# Could a "campaign reboot" win McCain back the independents? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 13, 2008, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729 "2008-10-13T16:17:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ladyfoxfyre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ad7895/32.png) [@ladyfoxfyre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ladyfoxfyre)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/1 "2008-10-13T16:17:19Z")
Per [this article](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/is-drudge-priming-mccain-reboot.html) originally linked by **askeptic** in [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=487652), there is a rumor that McCain may try to do a 180 on his campaign message in the twilight days before the election. My question is: Could this win back the independents and moderate republicans who have become disgusted with McCain’s campaign tactics? Is it going to be viewed as just another in the long line of desperate attempts to grab attention? Will it come off as desperate? ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/2 "2008-10-13T16:22:33Z")
I think you’re overstating McCain’s desperation. Almost all of you are, in fact. Zogby shows McCain [ahead](http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/zogby-national-polls.html) by 2 points. The “average” of like 20 different polls shows McCain barely behind Obama. Where in the world did the sudden “McCain is definitely forked” mentality come from? ---
**Author:** ![ultrafilter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/3d9bf3/32.png) [@ultrafilter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultrafilter)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/3 "2008-10-13T16:23:02Z")
It’s hard to say. On the one hand, McCain’s desperation seems to be part of the official narrative now. On the other, the media love anything that lets them sell this as a close race, and a campaign reboot might be just the thing. Mostly I expect it’s going to come down to where you get your news from. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/4 "2008-10-13T16:23:56Z")
> [@ladyfoxfyre](#): > > Per [this article](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/is-drudge-priming-mccain-reboot.html) originally linked by **askeptic** in [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=487652), there is a rumor that McCain may try to do a 180 on his campaign message in the twilight days before the election. > My question is: > Could this win back the independents and moderate republicans who have become disgusted with McCain’s campaign tactics? Is it going to be viewed as just another in the long line of desperate attempts to grab attention? Will it come off as desperate? Desperate and erratic. Will it help? Perhaps, to a small extent, not, however, enough to win. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/5 "2008-10-13T16:25:24Z")
McCain’s campaign has [released parts](http://thepage.time.com/mccains-monday-remarks-in-albuquerque/) of today’s speech-to-come. It looks like more of the same to me. McCain bitching about how much Obama sucks and offering vague “I know the answer!” solutions. In parts of it, McCain’s remarks about Obama just sound petulant. > [@](#): > > In short: Who is the real Barack Obama? But ask such questions and all you get in response is another barrage of angry insults. This past weekend’s ABC news poll says that people overwhelmingly think McCain’s been running a negative campaign and that Obama’s has been issue based. I don’t see this speech changing that direction. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/6 "2008-10-13T16:27:32Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > I think you’re overstating McCain’s desperation. Almost all of you are, in fact. Zogby shows McCain [ahead](http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/zogby-national-polls.html) by 2 points. That’s a Zogby Interactive internet poll. The traditional Zogby poll has Obama ahead by 4. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/7 "2008-10-13T16:28:26Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > I think you’re overstating McCain’s desperation. Almost all of you are, in fact. Zogby shows McCain [ahead](http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/zogby-national-polls.html) by 2 points. The “average” of like 20 different polls shows McCain barely behind Obama. Where in the world did the sudden “McCain is definitely forked” mentality come from? That poll is a. almost three weeks old and b. crap. Zogby’s interactive polls never agree with anyone else, because they’re not actually reliable polls. A self-selecting audience is not going to give a good result. By the way, where are the polls you’re finding that show McCain barely behind? From what I’ve seen, Obama has a good lead in the Electoral College. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/848f3c/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_Dunlop)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/8 "2008-10-13T16:29:35Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > I think you’re overstating McCain’s desperation. Almost all of you are, in fact. Zogby shows McCain [ahead](http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/zogby-national-polls.html) by 2 points. The “average” of like 20 different polls shows McCain barely behind Obama. Where in the world did the sudden “McCain is definitely forked” mentality come from? Well if you’re going to use polling data that’s 3 weeks old, you’re going to have an outdated perception of the race. It’s not really sudden, unless you’re still linking to polls released 9/25. Real Clear Politics’ average is 6.8% lead for Obama, which he’s had for quite a while. [Electoral-vote.com](http://Electoral-vote.com) shows the race at 346 to 181 in Obama’s favor. Fivethirtyeight has it at 351 to 187 for Obama with their model showing a 93.8% chance of Obama winning. McCain is fighting to win traditionally republican strongholds like North Carolina and Virginia. Even North Dakota is within Obama’s grasp, a state that Bush won in 2004 by 27 points. ([http://www.grandforksherald.com/ap/index.cfm?page=view&id=D93PHQN80](http://www.grandforksherald.com/ap/index.cfm?page=view&id=D93PHQN80)) ---
**Author:** ![ultrafilter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/3d9bf3/32.png) [@ultrafilter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultrafilter)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/9 "2008-10-13T16:31:43Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > I think you’re overstating McCain’s desperation. Almost all of you are, in fact. Zogby shows McCain [ahead](http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/zogby-national-polls.html) by 2 points. The “average” of like 20 different polls shows McCain barely behind Obama. Where in the world did the sudden “McCain is definitely forked” mentality come from? Polls and straightforward polls of polls are slightly misleading due to the structure of the electoral college. [FiveThirtyEight](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com) and [Electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com), the two sites that I trust to do better modeling, are both predicting roughly 350 EVs for Obama. For what it’s worth, [RealClearPolitics](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/) agrees with that number in their no toss up states electoral map (although I don’t know how they allocate the EVs of toss up states). [Intrade](http://www.intrade.com) has roughly the same number, but I don’t know how seriously I take their predictions. ---
**Author:** ![ladyfoxfyre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ad7895/32.png) [@ladyfoxfyre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ladyfoxfyre)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/10 "2008-10-13T16:31:56Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > That poll is a. almost three weeks old and b. crap. Zogby’s interactive polls never agree with anyone else, because they’re not actually reliable polls. A self-selecting audience is not going to give a good result. By the way, where are the polls you’re finding that show McCain barely behind? From what I’ve seen, Obama has a good lead in the Electoral College. In fact, **Mosier** ’s same cite shows Obama significantly ahead in every one of the [Electoral College](http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/general-election/electoral-college-results.html) predictions. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/11 "2008-10-13T16:32:44Z")
> [@ladyfoxfyre](#): > > Could this win back the independents and moderate republicans who have become disgusted with McCain’s campaign tactics? Only if it includes one of those memory-flashy thingees from the _Men In Black_ movies… ---
**Author:** ![Terrifel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c68b51/32.png) [@Terrifel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terrifel)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/12 "2008-10-13T16:34:16Z")
> [@ArchiveGuy](#): > > Only if it includes one of those memory-flashy thingees from the _Men In Black_ movies… In a way, the media is its own memory-flashy thingee. ---
**Author:** ![Strassia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e8c25b/32.png) [@Strassia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Strassia)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/13 "2008-10-13T16:42:12Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > That’s a Zogby Interactive internet poll. > > The traditional Zogby poll has Obama ahead by 4. [Obama, 47, opened a 6-point lead over McCain in a Reuters/C-SPAN/ **Zogby** poll released on Sunday.](http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE4998X420081013) ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/14 "2008-10-13T16:46:35Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > I think you’re overstating McCain’s desperation. Almost all of you are, in fact. Zogby shows McCain [ahead](http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/zogby-national-polls.html) by 2 points. The “average” of like 20 different polls shows McCain barely behind Obama. Where in the world did the sudden “McCain is definitely forked” mentality come from? Aside from it being an interactive, that poll in your link is from three weeks ago! If it makes you feel even better, Rasmussen [has McCain and Obama tied.](http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/rasmussen-reports-national-polls.html) 😛 ---
**Author:** ![phungi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/phungi/32/395_2.png) [@phungi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phungi)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/15 "2008-10-13T16:48:50Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > I think you’re overstating McCain’s desperation. Almost all of you are, in fact. Zogby shows McCain [ahead](http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/zogby-national-polls.html) by 2 points. The “average” of like 20 different polls shows McCain barely behind Obama. Where in the world did the sudden “McCain is definitely forked” mentality come from? Those polls are weeks old… click on “[Latest Polls per State](http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/general-election/electoral-college-results.html)” (edit: sorry for the duplicate info.. didn’t read the thread first) ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/16 "2008-10-13T17:02:50Z")
Wait a sec, the electoral college is a good thing, now? I thought Democrats were calling for it be destroyed back in 2000. ---
**Author:** ![Goblinboy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/3be4f8/32.png) [@Goblinboy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Goblinboy)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/17 "2008-10-13T17:11:16Z")
Too late for me, I’ve already voted for Obama, and I’ve voted Republican all the time before this. Not that I don’t think McCain is going to win Indiana, but it’ll be a squeeker. With the increase in early voting, is an October Surprise or ‘reboot’ too late in the season to matter? I’ll be interested in how many people voted before Nov. 4th when this is all over. ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/18 "2008-10-13T17:12:23Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Wait a sec, the electoral college is a good thing, now? I thought Democrats were calling for it be destroyed back in 2000. Who’s saying it’s a good thing? It’s what will decide the election, so it’s the thing to watch. ---
**Author:** ![ultrafilter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/3d9bf3/32.png) [@ultrafilter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultrafilter)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/19 "2008-10-13T17:13:13Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Wait a sec, the electoral college is a good thing, now? I thought Democrats were calling for it be destroyed back in 2000. Where are you getting that from? > [@Goblinboy](#): > > Too late for me, I’ve already voted for Obama, and I’ve voted Republican all the time before this. Not that I don’t think McCain is going to win Indiana, but it’ll be a squeeker. > > With the increase in early voting, is an October Surprise or ‘reboot’ too late in the season to matter? I’ll be interested in how many people voted before Nov. 4th when this is all over. There are enough states that don’t have early voting that a late game-changing event can matter. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729/20 "2008-10-13T17:19:07Z")
Who said it’s a _good_ thing? We’re just saying that it is a thing. Based on the rules by which we run our elections, McCain is overwhelmingly unlikely to win the election. If we used different rules, he might be slightly more likely to win (10% instead of 6%), but we don’t use different rules, so McCain is in fact desparate. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-a-campaign-reboot-win-mccain-back-the-independents/467729.md?page=2)