# Could a 20 megaton nuclear...

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-20-megaton-nuclear/319328>\
**Category:** Factual Questions\
**Created:** [August 30, 2005, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-20-megaton-nuclear/319328 "2005-08-30T20:49:09Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 2\
**Page:** 2

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**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\
**Post date:** [August 31, 2005, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-20-megaton-nuclear/319328/21 "2005-08-31T19:08:29Z")

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> [@grienspace](#):
>
> Could a 20 megaton nuclear bomb (the most powerful device ever produced in the US)

This isn’t accurate, for a start.

The Mk-41 three stage Deuterium-tritium fusion bomb had a yield of 25 Megatons. Given the weight range, it could theoretically have gone even higher. (None of the large versions were ever fired, so the actual high limit is unknown.)

See [http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/Allbombs.html](http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/Allbombs.html) for a complete listing.

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**Author:** ![Kevbo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e47774/32.png) [@Kevbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kevbo)\
**Post date:** [August 31, 2005, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-20-megaton-nuclear/319328/22 "2005-08-31T19:39:30Z")

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> [@DarrenS](#):
>
> Chaotic behavior means that a very small change in the initial inputs (the “initial conditions”) can cause huge differences down the line, in a seemingly unpredictable manner. It does _not_ simply mean that small changes in the initial conditions cause similarly small changes in the resulting states, which would, as you point out, be rather trivial.

Exactly. To elaborate further, a chaotic system can and typically is fairly predictable in the short term, i.e. not very sensative at all to the initial conditions, yet will be VERY sensitive in the long term. It is not just that parmeters are not measured closely enough to determine the ultimate outcome, and someday we could make accurate enough measurements, the idea is that there is NO finite resolution that is adequate.

Weather pretty much exactly fits this discription. Short term forcasts can be fairly accurate, but nobody seriously even tries predicting the weather on March 3 two years from now. (OK, theres “Ye Olde Farmers Almanac”) If you looked at the predicted track of Katrina, there was a huge error band at just 12 hours out.

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