# Coronavirus will not impact the election results **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 1, 2020, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557 "2020-09-01T22:20:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2020, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557/61 "2020-09-03T14:34:33Z")
Meanwhile [here’s](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history) where I worry. Sure Rasmussen so ignore the absolute, just follow relative to itself. Strongly approve higher than their baseline, never been higher, and strongly disapprove at best the mid portion if not lower portion of its range. Intensity matters and paradoxically his support has become more enthused during these times while dislike no more intense. That might translate to turnout and that worries me. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2020, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557/62 "2020-09-03T14:55:30Z")
> [@nelliebly](#): > > You seem to forget that Fox and the conservative propaganda stream have allowed people to believe in all kinds of alternate realities. That is true to an extent totally without precedent in the lifetimes of anyone on the SDMB. Elections, however, aren’t won by unanimity, or (in the case of US Presidential elections) even overwhelming majorities. The worst blowout of my lifetime was Reagan over Mondale in 1984, and even Mondale got over 40%. Elections are won by grabbing a few percent in the middle. If Biden pushes a few percent of independents, disaffected Republicans who never liked Trump, and grabs a percent or two of Democrats who didn’t vote in 2016 but sure as hell want to now, he wins. If Trump grabs a few percent in the middle and energizes his base a few extra percent and holds on to disaffected Republicans, he wins. Just doing some back of the envelope math, out of every 100 eligible voters, in the election: 43 will not vote at all. 16 are absolutely certain to vote for Joe Biden but their states aren’t in play. 15 are absolutely certain to vote for Donald Trump but their states aren’t in play. 7 are certain to vote for Joe Biden in states that either candidate could win. 6 are certain to vote for Donald Trump in states that either candidate could win. 8 are swing votes, in play, but in states where it’s too lopsided to matter. 4 are swing votes, and their votes might actually mean something. 1 is certain to want to vote for Joe Biden but Republican cheating will prevent it. So basically they’re fighting over four percent of the votes. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2020, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557/63 "2020-09-03T17:02:34Z")
A lot of things could explain this, but these two Wisconsin graphs start to diverge right around the time of peak daily COVID deaths in the US in mid April. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/u-i81oaF0HZUKhsNLQSgnbkG-Ql5G6AZKrxF2JyDDPPyCQYSl44fMIsOk1CAJL5jWI2OFikV-FkX6KRl5Ml8sueoBGDzCzpGq9ytfIv9Q2xBpYXI4HWGxQedBISJkOd7PGD7VH0Tbw=w600-h315-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/X2tBDqnLNtxadBX99) Michigan too. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/aNsW_k-XCkNC2HNOpzNndWKDMXROnpCQgCgICf3tOOpJwp7V9nf_Cy0NGKHjEfH5jwcA9ZCDmgo0GHj8ZBA7mbuc9ma2FPrTiWugjwdAqEIufFLAG9QT5Vwx3BESuUBjsHAC6VoiSA=w600-h315-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/rb6JbkkoyuA4xGyZA) Pennsylvania as well. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/HCPTM647nlrs9b3Y28bx9NLuFUYIj-osPSLOOBQJY4PS1mDtN79ywbaz6ONg5V2pwmBC9-RRUATgKVqwujArSA43bG4Mu99ruufNRJ2RONzbMAfuCUTzG4_Z4JxDBcwelxiiKGM0aQ=w600-h315-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/YL3mKkE3TDvYt7T97) ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2020, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557/64 "2020-09-03T20:14:09Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > As I understood it, your post said that people will vote out politicians who get Americans killed in war You understood wrong. And in fact, nearly the exact opposite of what I _did_ say. Twice. The rest of what you have to say is based on that absurd misunderstanding that you keep making, so it is, once again, irrelevant. I was in fact agreeing with you that when something is well removed from the voters, that it does not have much an affect on their votes. My contention to your argument was that Covid is well removed from the voters. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557/65 "2020-09-04T17:31:41Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > You understood wrong. And in fact, nearly the exact opposite of what I _did_ say. Twice. Ah, apologies then. ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557/66 "2020-09-04T17:58:07Z")
In my opinion, the logic in the OP is laughably wrong on so many levels. This pandemic has rocked this country to the core; there are _no_ people who are not profoundly effected. Limiting the supposed effect of the pandemic to people who had Nana die in their arms is laughable. So if 100% of people have been effected (usually negatively) by the pandemic, why don’t 100% of people oppose Trump? Because they don’t blame Trump. They blame the libs. Be it because they think the libs invented the disease, or overreacted to the disease, and that all the problems are due to what libs do. They likely are entirely unaware of Trump’s mishandling of the situation - they literally haven’t heard about it, not from any source they consider even remotely credible. Hell, if one of these people did have Nana die in their arms, there’s no reason to think they won’t blame liberals for that too. Libs messed up the hospitals, or stopped Nana from getting enough sun, or whatever. Facts are basically irrelevant to a large number of these people. So the question is not whether there will be a shift because of an increasing number of people negatively effected by the pandemic - that number is already completely pegged. If there’s a shift, it’ll be due to a shift in who believes what - or due to factors unrelated to the pandemic. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557/67 "2020-09-04T19:02:29Z")
> [@doreen](#): > > If there are 20 people whose deaths would devastate @suranyi , my guess is that there are a minimum of 100 people whose deaths would affect him/her. 240k \* 100 / 300m \* 0.15 = 1.2% That would be getting somewhere but it takes us back to what I earlier said about how Trump is polling on pandemic handling, among independents. That number halves on that alone, and that was assuming that the pandemic was the #1 issue. As it is, the pandemic is 4th, below the economy, health care (in general), and Supreme Court appointments. > **[4. Important issues in the 2020 election](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/13/important-issues-in-the-2020-election/)** > > With the country in the midst of a recession, nearly eight-in-ten registered voters (79%) say the economy will be very important to them in making their How important a thing is to a person, based on how far down the list is, I couldn’t say. My sense would be that anything under 50% on the above list is basically a big fat zero so far as its importance, which could imply that if you subtract 50% from everything above that, add together, and scale it so they sum to 100% then we would have an approximation of where things really lie in importance. 2 + 2 + 5 + 7 + 9 + 12 + 14 + 18 + 29 = 98 100 / 98 \* 12 = 12.24% 100 / 98 \* 29 = 29.59% So we’re saying that, among independents, how well Trump has managed the economy is 2.41 times more important than how he has handled the pandemic. I can’t find a recent breakout on Trump’s handling of the economy, according to independents, but I’m guessing it’s around 51%. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557/68 "2020-09-04T20:03:44Z")
Just in case you feel like factoring it into your numbers, deaths are not the only way that people can be affected. Lots of people have been hospitalized, but did not die. Many will may have permanent disabilities because of coronovirus. Many more will have medical bills that last almost as long. And that is still only talking about direct effects. There really is no one that has not been impacted by this. The economy is important? Yeah, because the pandemic is fucking it. Health care is important? Yeah, because a pandemic shows how important healthcare is. So, the first two on the list are directly related to Covid. And the fourth IS covid. Yeah, it’s going to have an affect, and I can’t see any rational reason to think otherwise. > [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > My sense would be that anything under 50% on the above list is basically a big fat zero so far as its importance, which could imply that if you subtract 50% from everything above that, add together, and scale it so they sum to 100% then we would have an approximation of where things really lie in importance. > > 2 + 2 + 5 + 7 + 9 + 12 + 14 + 18 + 29 = 98 > > 100 / 98 \* 12 = 12.24% > 100 / 98 \* 29 = 29.59% This bit here? No, just no. That is _not_ how you analyze polling data. It’s so far from how you should that I can’t even start to explain what you did wrong, other than _everything_. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557/69 "2020-09-04T21:07:03Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > This bit here? No, just no. That is _not_ how you analyze polling data. It’s so far from how you should that I can’t even start to explain what you did wrong, other than _everything_ . I doubt that there’s a correct way, in the literature. If there is, given that humans tend towards hyperbolic rankings rather than linear, I’ve probably overestimated the importance of Coronavirus. If, by overestimation, we get a number too small to matter, then it’s not worth using a better methodology. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557/70 "2020-09-04T21:41:32Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > I’ve probably overestimated the importance of Coronavirus. LOL. You’ve vastly underestimated the importance of Coronavirus. [2 new items by K S ![](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pw/ABLVV86yk18Wav1uuRInl-gQ0Fivd_2GD8rsSWIoFeeqILcrF3GZUxIqS0MbBHEMlQYdSOZ0uJDVePH8rbZ9gwtQ4J4sMIsrPDf4HNM8r9-lXG-NagGM0os=w600-h315-p-k "2 new items by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/So2FEzkwrbyNt7MN6) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557/71 "2020-09-04T21:51:36Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > 240k \* 100 / 300m \* 0.15 = 1.2% The 240k here is the wrong number. Instead of the number of deaths, use the number of people who have to wear a mask to their local grocery store. ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557/72 "2020-09-04T21:53:54Z")
Well, this is just ridiculous. And all these numbers you’re using. You appear to be just making numbers up and calling the issue settled. Evictions are starting in Texas. A shit ton of small business will never come back. This is all due to the complete incompetence and corruption of the Trump administration. And regular flu season is almost upon us. I think you’re dead wrong in your conclusions. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557/73 "2020-09-04T21:54:03Z")
Or who lost their job or had their hours cut, or are close to someone who has. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557/74 "2020-09-04T23:28:47Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > LOL. > > You’ve vastly underestimated the importance of Coronavirus. 1. When looking at, for example, global warming you’ll see some people quoting the temperature data since 1850 and others who pinpoint the temperature over an anomalous 2-3 year period that can be explained by simple noise or secondary factors. The former is more convincing. And when deciding whether a thing is good for you or bad, between small studies of a few subjects and meta-analysis studies that combine the results of dozens or hundreds of small, the latter is more convincing. This looks strongly of cherry picking. 2. You are looking at the Biden v. Trump chart rather than the Presidential approval chart. In general, Biden picked up ground as the primaries firmed up on selecting him. I notice, for example, that Sanders endorsed Biden on April 13. This is the same time period where Biden starts to grow against Trump. Your chart mixes Trump’s job as a President with Biden’s general growth as a plausible candidate among a milieu of faces to a genuine contender for the throne. The general Presidential approval poll more clearly separates concerns. Clicking back on FiveThirtyEight, the April 6th approval average for Wisconsin is 44.8% (weighting equally). Yesterday’s average (Sept 1) is 44.6%. That’s just data noise of a difference. 3. Wisconsin is a farming state and appears to be one of the hardest hit by the Trade War. Farm loan delinquencies have been steadily on the rise since 2016, went up drastically in 2018, and probably are climbing even higher during the pandemic. [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-wisconsin-farmers-idUSKCN1VQ2Y1](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-wisconsin-farmers-idUSKCN1VQ2Y1) Granted, I’d need to do more research to figure out how large an impact that is liable to have on the average Wisconsinite. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557/75 "2020-09-05T00:30:26Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > When looking at, for example, global warming you’ll see some people quoting the temperature data since 1850 and others who pinpoint the temperature over an anomalous 2-3 year period that can be explained by simple noise or secondary factors. I will happily include Trump v Biden polls from 1850 for Wisconsin if you can direct to them. And of course I’m looking at Biden versus Trump when I’m trying to determine the effect of COVID on Biden versus Trump. I’m looking at the Biden versus Trump graph for the time period that there were enough polls to properly inform 538’s model. The starting date of that, by sheer luck, goes back to almost the exact day of the first US death from COVID. Over that time period things have changed from Trump +1 to Biden +7.3. That may not all be due to COVID, but it is more likely than not that some of it is. Think it through, man. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-will-not-impact-the-election-results/919557.md?page=3)