Correlation of SCOTUS votes.

It may be wise, as you suggest, to restrict attention to 5-4 decisions, since that is when the vote “counts.” I did my own study, and found that Scalia and Thomas were on the same side in 102 out of 113 five-four decisions, more than any other pair.

From Wikipedia, I reconstructed a database of 580 Supreme Court decisions for the years 2001-2009. Of these, 113 decisions were made by a 5-4 vote. I confined my analysis to those 113 cases.

I found that the 4 “liberals” (Stevens, Ginsburg, Breyer and either Souter or Sotomayor) voted the same way on 83 of the cases, split 3-1 on 18 of the cases, and split 2-2 on 12 of the cases.

Of the 83 five-four decisions where “liberals” were united, they lost 52 and won the remainder with the help of Kennedy (18), O’Connor (10), Scalia (2), Thomas (1).

Of the 18 five-four decisions where “liberals” were split 3-1, they lost 11 despite help from O’Connor (5), Kennedy (2), Scalia (2), Thomas (1), Rehnquist (1), and won 7.

By the way, when groups of 2 judges are considered instead of groups of 4, no pair of “liberals” outperformed Scalia and Thomas for correlation: this pair were on the same side in 102 out of the 113 five-four decisions.

Here are the detailed votes in the 113 five-four decisions:
The 12 vote columns correspond to

  1. Rehnquist
  2. Roberts
  3. Stevens
  4. O’Connor
  5. Scalia
  6. Kennedy
  7. Souter
  8. Thomas
  9. Ginsburg
  10. Breyer
  11. Alito
  12. Soto


Case Correctional Services Corp. v. Malesko"  : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Dusenbery v. United States (page does no : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Great-West Life & Annuity Ins. Co. v : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Kelly v. South Carolina (page does not e : NxYYNNYNYYxx  5 4 9
Case Ragsdale v. Wolverine World Wide, Inc. ( : YxYNYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Hoffman Plastic Compounds, Inc. v. NLRB" : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Mickens v. Taylor (page does not exist)" : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Thompson v. Western States Medical Cente : NxNYYYYYNNxx  5 4 9
Case US Airways, Inc. v. Barnett (page does n : YxYYNYNNNYxx  5 4 9
Case Los Angeles v. Alameda Books, Inc. (page : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Federal Maritime Comm'n v. South Carolin : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case McKune v. Lile (page does not exist)">Mc : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Carey v. Saffold (page does not exist)"> : NxYYNNYNYYxx  5 4 9
Case Rush Prudential HMO, Inc. v. Moran">Rush : NxYYNNYNYYxx  5 4 9
Case Harris v. United States (page does not e : YxNYYYNNNYxx  5 4 9
Case Zelman v. Simmons-Harris">Zelman v. Simm : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Republican Party of Minnesota v. White"> : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Board of Ed. of Independent School Dist. : YxNNYYNYNYxx  5 4 9
Case Sattazahn v. Pennsylvania (page does not : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case United States v. White Mountain Apache T : NxYYNNYNYYxx  5 4 9
Case Ewing v. California">Ewing v. California : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Lockyer v. Andrade">Lockyer v. Andrade</ : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Brown v. Legal Foundation of Washington  : NxYYNNYNYYxx  5 4 9
Case Virginia v. Black">Virginia v. Black</a> : YxYYYNNNNYxx  5 4 9
Case Roell v. Withrow (page does not exist)"> : YxNYNNYNYYxx  5 4 9
Case Nguyen v. United States (page does not e : NxYYNYYYNNxx  5 4 9
Case American Insurance Association v. Garame : YxNYNYYNNYxx  5 4 9
Case Green Tree Financial Corp. v. Bazzle (pa : NxNNYNYNYYxx  4 5 9
Case Georgia v. Ashcroft">Georgia v. Ashcroft : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Stogner v. California">Stogner v. Califo : NxYYNNYNYYxx  5 4 9
Case Jama v. Immigration & Customs Enforc : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Smith v. Massachusetts (page does not ex : NxYYYNYYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Roper v. Simmons">Roper v. Simmons</a></ : NxYNNYYNYYxx  5 4 9
Case Jackson v. Birmingham Board of Education : NxYYNNYNYYxx  5 4 9
Case Johnson v. United States (page does not  : YxNYNNYYNYxx  5 4 9
Case Pasquantino v. United States (page does  : YxYYNYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Pace v. DiGuglielmo (page does not exist : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Granholm v. Heald">Granholm v. Heald</a> : NxNNYYYNYYxx  5 4 9
Case Medellin v. Dretke" class="mw-redirect"> : YxNNYYNYYNxx  5 4 9
Case Dodd v. United States (page does not exi : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Rompilla v. Beard (page does not exist)" : NxYYNNYNYYxx  5 4 9
Case Kelo v. City of New London">Kelo v. City : NxYNNYYNYYxx  5 4 9
Case Exxon Mobil Corp. v. Allapattah Servs. ( : YxNNYYYYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Van Orden v. Perry">Van Orden v. Perry</ : YxNNYYNYNYxx  5 4 9
Case Bell v. Thompson (page does not exist)"> : YxNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case McCreary County v. ACLU" class="mw-redir : NxYYNNYNYYxx  5 4 9
 -----
Case Brown v. Sanders (page does not exist)"> : xYNYYYNYNNxx  5 4 9
Case Central Virginia Community College v. Ka : xNYYNNYNYYxx  5 4 9
 -----
Case Day v. McDonough">Day v. McDonough</a></ : xYNxNYYNYNYx  5 4 9
Case Garcetti v. Ceballos">Garcetti v. Ceball : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Hudson v. Michigan">Hudson v. Michigan</ : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Empire HealthChoice Assurance, Inc. v. M : xYYxYNNYYNNx  5 4 9
Case Rapanos v. United States">Rapanos v. Uni : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case United States v. Gonzalez-Lopez">United  : xNYxYNYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case Kansas v. Marsh">Kansas v. Marsh</a></i> : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Ayers v. Belmontes (page does not exist) : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Lawrence v. Florida (page does not exist : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Philip Morris USA v. Williams">Philip Mo : xYNxNYYNNYYx  5 4 9
Case Marrama v. Citizens Bank of Massachusett : xNYxNYYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case Massachusetts v. EPA" class="mw-redirect : xNYxNYYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case Zuni Public School District No 89 v. Dep : xNYxNYNNYYYx  5 4 9
Case Gonzales v. Carhart">Gonzales v. Carhart : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case James v. United States (2007)">James v.  : xYNxNYYNNYYx  5 4 9
Case Abdul-Kabir v. Quarterman (page does not : xNYxNYYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case Brewer v. Quarterman (page does not exis : xNYxNYYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case Smith v. Texas (2007)">Smith v. Texas</a : xNYxNYYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case Schriro v. Landrigan (page does not exis : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Ledbetter v. Goodyear Tire & Rubber  : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Uttecht v. Brown">Uttecht v. Brown</a></ : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Bowles v. Russell">Bowles v. Russell</a> : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Morse v. Frederick">Morse v. Frederick</ : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Federal Election Commission v. Wisconsin : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Hein v. Freedom From Religion Foundation : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case National Assn. of Home Builders v. Defen : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Parents Involved in Community Schools v. : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Leegin Creative Leather Products, Inc. v : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Panetti v. Quarterman">Panetti v. Quarte : xNYxNYYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case Ali v. Federal Bureau of Prisons">Ali v. : xYNxYNNYYNYx  5 4 9
Case United States v. Santos (page does not e : xNYxYNYYYNNx  5 4 9
Case Irizarry v. United States (page does not : xYYxYNNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Boumediene v. Bush">Boumediene v. Bush</ : xNYxNYYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case Dada v. Mukasey">Dada v. Mukasey</a></i> : xNYxNYYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case Sprint Communications Co. v. APCC Servic : xNYxNYYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case Kennedy v. Louisiana">Kennedy v. Louisia : xNYxNYYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case District of Columbia v. Heller">District : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Medellin v. Texas                        : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Winter v. Natural Resources Defense Coun : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Altria Group, Inc. v. Good" class="mw-re : xNYxNYYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case Herring v. United States">Herring v. Uni : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Oregon v. Ice">Oregon v. Ice</a></i>, 55 : xNYxNYNNYYYx  5 4 9
Case Summers v. Earth Island Institute (page  : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Bartlett v. Strickland">Bartlett v. Stri : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Vaden v. Discover Bank (page does not ex : xNNxYYYYYNNx  5 4 9
Case Entergy Corp. v. Riverkeeper, Inc. (page : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case 14 Penn Plaza LLC v. Pyett (page does no : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Corley v. United States (page does not e : xNYxNYYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case Arizona v. Gant">Arizona v. Gant</a></i> : xNYxYNYYYNNx  5 4 9
Case FCC v. Fox Television Stations, Inc." cl : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Ashcroft v. Iqbal">Ashcroft v. Iqbal</a> : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Haywood v. Drown">Haywood v. Drown</a></ : xNYxNYYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case Montejo v. Louisiana">Montejo v. Louisia : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Caperton v. A. T. Massey Coal Co." class : xNYxNYYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case United States v. Denedo (page does not e : xNYxNYYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case District Attorney's Office for Third Jud : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Gross v. FBL Financial Services, Inc. (p : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Melendez-Diaz v. Massachusetts">Melendez : xNYxYNYYYNNx  5 4 9
Case Atlantic Sounding Co. v. Townsend">Atlan : xNYxNNYYYYNx  5 4 9
Case Horne v. Flores">Horne v. Flores</a></i> : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
Case Cuomo v. Clearing House Assn., L. L. C." : xNYxYNYNYYNx  5 4 9
Case Ricci v. DeStefano">Ricci v. DeStefano</ : xYNxYYNYNNYx  5 4 9
 ----------
Case Hollingsworth v. Perry                   : xYNxYYxYNNYN  5 4 9
Case Wellons v. Hall" class="mw-redirect">Wel : xNYxNYxNYYNY  5 4 9
Case South Carolina v. North Carolina (page d : xNYxYYxNNYYN  5 4 9