# Could Covid-19 actually result in less overall deaths in the USA? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 8, 2020, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350 "2020-04-08T15:32:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/41 "2020-04-08T22:37:08Z")
Track down their papers? It’s a survey not a round up of published work. Eta: or you mean their pedigree? I already said I didn’t discount any of their credentials, just whether they are directly working on covid-19. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/42 "2020-04-08T22:52:24Z")
And they aren’t in tune with each other. They all have quite difference confidence levels and the best guesses are pretty evenly distributed between 500k-250k. And I’ll ask again, do you have anything that someone is willing to attach their name to that has a 200k as a low end estimate? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/43 "2020-04-18T16:06:22Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Mixing up worldwide statistics with US is fair. Ignoring that, though, you’ve also proclaimed that a bunch of computer epidemic modelers didn’t do any simulations to make their predictions and said that their predictions were “wrong” when talking about people presenting the scope of options. Thought you’d find this interesting: > [@](#): > > In this week’s survey, the experts were asked to report the proportion of their responses that were based on forecasting models they were directly involved with building, as opposed to “general knowledge about disease dynamics.” They said 44 percent of their responses were based on models they’ve helped build, up from\*\* 32 percent in a similar question two weeks ago.\*\* > **[Experts Think The U.S. COVID-19 Death Toll Will Hit 50,000 By The End Of April](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-think-the-u-s-covid-19-death-toll-will-hit-50000-by-the-end-of-april/)** > > The expert consensus is that reported deaths will increase to around 47,000 by May 1, although they think there could be as many as 82,000 by that time. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/44 "2020-04-18T16:10:56Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > The 538 panel of experts was quite off last time. No, they were not. They were the only major poll aggregator that was SPOT ON. Their model showed a HUGE possibility of Trump winning the electoral college — about 25%, on the eve of Election Day. That means, every four times they ran the model, in one of those times, TRUMP FLAT-OUT _WON_. I have been trying to explain this for nearly four years now. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/45 "2020-04-18T16:12:12Z")
It’s not a poll aggregate so no idea what you’re talking about. Eta: oh, you’re completely off topic. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/46 "2020-04-18T16:13:55Z")
Sorry, I may have misunderstood what you meant by “panel of experts…last time.” If so, carry on… ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/47 "2020-04-18T16:14:59Z")
You realize this isn’t an Elections thread? ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/48 "2020-04-18T16:34:12Z")
In the US, another factor to consider is death because of a lack of health insurance. It will push up the death count in other categories, but it will show up somewhere. According to [url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2775760/]this[/ur] paper, published in 2009, there were 47million uninsured in the US and 45,000 deaths because of a lack of insurance. The paper doesn’t discuss how the death rate would change with a change in uninsured, but just using those two numbers the rate appears to be 0.1%. For every 1M uninsured, there will be 1000 people who die as a result. There have been over 10M jobs lost in the US, and most of them would have lost their health insurance along with it. Therefore, at least 10,000 more deaths in the US if those jobs and insurance are not recovered. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/49 "2020-04-18T16:41:30Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > Could Covid-19 actually result in **less** overall deaths in the USA? Fewer. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/50 "2020-04-18T19:24:53Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Fewer. So you think it will result in fewer deaths? That’s highly unlikely, except perhaps over decades. Because of course, you wouldnt come in here just to make a grammer snark. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2020, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/51 "2020-04-19T12:38:17Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > You realize this isn’t an Elections thread? I was tripped up by what could be “the last time.” Maybe “the last time.” I don’t know. _Oh, no!_ There’s too much pain and too much sorrow. Guess I’ll feel the same tomorrow. Now, _that’s_ appropriate for this forum! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Frankenstein\_Monster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ccd318/32.png) [@Frankenstein\_Monster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frankenstein_Monster)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2020, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/52 "2020-04-19T12:52:20Z")
Hat tip to a post by **ftg** in [another thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=22249394&postcount=165) I found two countries (so far) that actually publish weekly deaths of all causes on a relatively timely basis (not years afterward)! UK: [Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional Statistical bulletins](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/previousReleases) Netherlands: [More deaths have been registered in recent weeks than the average reported over this amount of time in the past](https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2020/15/mortality-rising-further) So generalizing to other countries, no, on balance COVID-19 will cause **a lot more** overall deaths than there would have been otherwise. Anybody know if these stats are available in any other countries? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2020, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/53 "2020-04-19T13:00:14Z")
Don’t forget to account for the deaths caused by social distancing, quarantines, etc. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2020, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/54 "2020-04-19T13:10:36Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > I was tripped up by what could be “the last time.” > Maybe “the last time.” > I don’t know. > _Oh, no!_ > > There’s too much pain and too much sorrow. Guess I’ll feel the same tomorrow. Now, _that’s_ appropriate for this forum! 😉 It’s just a little annoying because I already explained what “last time” I meant in post 20. This is a ongoing series where 538 surveys some epidemiological experts. Sage Rat was under the mistaken impression that it was really a survey of their projection models. Some answers were based on models, most are not. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2020, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/55 "2020-04-19T13:21:26Z")
Got it. Apologies. I’m obviously conditioned by three and half years of correcting folks on their “538 got the 2016 elections wrong” mistake. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2020, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350/56 "2020-04-19T13:48:51Z")
Lol, I get it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-covid-19-actually-result-in-less-overall-deaths-in-the-usa/851350.md?page=2)