# Cost of Living Is Poised to Plummet in the Next 20 Years (SingularityHUB) **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [July 21, 2016, 7:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479 "2016-07-21T07:38:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![JohnClay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/c37758/32.png) [@JohnClay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnClay)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 7:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/1 "2016-07-21T07:38:32Z")
> **[Why the Cost of Living Is Poised to Plummet in the Next 20 Years](https://singularityhub.com/2016/07/18/why-the-cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years/)** > > People are concerned about how AI and robotics are taking jobs, destroying livelihoods, reducing our earning capacity, and subsequently destroying the economy. In anticipation, countries like Canada, India and Finland are running experiments to pilot... > [@](#): > > …Powered by developments in exponential technologies, the cost of housing, transportation, food, health care, entertainment, clothing, education and so on will fall, eventually approaching, believe it or not, zero… > > …People with a smartphone today can access tools that would have cost thousands a few decades ago. > > …When Uber rolls out fully autonomous services, your cost of transportation will plummet… > > …Ultimately, the poorest people on Earth will be chauffeured around… > [@](#): > > …Housing will demonetize for two reasons: The first reason is because of two key technologies which make the proximity of your home to your job irrelevant, meaning you can live anywhere (specifically, where the real estate is cheap): > > (1) Autonomous Cars: If your commute time can become time to read, relax, sleep, watch a movie, have a meeting — does it matter if your commute is 90 minutes? > > (2) Virtual Reality: What happens when your workplace is actually a virtual office where your co-workers are avatars? When you no longer need to commute at all. You wake up, plug into your virtual workspace, and telecommute from the farm or from the island of Lesvos. > > The second technology drivers are robotics and 3D printing, which will demonetize the cost of building structures… This paints a very bright picture of the future… ---
**Author:** ![nightshadea](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/7ba0ec/32.png) [@nightshadea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nightshadea)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 7:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/2 "2016-07-21T07:41:09Z")
Walt Disney said most of that in the 60s…were still waiting although were closer than we were ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 7:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/3 "2016-07-21T07:58:05Z")
Gotta love how on one hand we have people who never remember there are jobs which need to be presential, and on the other we have people who never believe that some jobs can be done remotely. The type of jobs, or companies, or… whatever they’re thinking of is treated as the only possible one. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/4 "2016-07-21T10:38:34Z")
> [@nightshadea](#): > > Walt Disney said most of that in the 60s…were still waiting although **we’re closer** than we were Actually, I don’t think we’re much closer. Back in the 60’s the cost of living was low enough that most families only needed one wage earner. But as for the predictions: My favorite one was the old promise that electricity would be free–…one or two small lumps of uranium would provide enough power for the whole country, with no extra costs. And my favorite bit of the Futurama pavillion in the 1965 World’s Fair was the film showing the wonders of the “electrification of the countryside”. Heated glass bubbles around each individual tree would allow growing oranges in North Dakota. ---
**Author:** ![Shalmanese](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shalmanese](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shalmanese)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/5 "2016-07-21T11:58:07Z")
The first 50 years of the telecommunications revolution have only made geography more important, with the bulk of creative work crammed in select few tiny cities around the globe which continue to grow in importance every year. And yet we see a steady drumbeat of belief that further communications breakthroughs will lead to decentralization with no real attempt to engage in the factors that drive centralization in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![RealityChuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitychuck/32/195_2.png) [@RealityChuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityChuck)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/6 "2016-07-21T12:17:16Z")
> [@](#): > > (1) Autonomous Cars: If your commute time can become time to read, relax, sleep, watch a movie, have a meeting — does it matter if your commute is 90 minutes? Sure as hell does. You have to get up an hour earlier than if your commuted was 30 minutes. I’m surprised they didn’t mention flying cars and food pills. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/7 "2016-07-21T12:24:08Z")
> [@RealityChuck](#): > > I’m surprised they didn’t mention flying cars and food pills. And jet packs. I’m really tired of waiting for my jet pack. ---
**Author:** ![Pantastic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3bc359/32.png) [@Pantastic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pantastic)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/8 "2016-07-21T13:17:06Z")
Vernor Vinge popularized (maybe coined) the term singularity, and presented a paper on the concept in 1993. In the article, he stated that within 30 years we would be able to create superhuman intelligences, and that shortly therafter the human era would end. [Vernor Vinge on the Singularity](http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html) . Twenty-three years later, we don’t seem especially close to creating superhuman intelligences, and it’s doubtful that the era of humans will end in the next decade or so, even this article just thinks that things will get cheaper. There’s been an amazing development in technology that will completely alter the human condition about 20-30 years away in a variety of fields since at least the 1940s. But somehow when the ‘20 years’ mark rolls around, it’s back to being 20 years away yet again. ---
**Author:** ![Yllaria](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yllaria/32/3452_2.png) [@Yllaria](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yllaria)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/9 "2016-07-21T13:20:26Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > Actually, I don’t think we’re much closer. Back in the 60’s the cost of living was low enough that most families only needed one wage earner. . . . Ah, the sixties. I think it was '64 when we got our first clothes dryer. We didn’t take down the clothes line for a few years, though, just in case. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/10 "2016-07-21T13:22:54Z")
And there have been amazing developments - but for some reason these articles always seem to be closer to trying to see who can come up with the biggest idea than about trying to come up with realistic predictions. They remind me of my brothers, bickering in the back seat of the car with me seated between them as an eternally rolleyey peacekeeper: “I’ll yell at you!” “I’ll hit you!” “I’ll punch you!” “I’ll kick you!” and it kept escalating until the final “I’ll throw an _big breath_ _atom bomb_ on you!” ---
**Author:** ![jtur88](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e9c0ed/32.png) [@jtur88](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jtur88)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/11 "2016-07-21T13:39:32Z")
If it does, it will be because the world has abandoned the American model of prosperity and embraced the Chinese model. In a single generation, the Chinese have gone from characteristic third-world poverty to an economy that already pretty much matches what the OP describes. Side note: In a society where few people have to “go to work”, why is universal and affordable transportation a benchmark of success? ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/12 "2016-07-21T14:38:14Z")
“Few people”? Again, someone who apparently doesn’t realize how many of the people he interacts with daily have to go to work because the nature of the work requires it. A few weeks ago there was a holiday. One of my guildmates said “well, time to go to work” and got multiple responses of “not today! It’s a holiday!” I said “what, you guys think the people serving drinks in bars do it for love and kisses? There’s lots of people who work every holiday!” Invisible jobs. ---
**Author:** ![jtur88](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e9c0ed/32.png) [@jtur88](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jtur88)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/13 "2016-07-21T16:34:50Z")
My rhetorical question using “few people” was based on the OP’s “When you no longer need to commute at all.” ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/14 "2016-07-21T16:44:35Z")
The cost of food has been decreasing for a long time, but we don’t generally consider the cost of living to be just the cost of basic necessities. Add to that the concept of a Standard of Living and there’s no doubt it will increase in a consumer society like ours. ---
**Author:** ![jtur88](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e9c0ed/32.png) [@jtur88](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jtur88)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/15 "2016-07-21T18:14:21Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > The cost of food has been decreasing for a long time, but we don’t generally consider the cost of living to be just the cost of basic necessities. Add to that the concept of a Standard of Living and there’s no doubt it will increase in a consumer society like ours. The Singularity is going to be a very interesting event if about 80% of the world’s population is excluded from it. Aside from the projection that everything “like ours” is going to cease to exist in any recognizable form, including “consumer society”. Sadly, so many of us taking for granted the western economy don’t “generally consider” 3/4 of the planet’s daily lifestyle, and have never exhibited any real interest in voluntarily surrendering their accustomed privilege. How will we deal it when they are still out there, in their billions, looking in through the fence at our lovely singularity. when we neatly bypass the step of “generally consider[ing] the cost of living to be just the cost of basic necessities.” At present, the world’s level of per capita income/wealth lies between Botswana and Dominican Republic. How’s that working out for them so far? ---
**Author:** ![spamforbrains](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@spamforbrains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spamforbrains)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/16 "2016-07-21T19:41:53Z")
> [@](#): > > (2) Virtual Reality: What happens when your workplace is actually a virtual office where your co-workers are avatars? When you no longer need to commute at all. You wake up, plug into your virtual workspace, and telecommute from the farm or from the island of Lesvos. Well, I sort of do this-no avatars, just email messages and web pages, and my cost of living went WAY down vs. compared to a regular job. I live in a dirt-cheap place instead of being forced to live in an area with an incredibly high cost of living, wear sweats most of the time, and rarely have to drive the car. But, and big but, most jobs can’t be done that way. I doubt self-driving cars will cause any drop in the cost of living. It will probably just increase the cost of servicing and buying cars. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/17 "2016-07-21T22:08:22Z")
On a long enough timeline, yes. But I don’t know about 20 years. Health care is the big one, that is way too expensive. The US and China are both facing issues due to expensive health care for different reasons. The US because our system costs 2x as much as anywhere else, China because they are becoming elderly and aren’t rich enough to handle it. Ideally, having the 2 largest economies and 2 biggest sources of R&D both motivated to solve that problem will result in some advances. Also not everyone will want to add extra time to their commute. I personally consider my commute part of my workday, if it is an extra hour a day, that is an hour less of sleep, recreation, socializing outside of work, etc. So the part about self driving cars, I don’t know if I agree. I’d wager we will reach a point where living is dirt cheap more in the mid century, not the 2030s. What am I basing that on? Some facts I gently pulled out of my ass. However by the 2060s you’d assume we will see healthcare be almost totally taken over by robotics and AI, 3D printing will make many/most consumer goods, food will be 70%+ cheaper, autonomous cars will make up 90%+ of cars, solar power will power a home for $2 a month, etc. Leading a middle class life on a few hundred a month will be possible by then just so long as you aren’t located in an area with high demand real estate. The singularity people are basically atheists awaiting a technological rapture that will usher in a paradise. Just like religious folk, they want it to happen ASAP. I’m not saying it won’t happen (I really really doubt the human race gets to the year 2300AD without being something we can’t even fathom in 2016). I just doubt it’ll happen in the next 10-20 years. More like 50. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/18 "2016-07-21T23:20:16Z")
> [@RealityChuck](#): > > Sure as hell does. You have to get up an hour earlier than if your commuted was 30 minutes. Not all jobs are the same, but I easily have a few hours a day that don’t require physical presence. My job can start as soon as I get in the car if I don’t have to pay attention to the road. 90 min there + 5 hours at work + 90 min home isn’t totally ridiculous. When all cars are fully automated, the risk of crashes will be negligible, and I can have a van where I can get up and walk around instead of being strapped into a seat continuously. Even better. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2016, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/19 "2016-07-21T23:55:11Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Not all jobs are the same, but I easily have a few hours a day that don’t require physical presence. My job can start as soon as I get in the car if I don’t have to pay attention to the road. 90 min there + 5 hours at work + 90 min home isn’t totally ridiculous. > > When all cars are fully automated, the risk of crashes will be negligible, and I can have a van where I can get up and walk around instead of being strapped into a seat continuously. Even better. The best part is that you will be able to do a long distance car ride after work on a friday. You could get a van with a bed, leave at 6pm on friday and wake up at 8am on saturday halfway across the country. Then do the same thing at 6pm on sunday. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2016, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479/20 "2016-07-22T00:48:18Z")
Well, I sure hope the cost of living plummets in the next few decades, seeing as how all I’m likely to see of my pension is a footnote about when they finally admitted I wasn’t getting one… The old-time futurists foresaw a world of extensive leisure time due to gains in productivity; for some reason they did not imagine that instead those with jobs would be expected to produce even more and “leisure” would be the lot of the unemployed. > [@jtur88](#): > > The Singularity is going to be a very interesting event if about 80% of the world’s population is excluded from it. Aside from the projection that everything “like ours” is going to cease to exist in any recognizable form, including “consumer society”. > > Sadly, so many of us taking for granted the western economy don’t “generally consider” 3/4 of the planet’s daily lifestyle, and have never exhibited any real interest in voluntarily surrendering their accustomed privilege. How will we deal it when they are still out there, in their billions, looking in through the fence at our lovely singularity. when we neatly bypass the step of “generally consider[ing] the cost of living to be just the cost of basic necessities.” Back when the Cold War ended I commented at one point when people were misquoting the “end of history” thing, that they seemed to ignore that out there there was still a half of a world who had nothing to lose but chains. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cost-of-living-is-poised-to-plummet-in-the-next-20-years-singularityhub/760479.md?page=2)