OK, I’m gonna specify and restate the question in a slightly different vein. While I think the sleeper cell/terrorist concept is interesting and apropos, it offers far too many variables for solid debate.
I want to look at the question in a more specific organized manner.
Here’s my proposal.
A organized modern military chooses to invade a strategic target city as a jumping off point for a invasion.
Suppose the sovereign nation of Rogue and it’s well trained and equiped army chooses to execute a paratrooper assault on the city of Jacksonville, Florida to seize and control the city long enough to land heavy armor, artillery and reinforcements via the sea ports.
Jacksonville is a city of around 750,000. Not the biggest of the big, but certainly has a substantial police force with all the basic SWAT and tactical response units and heavy equipment like helicopters and armored assault vehicles.
Lets assume that the drop planes are unnoticed until they reach landfall, and the that fictional naval landing force is concealed.
I like the Jacksonville example because the surrounding metroplex isn’t of the scale of the major cities, and it doesn’t have another large city within an couple hours drive for non-military support. I don’t know what military installations are narby, but lets ignore them for the sake of arguement.
I’m far from a military buff, but having just read Band of Brothers I’m picturing a WWII style battalion of elite paratroopers dropping in. They have assault rifles, a few hundred rounds of ammo per man, mortars, snipers, and grenades. Hopefully one of the SDMB experts can update this to modern day standards. Do current paratrooper battalions have any anti-aircraft weapons, jeeps or other vehicles, or other important weapons?
So thats the scenario I’m picturing. The cops would be caught off guard, and the invading nation would have excellent inteligence as to where the police stations and communication systems are since its in public domain. The air-drop went perfectly with a quick ogranization and well chosen insertion points. They have body armour and night vision equipment.
I’m thinking the military would be in very good shape. The big catch being that the vast majority of the police’s guns won’t penetrate typical military body armour, but the typical military assault rifle will pierce police vests. The military would have communication on par with the cops, and probably better. The police’s would be easily picked up on scanners eliminating any chance of suprise in the counter-attack, not to mention the lack of skill in something massive, and the likelyhood of there being massive clutter once things got hot. The military would have secure frequencies and singular command. From a numerical standpoint, I figure there’d be something like 500 invaders and 5000-10000 officers of varying readiness. (how much of the above 35k in NYC are armed and/or trained and not simply administrative?)
The invading force wouldn’t need to entirely wipe out the police, but to simply take out the infrastructure, and take complete control of the port, while passing through the city.
While its obvious that once the US military moibilzed in response, it’d all be for nothing, but could they accomplish this mission? I think they could with suprisingly few casualties. The armed citizens would probably inflict more damage to the invaders than the police would. However I’m not sure that’d be able to stop the troops.
Any thoughts about this specific scenario?