Actually then what started was the realization that even in a pandemic Trump decided that graft and ignorance was a good medicine for it. Many are not amused now and so Trump’s polling did go bad.
I actually did predict awhile ago that this attitude that “there is no more pandemic” would make the school year a nightmare and drive home the lesson that when one votes for ignorant leaders that ignore proper experts, one is going to have a very bad time.
Several years ago Neil DeGrasse Tyson believed that this was a self correcting issue among Republicans.
I think it’s a self-correcting phenomenon. Nobody wants to die, okay? So we all care about health. But above all else, among the Republicans I know, especially Republicans, nobody wants to die poor, okay?
So educated Republicans know the value of innovations in science and technology for the thriving of an economy and business and industry. They know this. If you put something that is not science in a science classroom, pass it off as science, then you are undermining an entire enterprise that was responsible for creating the wealth that we have come to take for granted in this country. So we’re already fading economically. If this, if that trend continues, some Republican is going to wake up and say, “Look guys, we got to split these two. We have to. Otherwise, we will doom ourselves to poverty.” And so I see it as a self-correcting, I don’t know when it’ll happen, but they know.
Well, [Drumming fingers on the table] I’m still waiting… unfortunately, Tyson was too optimistic.
What percent of voters in swing state Pennsylvania care that Penn State is not playing football this year?
What percent of voters in swing state Michigan care that Michigan is not playing football this year?
What percent of voters in swing state Wisconsin care that Wisconsin is not playing football this year?
Even if all six (the entire six people in the whole world that they give a shit about) of their closest acquaintances survived, they are feeling the impact of the virus.
I guess the question will be if they blame Trump or China or God. I keep saying Biden’s slogan should be “It didn’t have to be like this”.
Even though I don’t personally know anyone who died of it or even had it, I care that Trump’s incompetence resulted in the lockdown lasting much longer than it had to, and his incompetence resulted in much greater economic impact than it had to and that his incompetence resulted in many more deaths and illnesses than it had to.
It’s one thing to preside over a country at peace and with a growing economy (which is basically what he had for the first three years), but a president is expected to face a crisis like this with competence and leadership.
You know what else works that way? Everything. Literally EVERY issue there is will affect a tiny portion of the voters. Changes in the economy don’t actually affect most people’s paychecks. Wars don’t directly affect most people. Most social issues are an abstraction for almost everyone, excep for some large scale civil rights issues; I mean, the people who get pissed off about gay marriage aren’t involved in one. So unless you’re prepared to say that no issue matters, this makes no sense.
Second that. Also a big introvert but yes, I can think of way more than six people whose deaths would affect me deeply. (For example, father, mother, brother, sister-in-law, nephew, niece, sister-in-law’s father, sister-in-law’s sister, sister-in-law’s minor nephew, college roommates I haven’t seen in years, their families, and so on.)
And how can you say that it hasn’t impacted lives when it’s literally impacted the lives of virtually everyone in this and every other country?
Strong agree. 6 is way too small. It’s not like most people are going to shrug off a death outside of their immediate family. If someone at your church dies, or someone you work with, or one of your neighbors, of a preventable illness that could have been handled better, that’s terrifying and enraging.
What percent of people are among to 20,000,000 unemployed or count on of those 20,000,000 unemployed among their six closest friends?
What percent of people have to wear a mask at their local grocery store or have a close associate who has to wear a mask at their grocery store?
I can see where the OP is coming from.
The argument is often made that, since most of us don’t know anyone in the military, that foreign wars do not affect us, and we would not hold those responsible for sending our soldiers off accountable.
Two problems with that extending to Covid:
The first is that I don’t entirely buy that. Just because I don’t know a soldier doesn’t mean that I don’t care that their lives are not put into jeopardy unnecessarily.
And the second is that the analogy doesn’t hold, as there are far more affected by Covid than are in the military.
If nothing else, when famous people chose to join the military, it was a big deal, calling attention to it, as it was someone that everyone knew.
There are famous people who have gotten, and some who have died from Covid, and it wasn’t really their choice.
Pennsylvania is currently polling as a dead heat:
That’s better than Trump was performing during the 2016 election.
As I recall, there was no pandemic during 2016.
Given that military spending keeps going up, year after year, I can’t say that I see any indication that the people are anti-military. And I would suggest that, during times of greater military deaths, that military spending probably goes up even faster.
Saying things is great and all, but it needs to match the data.
The data says that the people were worried about the pandemic and, thereby, Trump’s handling of it. But, it also says that they collectively shrugged about 80 days ago and moved on with life.
As such, the only people who we would expect to be affected are those with direct impact. And since that’s such a tiny value, we simply can’t see it in the data. And there’s no reason to expect it to jump up again, in November.
There is no shy Covid-19 sympathizer, despite the majority opinion of this thread.
This isn’t even an attempt to address the argument.
The virus has directly affected people in Pennsylvania even if one of their six closest friends haven’t died whether it be college football or unemployment or any of the hundred other ways life is different in 2020. Lots of people. Pretty much all the people.
240k * 60 / 300m * 0.15 = 0.72%
Getting into the 1%'s, we are possibly talking a large enough number to affect things - given that elections are decided in the range of 3-8 percentage points, usually.
But, then we have to move on the more complicated equation which is where we ask, “Of people who would be willing to change their opinion, what percentage will view Trump’s handling as poor?” So:
59% of independents disapprove and 41% approve. So, assuming that the most important metric for the 0.72% of people is Trump’s pandemic handling, our best guess would be that only 59% of them will vote against Trump (0.42%).
Why they would vote his handling as being good, I don’t know, but people are irrational and will do things like supporting the President just because he’s the President and, “I’m sure that he’s trying his hardest!”
240k * 20 / 300m * 0.15 = 0.24%
And Trump is polling higher than in 2016.
Again, that does not address the argument.
Polling in Pennsylvania tells us nothing about whether people in PA care about COVID and are basing their vote on it.
In addition to that, we know that polling in PA was off by about three points last cycle. Are you under the assumption that polling this cycle is likely to be off by the same amount in the same direction? That is a pretty remote possibility. Biden is up by around four in a state that Trump won by about a point. Is that five point swing due the virus? Hard to say for sure.
The OP does have a point: there are plenty of voters who disapprove of Trump’s performance on many things but will still vote for him for specific reasons. Pandemic performance is one of them. His approval disapproval has never moved very much. Any other president in another time would have seen much more upside at the start and downside as his performance was so poor. Now? Fairly small movement.
On September 1st 2016 Clinton was polling in the aggregate in Pennsylvania at 48.3%, Biden is now at 49.2 with Trump at 45
This misses that Trump got very favorable approval numbers when he appeared to confront the pandemic. Numbers turned sour when it was clear that graft and incompetency was the solution from Trump. The numbers then came to be just as it has been for Trump for a long time, with Biden ahead of Trump by 7.
Trump’s peak approval other than at very start was 45.5%. There briefly. He’s now about 43.5%. Mostly he’s been 41 to 43.
He has traveled in a narrow range that is without precedent. Very few will have their minds changed by anything. Pandemic incompetence included. Those few matter and turnout matters.