Looks like the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) is reporting a day early this week because of the Easter Holidays. Here’s the BBC update - about one person in 15 has the virus this week:
About 4.4 million people had the virus in their body in the week up to 9 April, down from nearly 4.9 million the week before…
…The study, which uses its own testing, gives the clearest indication of the virus’s spread since free testing ended in England.
It tests thousands of people at random - whether or not they have symptoms - to estimate how much virus there is in the country.
The article has a handy graphical summary of test results going back to October 21. Just eyeballing it, I would say that the average weekly figure going back to the start of the year is about 3.5 million. As many (most?) cases are likely to be (close to?) asymptomatic, I’ll guess that, on average, testing would give a positive result for about a week for each infection - it’s an assumption that simplifies the math. (I have no idea how reasonable some of these assumptions are, but go with me here, as we head to a ballpark figure.)
OK, that’s 3.5 million x 14 weeks = 49 million = 73% of the UK population.
Alright, I admitted some assumptions are iffy. I don’t know which tests were used. I’m not accounting for re-infections. And so on - it’s all very sloppy, I admit, but I just wanted, for myself, some idea of what these results represent. Maybe I’m out by 50 %. Or more. But it’s hard to get away from this: a staggering proportion of the country has had COVID since the start of the year. Even if they are unaware of it.
We have 20 000 people in hospital with (not necessarily because of) COVID. 300 or so are on ventilators. (Source). Vaccination rates are high. Masking in (eg) stores is now the exception - sometimes very much the exception - rather than the rule.
Og protect us from another disastrous variant, but it’s starting to feel like the endgame now.
j