If the numbers in your area are low (per capita), and dropping, then your risk is lower.
If the numbers are high (per capita) and rising, then much more caution is indicated.
I should have said that “per capita” is the important qualifier. Essentially I’m asking what the “density” of covid is in your particular area.
For example, BC reports provincial covid numbers. But it’s very different in different areas of the province. If I was in the central Okanagan, they have 80 average daily cases per 100,000 and a vaccination rate of 73%. Where I am right now has 4 cases per 100,000/day and a vaccination rate of 91%. These two places would present very different risk levels.
Then, I also have to take into account where I’m going out. Is it to a place where there is a good likelyhood of meeting a tourist from the aforementioned high case area? (or from other places of high cases?) Or am I going to a place where I know most folks, and they’re all from the local (91% vaccinated) area?
There is a lot of data to put into the picture, but I tend to look at these things (among others) when assessing risk.
The county where @ThelmaLou and I live, it’s 69 per 100,000 and dropping (hopefully!). That’s high. However, some zip codes are only 11 per 100,000 while others are over 100 per 100,000.
Thanks - this is why I think it’s important for us to get the data as granular as possible, especially if we’re thinking of going to events or areas with little possibility for tourists/travellers.
If you’re in a high tourist area, then all bets are off, and you have to assume the worst, unfortunately.
your “base risk” depends on what the rates are in your area – that’s a very coarse estimate of how likely the other people you are singing with might be infected. If they are more vaxxed than the average in your area, that reduces your risk. If they are well-masked (and I have no clue how effective singer’s masks are, but you might be able to research that) that also reduces the risk.
69/100K sounds pretty high to me, though.
I honestly don’t know what to advise you. Achingly lonely is a serious problem, and is bad for your physical health, too. This might be a question worth discussing with your doctor, if you have a good relationship with them.
And I’m positive. Positive for COVID and positively pissed off. I need to come up with another name, directly after getting the results, I put a deposit down on another Maine Coon and I used HIS bank card.
So far, its just been like a mild summer cold. If not for what’s going on, I wouldn’t think twice about it. I’m pretty sure he brought it home, he says he’s had a headache for about a week and its only been a few days for me.
Its good to know that we have COVID because now we will quarantine for a couple of weeks instead of going out and spreading it around.
This seems really soon after he had it last. It was just a few weeks ago. Is it possible to get it a 2nd time so quickly? Perhaps this is still part of the first infection.
I can’t remember, but did you ever get a pulse oximeter? It’ll help tell if your oxygen levels are dropping before you feel it. I hope it passes quickly and you get better soon.
The masks will reduce the odds but the singing in a large group over a sustained period of time (indoors?) amplifies the odds rather substantially, I would say. Something to keep in mind: immunity wanes as we age, steadily as we get into our 60s and 70s. This likely explains why Pfizer data in Israel shows a decline in protection among the first-vaccinated.
If you’re going to sing in a choir, have everyone be vaccinated and masked and outdoors.
It does seem soon, but IIRC the poster and hubbs are in their 70s. Immunity wanes with age. If there are comorbidities or other risk factors like diabetes, obesity, or prior organ damage, then that individual is likely to be chronically at risk. People can get colds and influenza within the span of months of each infection - not unheard of. We know that two strains can infect a person at the same time, particularly if the individual has a weakened immune system.
I don’t know for sure if hubs has it, he wouldn’t get tested. I could probably convince him now, but I’ll save the effort that would take and channel it into keeping him home for the next couple of weeks.
I don’t think this is part of the first infection, he tested clean on June 8th. So much for his strong immune system keeping him safe.
We do have a pulse oximeter, he actually tests and records the results daily when he’s checking his blood pressure.
I think I’m liking Ralph for new kitten. Ralph sounds like a dog name though, I’ll have to give this a little more thought.
Excuse you! I am only 63! However, I am overweight (its hard to exercise or even walk with my hip, but I try), and smoked tobacco for almost 50 years, quitting in 2018 after I retired.
Hubs is 68 and had a quad bypass about 10 years ago, with all that entails.
I’d guess both of us fall into the chronically at risk category but him more than me. This is why I’m so scared/angry at him over this. I have a lot of time left in me (at least 20 years, or I wouldn’t be getting kittens), and I want his dumbass with me until I die.
One particularly bad winter, when I was in Junior High, I caught two flus and three cases of strep. Or maybe it was the reverse, it’s a long time ago, now. That year sucked.
Something I read today reminded me about something I’ve been thinking about on and off…
More kids are getting sick with delta. A lot more. As the Washington Post said today: “Amid the delta-fueled coronavirus surge, the American Academy of Pediatrics reported a nearly sevenfold increase in new child covid infections in one month: In the first week of July, there were 12,000 cases nationwide. By the first week of August, the number had grown to 96,000 — representing about 15 percent of all new infections.”
That’s a lot.
Is it our fault that kids are sick now because we prioritized elderly people? And then moved down in age brackets?
As more people get vaccinated, the pool of available victims shrinks. Does having so many older people vaccinated increase the odds that younger people will get it vs what the situation would have been if it was like the flu vaccine and everyone from 6 months up could get vaccinated?
I’m just trying to work out if we put kids at risk to protect ourselves.
At risk of belaboring myself, I posted about microcovid.org in another thread yesterday and it is a good (if sometimes depressing) tool for measuring risk for certain activities and “budgeting” risk appropriately. Plugging in my interpretation of your activity (12 vaccinated people of average risk profile singing for 2 hours, normal distance, indoors, masked) for my area (San Francisco) results in a 0.2% chance to catch COVID. That sounds small, but adds up when done weekly. Of course, the odds and risk profile of the average person changes over time as cases go up or down and ultimately how concerned you should be about this depends on what your “risk budget” is.
George needs a kitten. VBC tries to keep up with him, but she’s 10.
Being an old hand at this quarantine for two weeks because I’m married to a dumbass, I’ve arranged for a friend to pick up booze and weed, and another one is dropping off groceries (we don’t need much) later.
Personally, I don’t feel that bad. A couple of years ago, I would have dismissed this as a minor summer cold, not worth staying home from work over. If this is how a mild case feels, I can understand why people don’t know they have COVID.
Do you happen to remember where you saw this? I’m trying to learn more about this, but all I’m finding are articles from July citing a small study whose data “should be taken very cautiously” that shows the vaccine’s effectiveness against COVID-19 may diminish after some months (though it’s still highly effective against severe disease) and an article today in the Jerusalem Post on the necessity of convincing people who’ve had COVID-19 that they are not adequately protected against it or the variants without the vaccine.
If you can recall the article you saw, I’d love to read more about this. Thanks!
Hubs has changed his mind about getting vaccinated! He’s figured out that while the vaccine won’t protect him from catching the next version of COVID going around, it will protect him from paying over 2500 for another kitten.
After he gets up from his nap, we are going to Walgreens and then I’m cancelling the kitten. (This is the same breeder that we used before, he already agreed to give the deposit back if hubs gets jabbed.)
I was looking forward to getting another kitten, I’m more looking forward to my favorite dumbass getting vaccinated.
