# Correlation between education and party affiliation **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 2, 2004, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459 "2004-11-02T00:42:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Parthol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/dec6dc/32.png) [@Parthol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Parthol)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/1 "2004-11-02T00:42:20Z")
Recently an acquaintance of mine made a blanket claim that Democrats are more educated than Republicans. When asked for proof, he said “I don’t have proof… it’s just what I think.” Although I plan to vote for Kerry tomorrow, I’m not so blindly partisan as to just accept that sort of claim on faith. So I did some sleuthing, expecting to find evidence with which to contradict said acquaintance. On the web I found a [site](https://edcats1.reisys.com/census-reports) that has data from the 2000 census regarding percentages of state populations with college degrees and high school diplomas. And I used [electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) to gauge what states are leaning toward what candidates according to recent polls. Here’s a list of the top 20 states listed by % of the population with at least a bachelor’s degree, along with which candidate that state is leaning toward at the moment. It includes Washington D.C as a state: 1. D.C. 39.1% Strong Kerry 2. MA 33.2% Strong Kerry 3. CO 32.7% Barely Bush 4. MD 31.4% Strong Kerry 5. CT 31.4% Strong Kerry 6. NJ 29.8% Weak Kerry 7. VA 29.5% Barely Bush 8. VT 29.4% Strong Kerry 9. NH 28.7% Tied 10. ``` WA 27.7% Weak Kerry ``` 11. ``` MN 27.4% Weak Kerry ``` 12. NY 27.4% Strong Kerry 13. ``` CA 26.6% Weak Kerry ``` 14. HA 26.2% Barely Bush 15. UT 26.1% Strong Bush 16. IL 26.1% Strong Kerry 17. ``` KS 25.8 Strong Bush ``` 18. RI 25.6% Strong Kerry 19. ``` OR 25.1% Weak Kerry ``` 20. ``` DE 25.0% Weak Kerry ``` According to the [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) site, there are 20 states that are “Strong Bush,” and only 2 of them are in the top 20 by this metric. 8 states are “Strong Kerry,” and all of them are in the top 20, with 5 of those 8 in the top 10. If you look at the bottom of the list, the bottom 11 states are all pro-Bush. Only 4 of the bottom 20 are pro-Kerry, and two of those are Florida and Ohio, in the “Barely Kerry” category. (There are only 3 states in the “Barely Bush” category, and none of them are in the bottom 20.) What does this mean, if anything? My gut says that there’s correlation here but no causation. For other reasons, states with more colleges also lean Democratic. Then people graduate from college and tend to stay in the same state, thus skewing the results. But that’s just a guess, and I’d like to hear other people’s opinions on why there _seems_ to be such a clear correlation here. I know already I’ll be accused of bias or well poisoning or some such here, but I truly did this “mini-study” in an attempt to disprove someone else’s theory. In order to further deflect that sort of criticism, here’s another list: The website with the census data also lists states by “smallest % of population without at least a high school diploma,” and here Republican states do much better. The most-educated 20 in terms of having at least a high school diploma are: 1. AK 11.7% Strong Bush 2. MN 12.1% Weak Kerry 3. WY 12.1% Strong Bush 4. UT 12.3% Strong Bush 5. NH 12.6% Tied 6. MT 12.8% Strong Bush 7. WA 12.9% Weak Kerry 8. CO 13.1% Weak Bush 9. NE 13.4% Strong Bush 10. VT 13.6% Strong Kerry 11. IA 13.9% Weak Kerry 12. KS 14.0% Strong Bush 13. ME 14.6% Weak Kerry 14. OR 14.9% Weak Kerry 15. WI 14.9% Weak Kerry 16. MA 15.2% Strong Kerry 17. ID 15.3% Strong Bush 18. SD 15.4% Strong Bush 19. HA 15.4% Barely Bush 20. CT 16.0% Strong Kerry Pretty much an even split between parties (10-9-1), with Strong Bush states clustered nearer to the top. The eight Strong Kerry states are ranked #10, #16, #20, #22, #30, #36, #40, #41 – pretty much exactly average. -P ---
**Author:** ![GorillaMan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/50afbb/32.png) [@GorillaMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GorillaMan)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/2 "2004-11-02T00:56:55Z")
Oh, come on, we can all see what this data tells us: People who know what it’s like to not have opportunities know that Bush will give the next generation what they deserve! This advertisment was approved by Halliburton ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 7:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/3 "2004-11-02T07:45:50Z")
Well, according to [this site,](http://www.independent-media.tv/item.cfm?fmedia_id=9487&fcategory_desc=Election%202004) a Zogby survey in 2003 shows that “blue” states (the ones that tend to vote Democrat) have a higher percentage of the population with college degrees than do “red” states. There’s also this quote allegedly from Karl Rove, though I’ll leave it as an exercise for someone else to verify its authenticity: “As people do better, they start voting like Republicans… unless they have too much education and vote Democratic, which proves there can be too much of a good thing.” ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 8:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/4 "2004-11-02T08:36:19Z")
This is an incredibly weak correlation to be drawing such sweeping conclusions from. First of all, the difference between a ‘red’ state and a ‘blue’ state may be no more than five or ten percent of the population moving to the other side of the fence. So to take an entire state’s educational average and attribute the gain to that small group is ridiculous. Plus, it may just be correlation anyway. It may be that the real factor is urban vs rural/suburban voters, simply because their needs are different. But it would also be true that Urban environments tend to be of higher IQ simply because that’s where the professionals and students tend to be. In fact, Americans with less than a high-school education are overwhelmingly Democrats, 41 percent to 20 percent, while people who have just a high-school diploma are Democrats, 34 percent to 28 percent. People with some college training tend to be Republicans, 32 percent to 31 percent while those with at least bachelor’s degrees are Republican, 33 percent to 32 percent. It is true that at the PhD level you will find more Democrats than Republicans, but at all other levels the correlation is that the tendency to be Republican goes up with the number of years of education someone has. A huge chunk of the Democratic constituency is low-education blue collar workers and the poor. Those are the facts. [Source.](http://people-press.org/commentary/display.php3?AnalysisID=95) ---
**Author:** ![sleestak](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/919ad9/32.png) [@sleestak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sleestak)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/5 "2004-11-02T10:03:28Z")
A totally unscientific home made poll Number of PHD’s I know: 8 in hard science (Math, Physics) 4 in other (Music, Education, English) number of Pubbies: 7 PHD’s 2 other (1 with a masters in music , 1 with a masters in education) number of Dems: 1 PHD (Physics. Though I have to say this particular lady is rather strange…she is only a dem because there is no party that fits better) 2 in other (1 masters in english, 1 masters in music) Slee ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/6 "2004-11-02T18:55:51Z")
I don’t have evidence for this right now…this is just something I learned about 10 years ago from an entry level American Politics class, but the higher somebody’s level of education, the more likely he is to vote Republican, until he has an undergraduate degree. After that, the higher someone’s level of education past the bachelor’s degree, the more likely he is to vote Democratic, all other things being equal. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/7 "2004-11-02T19:02:36Z")
I once saw a study (and this was several years ago in a sociology class so I have no idea how to search for it) that said that the more educated people are the more liberal they tend to be _until_ they start making a lot of money, then they start getting fiscally conservative. IMO, the stupider people are, the more conservative they tend to be on social issues. If they get the ignorance educated out of them they become socially more liberal but if they get money they vote their bank accounts. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/8 "2004-11-02T19:06:03Z")
Was is Buckminster Fuller who said that not all conservatives are stupid but all stupid people are conservative? That about sums it up I think. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/9 "2004-11-02T19:09:37Z")
> [@Captain Amazing](#): > > I don’t have evidence for this right now…this is just something I learned about 10 years ago from an entry level American Politics class, but the higher somebody’s level of education, the more likely he is to vote Republican, until he has an undergraduate degree. After that, the higher someone’s level of education past the bachelor’s degree, the more likely he is to vote Democratic, all other things being equal. Thus proving the wisdom of Alexander Pope’s observation: “A little learning is a dangerous thing.” ---
**Author:** ![Polerius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d78d45/32.png) [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/10 "2004-11-02T19:14:47Z")
Some relevant data came out of the Pledge of Allegiance case, from a [poll done by AP](http://www.cnn.com/2004/LAW/03/24/scotus.pledge.ap): > [@](#): > > The AP poll, conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs, found college graduates > were more likely than those who did not have a college degree to say the > phrase “under God” should be removed. Democrats and independents > were more likely than Republicans to think the phrase should be taken out So, we have two statements: (1) College graduates were more likely than those who did not have a college degree to say the phrase “under God” should be removed. (2) Democrats and independents were more likely than Republicans to think the phrase should be taken out Based on the above, my first intuitive feeling was that the above two points lead to the conclusion © _The percentage of Democrats who are college graduates is higher than the percentage of Republicans who are college graduates._ Then I thought that there may be some counter-example that disproves the above conclusion. However, after a couple of minutes of writing down the math (the relevant equations and inequalities), I find that points (1) and (2) do indeed lead to ©. So, if you are a Democrat, it is more likely that you are a college graduate than if you are a Republican. As a corollary, since the number of Democrats and Republicans is roughly equal (given the 2000 presidential election results), we also see that: (C2)\* If you are a college graduate, it is more likely that you are a Democrat than a Republican.\* ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/11 "2004-11-02T20:15:49Z")
Don’t forget that University of Pennsylvania study which showed that folks who relied primarily on Rush Limbaugh for news were the most incorrect about current affairs. And that study from last month which showed Bush voters tended to be most incorrect in the facts regarding 9/11 and Iraq. Just because **Sam Stone** doesn’t want to recognize the trend doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/12 "2004-11-02T20:58:39Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > Was is Buckminster Fuller who said that not all conservatives are stupid but all stupid people are conservative? That about sums it up I think. John Stewart Mill, maybe? In his “Considerations on Representative Government”, (criticizing Disraeli for speaking against a reform bill proposed by the Liberals), he said: > [@](#): > > The Conservatives, as being by the law of their existence the stupidest party, have much the greatest sins of this description [inconsistancy between their party’s rhetoric and their actions] to answer for: and it is a melancholy truth, that if any measure were proposed, on any subject, truly, largely, and far-sightedly conservative, even if Liberals were willing to vote for it, the great bulk of the Conservative party would rush blindly in and prevent it from being carried. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/13 "2004-11-02T21:06:53Z")
> [@Captain Amazing](#): > > John Stewart Mill, maybe? In his “Considerations on Representative Government”, (criticizing Disraeli for speaking against a reform bill proposed by the Liberals), he said: Indeed, it was John Stuart Mill, but here’s the quote I was thinking of: > [@](#): > > Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. Maybe it’s from the same speech? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/14 "2004-11-02T21:22:45Z")
It’s not from that book, but it makes sense for Mill to have said it. (and, btw, it would be "most stupid people are Conservatives. Mill’s talking about the party here, not the ideological tendency.) ---
**Author:** ![yosemite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/3ab097/32.png) [@yosemite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yosemite)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/15 "2004-11-02T21:23:57Z")
My own personal poll shows some extremely bright people who are Democrats. However, their numbers are cancelled out by some mind-numbingly ignorant and poorly educated people who are Democrats. Same on the Republican side. I know some sharp-as-a-tack, well-educated Republicans, but their numbers are cancelled out by the (once again) mind-numbingly ignorant Republicans. Sorry, I’ve just never seen this sort of thing lean more towards one Party more than the other. It also depends on where you’re from—I’m from the Los Angeles area, which leans more Democrat. I am currently exiled in Hooterville (unnamed Midwestern town), which is in a “Red” state. I know really smart people from both places, (and really, _really_ ignorant ones too). ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/16 "2004-11-02T21:38:50Z")
[Here’s a Pew poll that strongly suggests](http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/232.pdf) that Dems do best at both ends of the education spectrum (post-grad, HS dropout) and Republicans do best in the middle (HS grad, some college, college grad) if we can use Bush/Kerry preferences as stand-in for party ID. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/17 "2004-11-02T21:47:58Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > [Here’s a Pew poll that strongly suggests](http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/232.pdf) that Dems do best at both ends of the education spectrum (post-grad, HS dropout) and Republicans do best in the middle (HS grad, some college, college grad) if we can use Bush/Kerry preferences as stand-in for party ID. Like I said, a little learning is a dangerous thing. ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/18 "2004-11-02T21:53:07Z")
The higher the education, the more likely you are to [vote.](http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/voting/tabA-2.pdf) Don’t know if that helps anything. ---
**Author:** ![sqweels](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f19dbf/32.png) [@sqweels](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sqweels)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/19 "2004-11-02T22:12:37Z")
Here’s how I break it down: Smart enough to get a PhD: Democrat Smart enough to get an MBA: Republican Stupid enough to be delusional about reality: Republican So stupid you’re poor: Democrat ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459/20 "2004-11-02T22:44:29Z")
> [@sqweels](#): > > Here’s how I break it down: > > Smart enough to get a PhD: Democrat > > Smart enough to get an MBA: Republican > > Stupid enough to be delusional about reality: Republican > > So stupid you’re poor: Democrat So delusional you’re poor: Republican. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/correlation-between-education-and-party-affiliation/272459.md?page=2)