A Dora-type of delivery will hardly be useful. The original gun was meant for siege warfare. It’s range won’t exceed 40 kilometers. You have to set up a circular twin-track and then assemble the entire gun on top of that (God knows how fast you can do all those.)
You might as well study the plans of both the US and Soviet SAC’s on how to best nuke each other. From what I can gather, the Soviets were banking mainly on their larger land area, and more more dispersed population, to for greater potential to survive an all out nuclear exchange.
Don’t forget we’re waiting for an answer to which country your German scientists discovered fission, why the US would not develop a fighter defense on the first indication of an atomic bomb, why the US were going to locate their nuclear facilities in the AmerikaBomber range, and why the US wasn’t going to relocate the citizens and factories from the East Coast, among other counterpoints.
I’m not saying the it was impossible for Germany to either build an atomic bomb or a long range heavy bomber which could reach America with an atomic payload, I’m saying that it’s absolutely impossible for them to do it in 1940 - 41.
The only way they could would be through divine intervention or someone going back in time to show them exactly how, and even then, they may not have the time or resources, depending on when they started.
In our universe, Germany was planning on the war to begin later, around '42. Hitler didn’t anticipate France and Britain drawing a red line on the Polish border. Not was it a forgone conclusion that they could defeat the French so easily.
Alt-hist are littered with believe in Hitler’s inevitable early successes and posit that if things were just a little better he would have conquered the world. They all require Germans to be perfect and the Allies to be fools. This is simply one more of the genre.
A little hand waving away of all the problems, right? Just as one other issue, your JU-290s didn’t have the range for a return trip, so you’re inventing a new solution, not planned, designed, tested or built and they’ll do it overnight.
Strategic alliances are more powerful than even a bomb. Remember that the Japanese came close to actually threatening CONUS when they captured two Aleutian islands. That brought some of their bombers within range of the Bremerton aircraft plant in Washington state. An example of a trans-oceanic foothold. Imagine if Germany had knocked out both Britain and the Soviet Union, and Japan was able to control the Pacific and capture both Midway and Hawaii.
Or maybe just have the Germans be just a little less idiotic in a few areas. For instance, Hitler was absolutely obsessed with gigantic tanks and the Germans wasted a lot of money on them. Who knows why? Maybe he had a dream one night about a giant tank rolling over Europe. If he had been similarly obsessed with a nuclear bomb instead, history would have been different.
If we’re just quibbling about a year or so in development time, then to be honest I don’t see the point in arguing further. You see it as magic; I see it as a few lucky breaks in development. We aren’t going to agree on that front.
I’m not sure what your point is. Not returning it makes it easier. They don’t even need a bomb bay: they just set the plane to detonate after a timer goes off, and with an altimeter backup. The pilots bail a few minutes beforehand (not that they’re likely to survive, but no matter). The US had very little homeland air defense at the time. I doubt they even had radar.
Not that they’d have needed it, but they’d have years to plan the attack. They knew what planes were in development, what their capacity was, and have a rough idea of the bomb mass. They knew it would be a one-way trip and develop a plan. There’s no actual technology needed.
I do think you’d want a parallel attack if possible. It would require waiting until they had a small stockpile.
It would be “useful” because it is a platform for delivering a large, heavy warhead, from outside the weapon’s blast radius, and with hardware available at the same time the '41 bomb is. For large targets—cities, strongholds, perhaps salients—and conditions where you can protect the gun long enough for it to be used—and the Dora-type guns were used in combat—it would be more effective than either “no delivery system available” or “drag the Bomb up to the front line, and light the fuse.”
Actually not. They had zero chance of capturing Hawaii. We’ve done that a number of times here so I’m going to go through all the reasons.
Except that Germany could build gigantic tanks and there are no certainties of building a bomb. Speaking of which, you are still side stepping all of the issues which I brought up.
We are not quibbling over a year or so. If Germany could manage to build the bomb sans the Jewish physicists (had a chance to look up that reference yet, still waiting), it would not be before the Allies were in a position to bomb it. You’ve made no case outside of fantasies for how they could get it in 1940. Speaking of which, you are still side stepping all of the issues which I brought up.
As I suspected, you really don’t know that much about this, do you? People with even a passing interest know that the US had radar in Hawaii during the Pearl Harbor attack.
See, this is what I’m talking about. You are counting on the US being stupid. Germany would have to use atomic bombs against Britain and the USSR first, then the US. You need the FDR to pick up the fiddle and not even attempt to defend the US.
Speaking of which, you are still side stepping all of the other issues which I brought up.
We’re playing whack-a-mole here. Let’s take it really slow:
How do they build a nuke? When, where and by whom? Who’s doing their theoretical physics? When do they start and how long does it take?
Nuclear fission is discovered in December 1938 in Berlin. Two British scientists figure out the idea of using uranium to make nuclear weapon in the summer of 1939. The UK government is convinced in the spring of 1940, some information is shared with the US in the fall by the Tizard Mission, and the details are finally shared in summer of 1941. The US nuclear weapon program starts properly after Pearl Harbor in December 1941. After a monumental effort, by July 1945 they are able to scrape together just enough enriched uranium to make one nuclear bomb. Little Boy is dropped on Hiroshima a month later. At this time, enough uranium is being enriched to make about 4 bombs a year.
And as for the plutonium bomb:
Plutonium is discovered in Berkeley in December 1940 by bombarding uranium with a beam of particles produced by a cyclotron. The trace quantities produced are used to study its properties. By the end of 1943, a total of 2 mg of plutonium is produced by this method in the entire US. It is recognized that a nuclear reactor will be needed to produce reasonable quantities of plutonium. First attempts are made in 1941. They fail primarily because sufficiently pure uranium and either heavy water or graphite cannot yet be produced in useful quantities. The first sustained chain reaction is demonstrated in December 1942. This is followed by a pilot reactor a year later, and the first production reactor goes online in September 1944. The first macroscopic quantities of plutonium are available in April 1944. The first production sample of 80 grams is shipped to Los Alamos in February 1945. The first bomb is built in July. By this point, enough plutonium is being produced to build about 1 bomb per month. This go up to about 4 per month in 1947.
When it’s laid out like this, I hope it’s obvious to all that the idea of the Germans making more than 3 per month, “eking out” a few more kilotons along the way all while having vastly inferior uranium supply and industrial compacity to the American effort is indeed miracle levels of history changing.
After the discovery of nuclear fission, some scientist in Germany comes up with the idea of separating uranium-235 from uranium ore and making a bomb out of it. After Britain declares war on Germany, somebody is able to convince Hitler that a nuclear bomb could come useful. German nuclear program gets going in the fall of 1939 and gets access to huge resources. It is able to duplicate the US effort. Germany has the first uranium nuclear bomb in the summer of 1943. They use it against some concentration of Soviet troops. The next bomb is available in October and is used, perhaps, against London. By this time, the allied bombers have located the massive uranium enrichment facility and bombed it to rubble. Germans try to set up several dispersed plants, but they never scrape together enough enriched uranium for a third bomb.
Back in early 1939, some enterprising German scientist is able to acquire a cyclotron from the UK. He is able to discover plutonium in late 1939. He proposes the construction of nuclear reactors. Having unlimited funding, they decide to build a heavy water plant of their own, rather than mess around with the one in Norway. The plant is producing heavy water by the end of 1940. At the same time, Germans have secured a large source of uranium ore in Bohemia, and developed a process to turn it into very pure uranium metal. The chain reaction is demonstrated at some German university in late 1941. This is followed by a test reactor and several production reactors. All of this infrastructure is ignored by allied bombers. Germans have the first plutonium bomb in summer of 1944, and produce them at the rate of 1 per month.
The first bomb is used to delay the Allied invasion of Normandy by taking out the temporary harbor facilities. The invasion is delayed by a month or two. The remaining bombs are used against the advancing Soviet Army. Several thousand soldiers are killed each time. But since the Soviet Army has been loosing tens of thousands per week since 1941, they do not mind too much. Desperate, Hitler threatens to bomb Paris and Amsterdam, unless the allies stop. Roosevelt thinks about it briefly but declines. Churchill thinks about it a little longer, remembers the crater that was Westminster Abbey, and says f**k it. Stalin burns the memo while laughing hysterically. Allied bombers find and bomb the nuclear reactors. Germans try to use slave labor to repair them, but the unfortunate people are dropping like flies after 48 hours from radiation poisoning. Somebody comes up with the idea of building a reactor in a cave, but they have barely started when they are overrun. And come May 1945, Hitler is still heckling the last surviving Junkers engineers to please add two more engines, fifteen auto-cannons, and perhaps a beer fridge for the pilots.
No, they couldn’t build those tanks. If anyone had thought clearly about the problems, they wouldn’t have even gotten so far as a prototype. The big tanks were useless because they were too heavy and couldn’t cross most bridges. The ground pressure was quite high as well.
The idea that the tanks would be useful in any military way was magical thinking on their part, and yet they made the attempt anyway.
I haven’t provided any reference because I have no idea what you are looking for. The vast majority of the work, including the key experiments that needed explanation, was done in Berlin by Otto Hahn. The explanation was made in Sweden, and the result distributed quickly. But the meat of the work–the hard chemistry that led to the unexplained result–was done by Hahn. Hahn had a huge lead over the Americans at this time with regards to the chemistry.
Why was Lise in Sweden? Because she had only very recently left Germany due to persecution. She had actually stayed long beyond what was reasonable due to her love of the work, but was eventually forced out. The Nazis could have forced her to stay using any number of unpleasant means.
Stay focused here. We aren’t talking about Pearl Harbor here. We’re talking about New York and other Eastern cities. Radar was extremely new at the time.
Answer this, because I don’t actually know: did New York have active radar at any time in 1941?
Well, in fact the answer doesn’t matter. Pearl Harbor demonstrated that radar made no difference, because it was so early in development that the strategy on how to interpret and deal with the signals was not developed yet. The attack on Pearl Harbor was seen on radar and ignored.
If we did actually live in an alternate universe where the Pearl Harbor attack was deflected, and I suggested that in some other timeline the radar operator might have mistook the signal for something else and ignored it, you would be telling me that the US would never display such rank incompetence and that it would be magic to suggest otherwise.
What I’m hearing if the Nazi’s had discovered fission in 1935 and Plutonium in 1936 and had just *happened *to go straight for plutonium devices only, we might be saluting the Fuhrer’s grandson right now.
What AdamF is missing in his analysis is you don’t use a limited number of nukes on troops unless they are very concentrated. You use it strategically.
Were Moscow and London smoking radioactive craters, there wouldn’t be any Stalin or Churchill, as both would be dead. Even if they weren’t dead, enough of their staff and lower ranking officials would be dead. There wouldn’t be tens of thousands of Russian troops attacking as they wouldn’t be supplied, there wouldn’t be any tanks for them to drive, and nobody would have a plan how to use them. There wouldn’t be much happening with the British, either. The Normandy invasion would have failed immediately - remember how the Allies were forced to assault a narrow section of beach? Producing a couple plutonium bombs a month, the Axis would have nuked both the support fleet (a couple devices for that) and the beachline (after their initial bunkers fell)
They could also have nuked Mulberry Harbor, Eisenhower’s planning tent, vehicle depots, the list goes on.
I just want to reiterate that there’s nothing in the fictional account that actually posits Nazi Germany being able to produce 70+ bombs a year in the early 1940s. The date of their first detonation and their production capacities are not known.
Correct. We’re starting with the stuff we know about from the story.
“The Nazis won by 1952”.
“They nuked Washington”
“A bunch of American supported the Nazis”
We’re then trying to figure out the smallest set of changes to history that would let the Nazis win. Some posters here think the deck was so stacked against Nazis that no set of changes could have resulted in victory : you would have had to give the Nazis things that are physically impossible.
See, a valid change to history is something that could have really happened. “A scientist in Berlin got his grant money a little sooner and found fission faster”. “Enough of the nuclear scientists at the time became convinced that Plutonium was the only practical way to obtain enough fissionables. With nukes on hand, the aircraft designers had their budgets doubled as it was realized that the V1/V2 program would not be an accurate way to deliver a limited number of expensive nukes long distance. So all the workers who would have gone to make V1 and V2 rockets worked on bombers…”
An invalid change is "Hitler had a dream, and in that dream, he saw the exact blueprints for a modern hydrogen bomb. Or, “Nazi scientists invent a death ray, a device that works by carving egyptian hieroglyphs into a cavity magnetron tube.”
The invalid changes are impossible because the physics of this universe do not allow them, so far as we know now.
what if fission was discovered a few years early
-what if the Germans were able to duplicate or far supersede the Amercan efforts (that produced 2 bombs within 4 years or so)
-no Allies succeed in copying those efforts or slowing German efforts
-Germans also develop a delivery system that gives America reason to believe they are easily atom bombed
-America’s nazi sympathizing faction gains a lot of power.
Is that about the list so far?
People always get this weird idea that since Nazi Germany had some cool weapons like jets and missiles they had some amazing scientists which in truth while they were good, the allies could have easily matched. For example British jet design was proceeding quickly with American jets not far behind. We didnt do rockets because we didnt need them but we easily could have.
There could simply be no American effort. You can posit a situation where Hitler buys into the concept very early on while on the other hand Roosevelt thinks it’s bullshit or too costly and too unlikely to suceed to start the Manhattan project.
Intelligence isn’t very good, and the first hint the USA has that a nuclear bomb is a viable concept is when a German one detonates.
Germany developing an A-bomb might be far fetched but the USA not developing it, on the other hand, would have been very possible. In fact, it’s rather surprising that they did, given the cost and the lack of certainty wrt feasability.
And that’s only the beginning of the difficulties. Adam’s post doesn’t discuss any of the myriads of technical difficulties encountered in the endeavor. For example, the plutonium bomb required an incredible complex implosion design which relied on very specialized shape charges. If the explosion wasn’t perfect the bomb would fizzle instead of becoming critical.
This type of device was possible only because of the body of knowledge obtained from shape charge research for other explosives developed during the war. Any prewar weapon development would have had to conduct this research from scratch.
The wiki article on the Manhattan Project is a good place to start looking at the complexities of the project.
The British started as soon as the Germans could have, in early 1940, they not only shared all their research, but many of their scientists went and worked in the States. The Manhattan Project really had based on 5.5 years of development. The idea that the Germans could have done it in a couple, during the war, is simply laughable.
I’m going to call this at least a couple of L2 and an L3.
Germany didn’t have the “huge resources” to throw at the project. Full stop. The US/Britain/Canada effort were able to make the speed they did because of the massive parallel projects they undertook and it took 5.5 years. For a project this complex, short of divine intervention, it takes all that much more manpower, money and other resources to speed up the process.
Among other problems that the US had was the critical lack of copper which was being used for war purposes. From the wiki cite.
Germany faced an ever more critical shortage of copper; in 1940 the various military organizations were fighting over how much copper they were allotted for weapon manufacturing. Metal and manpower shortages were reasons for the delays in building the German navy.
Britain was well aware of German efforts to make the bomb, and was successfully obtained information by its spies during the war. It would not have required an actual nuclear bombing for them to locate the facilities.
This of course is another case of L2 and L3. Germany and Britain were close to war all during 1938 and '39, so picking up a cyclotron from the UK is problematic, to say the least. Unlimited funding. Yep.
The little “developed a process to turn in into very pure uranium metal” was the major headache of the Manhattan Project, and 90% of the funds were used in building construction and the separation process.
Yeah, in fact this is the ONLY scenario which gives Germany a fair shot, and it’s not that hard to imagine.
Suppose that southern Democrats don’t accept Wallace as VP, and form a rump party behind Garner, thus breaking up the Solid South and denying Roosevelt the election. Sure, Wilkie was an internationalist, but maybe he would have killed off the Tennessee Valley Authority and the infrastructure needed to bring all that electricity to Oak Ridge wouldn’t exist.
Suppose that Einstein’s second thoughts about building the bomb had manifested in 1940, and he refuses to sign Szilard’s letter to Roosevelt. Without Einstein’s support, FDR doesn’t take the warning seriously.
Suppose that Japan hadn’t attacked Pearl Harbor, Hitler doesn’t declare war on the U.S. and the Manhattan Project, while it continues, doesn’t get as much funding.
Those are at least plausible alt-history scenarios. Germany doesn’t invent the bomb in 1941, but they might have beaten the Allies to having one at all.
I was of the understanding that Einstein’s second thoughts came because he realized the Germans were not able to build a bomb. So the idea that it would come earlier is counter to the hypothetical. Allied intelligence would have had to be even less effective than they were in noticing a much higher than what occurred German interest in uranium.