Could everything we know be re-learned by a new generation?

The US has been averaging close to four million annual births for some decades now so that puts the initial number of survivors somewhere around 60 million (in the US alone).

That number would be quickly reduced by the breakdowns in society and the supply chains. Kids are pretty resilient, though, and maybe half of them get through the early years to reach full adulthood and the peak of their physical powers.

What I won’t even try to predict is how quickly they would reorganize and get the lights back on. Resumption of electrical power goes a long way to ensuring survival.

The medical knowledge lost would be a formidable obstacle.

I did not read all the posts. I am assuming the question refers to regaining current knowledge with available records and not some specific scenario.

The answer is a qualified no. A portion of what we know involves apprenticeship, is not recorded in an easy format, are trade secrets, etc.

But this stuff was all learned by people, at one point, with no available records at all. In the absence of major societal changes, much of what is known would eventually be relearned though this would take time. It would take time to fly planes, but those motivated to do so originally did not have the benefit of manuals. Yes, there would be problems and these would eventually be solved. A large majority of what is now known would be figured out again if access to the available information existed - and this is more accessible now than perhaps ever.

Just knowing that things like flight were actually possible and been done before would be huge step up on the Wright Brothers. Knowing that interchangeable parts and production lines were more efficient than hand crafting parts would be a huge hurdle that wouldn’t be needed to overcome.

There are still basic scientific books from the 1800s around that are printed on old paper, not the modern acidic stuff. Obviously anybody depending entirely on such books would have large gaps in their knowledge, but it would be a start. Large chunks of basic chemistry and math, for example, haven’t changed much in the last 150 years.

Was there something I missed in the OP about buildings collapsing? Why are the libraries exposed to the elements?

Libraries: Just a tree falling over into a window breaks the envelope. Even today, with adults around to make quick repairs, libraries lose books to extreme weather. (And - One librarian in Florida joked that he would start cultivating spiders in the bookstacks in order to prevent bookworm and insect damage. That would be a bitter joke in the proposed scenario.)

https://www.library.illinois.edu/ala/2018/11/29/ghosts-of-disasters-past-floods-hurricanes-and-earthquakes-of-american-library-history/

Damage to Libraries due to Water Related Disasters:
https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3017&context=libphilprac

Certainly for the past 150 years or so, learning has predominantly entailed using written / electronic records. The stuff that was “all learned” without them is ancient stuff, not powerplants, aeroplanes, advanced medicine etc. etc. Standing on the shoulders of giants does not happen by word of mouth and home experimentation.

No one is there to maintain or support them as most of the population is mysteriously dusted.

I’m sure some of the older kids would know that, and I’m certain some would definitely be raiding the libraries and such to get what books they think will be vital for their survival. I think some people are just having trouble grasping the scale of what would be happening. Even if we leave aside the kid angle, people in such a desperate situation aren’t necessarily going to be thinking calmly and rationally, and certainly aren’t going to be thinking long term until they have their own immediate survival situation stabilized. I doubt this is going to happen for a long time, despite short term abundant resources lying around. Certainly not with the kinds of trauma and psychological damage this would do to most of the survivors old enough to understand.

You are more optimistic. I don’t think that adults would handle this particular well or all that much better. I think 16-year-old kids are going to be a volatile mix especially, but as I said earlier even if you changed this to 20-40 year olds I would still say it would be very, very bad.

That is a great story and I’m impressed. However, these kids still had a modern, working infrastructure, their parents, grandparents, and anyone else they know who is older than 16 didn’t just disappear, they had food on the table and a stable world to do things in. In this OP they would have none of that. I don’t think most would be in any shape to build bike ramps or band together…suddenly they would be on their own, scared, confused, and with no one to turn too.

Then you have another angle. I do think some kids would band together because they are already together in a way…gangs. I was in a gang when I was 16 (I was in a gang when I was 14). Sure, usually such gangs are led by older ‘kids’ (adults most often), but it’s still a structure. It won’t be a particularly high percentage of these 16 and fewer survivors, but they will have some sort of structure and at least nominal cohesion. That will appeal to many of the survivors. You could spin what happens next in several different ways…and, my WAG is most of them would happen, running the gammit from really bad to good. Point is, these survivors are going to be going off in all directions, actions-wise, doing all sorts of irrational stuff.

Still going to be millions of bodies to bury though, but yeah, would have been much much worse had the people not 16 years or younger died and left a body. I assumed something like the Endgame dusting to get rid of that part of the issue.

20+% isn’t dusted, though, and some of them are going to be turning to those books in that 20 year window…

Plus, they’re just sitting there in libraries, so not exactly exposed to the wind, rain and sun. Sure, some libraries are going to be hit by some natural disaster in that time, but you’re saying all or most libraries are going to be “exposed to the elements”, and unless the actual buildings collapse, that’s just not the case, unless you’re using some idiosyncratic definition of “exposed to the elements”

It really depends on the time frame that people will be getting back these sorts of things. Generally, in the risk and disaster classes, I’ve taken, there is a general rule of thumb that when a society loses over 50% of its population (and this would be a random percentage, not 16 and younger only survivors) it collapses and everyone just stops doing anything and goes home to shelter in place or whatever until things blow over. In this case, there will literally be a complete and total collapse with no waiting until it blows over. There won’t be any truck drivers, train engineers, subway controllers, doctors, or any of the other myriad occupations that make the modern world work. Zero…or as close to zero as possible (I’m sure there are some 16-year-olds out there who can do some of this, but it’s going to be a handful over a continent-sized country, and this doesn’t even address the rest of the world). Like I said, even if we were talking about 20-40-year-olds being the only survivors they would crash hard…but in this group, we are talking about the oldest being 16 and going down from there. There is no way they are going to be caring for libraries and the like for years, probably decades if not centuries.

Based on shows like Life After Humans (noted above), buildings will begin deteriorating almost at once, as will conditions. Within a year, a lot of glass will be broken and in places, (like DC as the LoC was mentioned) major flooding will be occurring. Within 10 years those buildings will be open to the elements. Just look at Pripyat as an example…I recall a video after 10 years showing one of the schools there with no windows, all the stuff left behind rotting and dust, dirt, and even vegetation starting to grow inside. After 40 years the buildings were all highly dangerous to even enter, with many starting to collapse. Within 100 years they figure most of the biggest ones will start to fall.

Like I said several times, this won’t happen everywhere. I’m certain in some isolated areas and towns the survivors will pool together, will collect at least some of the books and other things, will build some sort of society, etc etc. But overall? No way…you can’t go from 320 million to whatever is the survivor count initially (maybe 40 million based on another poster up thread) and be able to do more than local survival, especially since a percentage of that 40 million (half? more?) are going to die because they are babies, toddlers, and small kids or kids who are isolated and on their own and have no idea what to do…or kids who get a cut or get sick or the myriad other things that would kill anyone in this situation. Myself, I’d be surprised if, in 10 years there were 5 million survivors in the US, all scattered across the continent.

Sure - in the immediate aftermath of disaster. Not a decade or more down the line. I’m thinking those teens with any kind of brain are going to be in those libraries sooner, rather than later. Within a year, tops. So I guess I fundamentally disagree that it’ll be decades or centuries before they’re in there.

In any case, I’m not disagreeing that the actual issue will be immediate survivability, and all the practicalities attached to that.

I’m not disagreeing with you either here. :slight_smile: I just posit that the survivors are going to be highly focused on growing food and surviving, perhaps in their copious spare time building out local capabilities like steam and electricity, maybe saving some of the stuff in their immediate area. Heck, one of the things they will have to relearn, maybe from books or just trial and error, is how to have kids again. Seems basic, and I think they would be ahead of our long-ago ancestors, but that alone is going to be a real struggle without the knowledge of modern medicine.

If they really are down to only a few million or even 10 million scattered across the country then I just don’t see how they could do more. I do agree with you and the others that they WILL be going to their local libraries and other information repositories, but it will be focused on immediate needs for their survival. Growing food, medicine, maybe electricity and steam or things like that…they aren’t going to be saving most of the rest for a long, long time, and certainly not relearning particle physics or cosmology or the rest, which was what the OP was asking, at least how I see it. We couldn’t…and wouldn’t…relearn what we know today by the stuff left behind. We’d save some, start a lot higher up than in previous collapses, but it would be, IMHO, rediscovering a lot we lost, not relearning it from what’s left behind.

Try “The Earth Abides” by George R. Stewart. The plot is essentially that a plague does away with a large percentage of the population (all ages). The remaining adults try to keep knowledge available by schooling the children, who don’t see how it is relevant to their new lives. Eventually they stop learning and preserving things. At the end of the book, they have a pre-Colombian civilization.

Sure, and that’s where the books come in right away, like you said. They’re not going to be able to get that stuff from youtube videos.

But saving the gardening and childbirth books is going to incidentally result in better treatment/conditions for the other books, too, is what I’m saying.

I think availability of raw materials won’t be an issue because of the likelihood of a very massive decrease in human population from having everyone over 16 magicked away. This will lead to widespread societal disruption as others have said, and basically a few hundred years (at least) of a “dark age” where a good bit of modern societal features collapse. This will likely lead to greater death rates among the surviving population and it may take a few generations for the population decline to stabilize.

While we won’t have easily acquired copper, iron etc that in Bronze Age times were frequently found just on the surface, we’ll have a huge amount of stores and scrap of those already processed metals, but nothing like the current industrial economy consuming massive amounts of them every hour of every day, so for a reduced human population it is likely “scrapping” will be able to cover all needs for things like metals and fossil fuels for a significant period of time–particularly because again, during the “Dark Age” some of these things won’t even be getting used as much.

And they can keep warm by burning all of those law books on the high selves. Leave the technical books with neat pictures in them alone.

It doesn’t sound like @XT is particularly open to other opinions on it, but I think he’s just massively underestimating how much stored information we have on physical media and massively overestimating how quickly it would all just “dissolve” into the elements, like we live on some kind of planet that’s akin to Venus where everything just melts instantly without constant interventions.

I’ve literally done house tear downs on homes abandoned for decades where there were still fully recoverable books inside. These were not facilities made to house books, but homes, many of which had been scavenged by homeless people and etc, and this is in Virginia, not a place with the nicest climate (but also not the worst) for preservation.

Certain large cities actually exist in areas that basically should be underwater, and only continual maintenance keeps that from occurring. D.C. and good portions of New York City fit this criteria, and all the water coming in will lead to more rapid building collapses. FWIW, the “Life After People” episode on the Library of Congress posits it would still be fine 5 years later, and 500 years or so later is how long it expected it would take for the big dome to collapse in the Jefferson building of the LOC.

Note that almost every town in the United States with more than 10,000 people has a library in it. Many are “Carnegie Libraries” that were built with masonry and brick construction from the late 19th century that is rugged as fuck, some of these buildings could become forts or defensive positions to be honest.

There will certainly be lots of books decayed and lost, but the scale of the availability of stored knowledge is just not being appreciated, no way all of it is gone. Just about anywhere in the United States you can find enough stored data on books, that if you’re smart and have the time, you could give yourself sort of the basics of a modern day K-12 and even basic college education. More advanced specialist stuff you won’t as easily acquire and replace, but what you’ll have is the frameworks for re-education, which is something previous peoples never had when their societies collapsed.

There’s also going to be wild differences from area to area as to how survival-stressed people are. There will absolutely be areas where people are fairly stable and able to feed themselves within a decade or so, and many of those people will scavenge books for entertainment and other reasons if nothing else. Some of the smarter earliest survivors will scavenge books because they know they lack knowledge essential to survival, and some of these books might contain that knowledge, it is unlikely that they wouldn’t make repeat trips to the libraries–and as I said, in some towns the old Carnegie Library might make a pretty good base of operations, the idea some of these old heavy duty masonry buildings that are built like forts are just going to be devalued and abandoned, and people are going to live in a hole in the ground in the woods when better shelter is available…seems highly suspicious.

I am open to other opinions…this is a discussion after all…I just don’t agree with the conclusions as they don’t match with my own thinking on this. Basically, I think that several of you are massively overestimating how organized and motivated and able people will be, how easily they will be able to cope with what has happened AND survive, and also you are underestimating, again IMHO, how quickly many if not most structures will deteriorate without any sort of maintenance and climate control…and this doesn’t even count those destroyed in fires, hurricanes, twisters and all manner of destruction, both natural and from the survivors.

Interesting, because my shed in Maryland basically didn’t even take a decade before the materials in there were completely unusable. This isn’t to say your anecdote is wrong or invalid, but that has not been my experience…nor is it backed up by stuff I’ve seen and read wrt actual abandoned structures. And, IMHO, most structures, including libraries, are going to be abandoned by and large or looted for decades before there are enough people with enough spare time to be going back and getting stuff that isn’t directly related to immediate survival.

Again, I go back to the OP…‘could everything we know be re-learned by a new generation?’ Not rediscovered…relearned. And, again, I say no, with no qualifications. The survivors aren’t going to relearn the higher sciences, higher technology, etc…there is no way. They will, down the road (centuries most likely) rediscover a lot of things that were lost, perhaps even using fragments of what is still around or in well-preserved areas (like the aforementioned Iron Mountain, or other DR repositories or just buildings through luck or environment that survive more or less intact)…but it will be fragmented, not the whole loaf.

This is just an interesting discussion, and, really, there is no need for us to be on the same page. Be a boring thread if that were the case. :slight_smile:

I see it as a pyramid. Certainly, some books and topics are going to be nearly ubiquitous…like the K-12 stuff you mentioned. Probably even a lot of the college material. If there are 10 million copies of first year physics in the US (just a WAG) out there, odds are many will survive just from luck. However, as you start going up the scale for higher and higher and more and more specialized levels of knowledge and data, it’s going to narrow…and the chances of that stuff still being an available drop, until you have some things that have very few people who have it on printed media today. Odds are much of that will be lost.

This is why I said that this collapse would probably take the survivors back to 19th to early 20th-century technology levels, with some things higher in spots depending on how things play out. It wouldn’t be back to the stone age, or even the bronze or iron age…IMHO, and it COULD be, I just don’t think so with everything that would be available…but I think it will be back to early electricity and steam power for a long, long time, with the critical focus being on the production of food (of these 16 and less year old survivors, how many are farmers…or have ever even grown anything? My WAG…less than 1%), at least rudimentary medicine (same thing here), and other basic survival. Hell, initially it’s probably just going to be a matter of the most rudimentary survival and trying to build some sort of group to even start to do those next things. How many 16-year-olds or less have given birth…and how many of them did it on their own or with others like them outside of a hospital? That alone will be a huge challenge. Again, I think people are vastly underestimating what this will entail, as well as just the psychological and mental trauma going on.

The few hardy survivors will be smart and tough and able to tackle the enormous tasks ahead of them with maximum strength and energy. But I have no idea how bad the problem will be of warring factions and violent anarchy that will reduce everything to simple survival. The best thing to do is to cooperate with each other but we’ve seen how difficult that can be even in times of ease.

There would still be over a million kids alive in my state of Maryland after the oldpocalyse.