed reporting scheme there is vast opportunity for noise, and especially noise that changes over time, to largely confound any effort to manage by changes in the signal.

I hope you don’t mind. I created another thread on this. This is shocking news to me. I’m interested in learning more about it.

I can’t speak for the world, but the number of tests in the US has gone down this year, not up. I couldn’t dig up a chart online, so I made one using the Covid Tracking Project data, here.

Imgur

My hunch is that people are more energetic about getting a vaccine than a test, so test demand has fallen.

Also not speaking for the world, but the latest articles I’ve read about India are about them running low on oxygen due to the number of people severely ill with covid. So I’m pretty sure things have gotten worse there recently.

(Also, they’ve stopped exporting vaccine, wanting to use it at home. Which is kind of a world crisis, since India is the world’s largest producer of vaccines.)

139,686,933 total cases
2,999,553 dead
118,731,199 recovered

In the US:

32,224,139 total cases
578,993 dead
24,770,980 recovered

Yesterday’s numbers for comparison:

By tomorrow, the world will have recorded over 140,000,000 cases of Covid-19.

Also by tomorrow, the world will have lost over 3,000,000 people to the virus.

Very few cases are happening in vaccinated people.

29% of the 5,800 cases were asymptomatic. 7% required hospitalization. Because of the lag, it’s hard to know what the correct denominator is for the cases vs vaccinated.

The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Map shows the reported daily case numbers about equal to the record high level of last December, and appear poised to continue going up.

The Daily Report Cases in India are shooting up at an incredible rate. Mot only are their levels the highest of any country (almost three times the number in the US, long the world leader in this category), they are on track to exceed the record levels set by the United States in January. Daily Case rates are skyrocketing in Colombia, Argentina, and Germany, as well.

By contrast, the US rates, although up from March, are not increasing rapidly and may even be levelling.
Among individual states and territories, Michigan’s daily reported cases (seven day average) hit a new record high yesterday, April 15. Puerto Rico set a new record high on April 12, which I had missed. Vermont’s rate has gone down since it hit a new record two weeks ago. Maine’s daily case numbers are skyrocketing upwards, buit not yet as high as their January 12 record high. Other states, while some have increasing numbers of daily cases, are not as high or rising rapidly.

I hope it stats that way, but a lot of them have recently opened up venues. New Hampshire just repealed the statewide mask mandate yesterday, which I hope won’t make their cases rise.

New Hampshire has also been vaccinating people at a really good clip, so i hope that will offset the impact of the mask mandate going away.

I wonder if retailel establishments will continue to require masks.

I believe that technically the mandate sunsetted, and was not renewed. But new cases per day in the state have been steadily climbing for the last 40 days, so not renewing it is inexcusable.

No kidding! We were talking about that at lunch today, mostly rolling our eyes at the local news reporting that the governor “still expects” that people will continue wearing masks. Gee, you know a great way he could’ve ensured this expectation?

About 1/2 of adults in NH have gotten at least one shot and about 1/4th have gotten both, but cases are up in adults, cases are up in kids, and hospitalizations are up. The only thing that is holding steady is deaths. I think we’re going to see this summer that herd immunity is considerably higher than 70% vaccinated/infected.

The fact that the countries showing big increases seems random is bizarre to me. Surely the protocols being used by Germany are very different than in Colombia or Argentina.

Michigan:

Quoted by Snowboarder_Bo, not a quote from Snowboarder_Bo:

‘Hey! We’ve got lots of people getting sick at our plant in Sterling Heights! Why don’t all you people who go home at night to Warren come work at this plant where lots of people are getting sick!’

Followed shortly by: “It sure is a tragedy how this virus keeps hitting Michigan so hard; hopefully they’ll soon figure out a way to stop it from spreading so easily and quickly. There’s just so much we don’t understand about this virus still.”

IMO … There are two huge uncontrolled variables. What is the disease doing in terms of variants, etc? What is the actual compliance of the populace for the official management protocols.

Once we have a handle on those factors too we might be able to explain (more of) why we see the results we do.

Based on my small local sample, it’s clear that around here individual compliance with precautions are dropping faster than the state reports vaccinations are increasing. Which totally explains the apparant paradox of unchanging restrictions, increasing vaccination, and increasing infection rates

Warren is literally adjacent to Sterling Heights. They may be among the largest cities in the state by population (#3 and #4, behind only Grand Rapids and Detroit), but that’s because they are bedroom communities in the northern Detroit suburbs. Warren is adjacent to the northern Detroit border, in the very southwestern corner of Macomb County. Sterling Heights, where I live, is directly north of Warren. There is absolutely nothing strange about moving workers a few miles north from where they normally are. They aren’t putting them on buses and running them across the state.