# Could Giuliani put NY in play in '08? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 7, 2007, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210 "2007-02-07T15:11:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2007, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/61 "2007-02-08T20:19:31Z")
[QUOTE=spoke-] I expect Huckabee to emerge as the dark horse. He will play well among the Republican base. It would not surprise me at all for him to win the nomination. In fact, I would be _more_ surprised if Giuliani hangs in there and wins it. It’s interesting that Giuliani polls so poorly among New York voters against possible Democratic candidates. Thanks for calling our attention to those polls. [/QUOTE] Let’s remember that these Polls are very early. We should see Rudy’s numbers on the national scale. It might be interesting. Huckabee has a long road to get enough name recognition to knock off both Rudy and McCain. **Here is a good resource for related polls** : [WH2008: General](http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm) The numbers are all head to head which is the most realistic and it shows varying results with Rudy doing a little better than McCain and it looks like Romney doing terrible. Please note this page shows dozens of polls and polls for different weeks. Here is the [Republican Primary Polls](http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08rep.htm). In most of these Rudy has a slight edge over McCain. \*\*Remember Polls in January and February of 2007 mean little for 2008. \*\* Jim ---
**Author:** ![GLWasteful](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/f05b48/32.png) [@GLWasteful](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GLWasteful)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2007, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/62 "2007-02-08T22:21:03Z")
[QUOTE=spoke-] I expect Huckabee to emerge as the dark horse. He will play well among the Republican base. [/quote] Good point, and one that I hadn’t considered. He’s southern, a governor, and a damned good public speaker. I daresay he’s articulate. Not sure that I think he might win the nomination, but with the field that exists, precious little would surprise me these days. [QUOTE=John Mace] The problem many of you has is this absurd charicature of the “religious right” as some monolithic block of voters chasing down candidates with their bibles. [/quote] Just like **RTFirefly** , I grew up around people like the religious right. I know full well that they’re just like everyone else. All over the damned board. But they’ve been told that they should expect a candidate who is one of them. Despite what you claim about Bush _fils_, I think that he’s pretty much exactly what the RR is after. Life of debauchery, followed by a come to Jesus moment. Shit, I could give you a ist of names that would choke a pony of people with precisely that same life story. Granted, they weren’t born to scions in Connecticut, but they look at him in a decidedly macro fashion, and he’s a damned clone of one of them. Well, if they didn’t believe that cloning is a bad and evil thing, that is. But to hell with him, there’s a whole new batch to bash and dissect. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2007, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/63 "2007-02-08T23:59:45Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] The one guy who could _really_ take advantage of the GOP field’s weakness is Jeb Bush, if he chose to run. If no frontrunner materializes in the meantime, he could hold off until early fall, …He sounds pretty firm about not running. [/quote] As he told a Spanish reporter upon leaving office, “_No tengo futuro_”. He knows. Good luck in the lobbying biz, Jebby. > [@](#): > > A draft-Jeb movement in the GOP this spring and summer wouldn’t surprise me at all, but it sounds like he’s even less eager to be drafted than Gore is. Bah. There hasn’t been a draft since long before the primary system took hold, and under both party’s current rules it’s virtually impossible for the primaries NOT to produce a nominee. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2007, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/64 "2007-02-09T01:16:00Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Bah. There hasn’t been a draft since long before the primary system took hold, and under both party’s current rules it’s virtually impossible for the primaries NOT to produce a nominee. [/QUOTE] That’s why ‘draft Smith’ movements now take place well before the primaries, with the objective of convincing Smith to run. That’s why a ‘draft Jeb’ movement, should it occur, would take place _this_ spring and summer, not _next_ year. Actually, there **has** been one significant draft since the primary system took hold. That would be in 1980, when Dems unhappy with Carter persuaded Ted Kennedy to run against him. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Joe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@Evil\_Joe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Joe)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2007, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/65 "2007-02-09T05:42:04Z")
I think Republicans can forgive his liberal leanings on quite a few issues. But the anti-gun issue is a deal breaker for many republicans, especially in the mid west. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2007, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/66 "2007-02-09T17:01:15Z")
I found [this](http://www.rightwingnews.com/archives/week_2007_01_21.PHP#007239) interesting poll today, given to over 230 “Right-of-Center bloggers.” > [@](#): > > Most Desired Nominee For 2008 > > … > 4) Duncan Hunter (35.5) > 3) Mitt Romney (43) > 2) Rudy Giuliani (45) > > 1. Newt Gingrich (52) > [@](#): > > Least Desired Nominee For 2008 > > … > 4) Tom Tancredo (30) > 3) George Pataki (49) > 2) John McCain (60.5) > > 1. Chuck Hagel (64) So, the bloggers picked Gingrich as their dream candidate and Hagel is their… undream. These results surprise me. A lot. Edited to add: I couldn’t even remember who Duncan Hunter was! ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2007, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/67 "2007-02-09T18:19:45Z")
[QUOTE=jsgoddess] I found [this](http://www.rightwingnews.com/archives/week_2007_01_21.PHP#007239) interesting poll today, given to over 230 “Right-of-Center bloggers.” So, the bloggers picked Gingrich as their dream candidate and Hagel is their… undream. These results surprise me. A lot. [/QUOTE] I wouldn’t put much stock in this. We have no idea who these bloggers are or what their particular agendas are. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they represented, as a group, a rather fringe ideology as is often the case with political bloggers. As for Gingrich, he should be a conservative’s dream candidate, especially if you’re one of the more educated conservatives. And, if you’re willing to forgive his political scandals, which many mainstream voters don’t know enough about other than to have those scandals turn them off to the idea of him as a candidate. And… if you’re thinking completely ideally, not with the sense of “can this guy acutally win in the general”. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2007, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/68 "2007-02-09T18:26:01Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] As for Gingrich, he should be a conservative’s dream candidate, especially if you’re one of the more educated conservatives. And, if you’re willing to forgive his political scandals, which many mainstream voters don’t know enough about other than to have those scandals turn them off to the idea of him as a candidate. And… if you’re thinking completely ideally, not with the sense of “can this guy acutally win in the general”. [/QUOTE] According to Newt, he’s not going to decide until October. [http://www.newt.org/backpage.asp?art=4073](http://www.newt.org/backpage.asp?art=4073) ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2007, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/69 "2007-02-09T18:28:45Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] And… if you’re thinking completely ideally, not with the sense of “can this guy acutally win in the general”. [/QUOTE] That’s what makes Giuliani scoring high so surprising to me. Look at McCain down there, then Giuliani up there. The identities of the bloggers are listed at the link I gave. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2007, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/70 "2007-02-09T18:33:56Z")
[QUOTE=jsgoddess] That’s what makes Giuliani scoring high so surprising to me. Look at McCain down there, then Giuliani up there. The identities of the bloggers are listed at the link I gave. [/QUOTE] But the identities don’t tell us what their agendas are, as I doubt you’ve spent the time looking them all up individually and developing a political profile of them. It’s an unscientific survey, not unlike any internet survey. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2007, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/71 "2007-02-09T23:10:44Z")
[QUOTE=Captain Amazing] According to Newt, he’s not going to decide until October. [/QUOTE] Which will be way too late, and he must know it, therefore he’s more likely just to be trying to get his name back in the news. Does he have a book coming out in October, perhaps? **RTF** , I was actually think of \*convention \* drafts of noncampaigning prospects, not uncommon back in the days when those were more than just pep rallies. AFAIK the last time it actually happened was 1940 with Willkie. What you describe is grassroots support the candidate found compelling, and then began to campaign _in the primaries._ ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2007, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/72 "2007-02-09T23:39:11Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Which will be way too late, and he must know it, therefore he’s more likely just to be trying to get his name back in the news. Does he have a book coming out in October, perhaps? [/QUOTE] Not neccesarily. The New Hampshire primary isn’t until the end of January, so that would give him 4 months to set up campaign organization and fundraising, and since Gingrich is already pretty well known, that will be easier for him. So, assuming none of the Republican candidates set the party on fire and that there’s a groundswell of “Draft Newt”, it’s difficult but possible. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2007, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/73 "2007-02-09T23:40:33Z")
A groundswell of “Draft Newt”, you say? I’m almost tempted to offer a bet on that one. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2007, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/74 "2007-02-09T23:52:57Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] **RTF** , I was actually think of \*convention \* drafts of noncampaigning prospects, not uncommon back in the days when those were more than just pep rallies. AFAIK the last time it actually happened was 1940 with Willkie. What you describe is grassroots support the candidate found compelling, and then began to campaign _in the primaries._ [/QUOTE] The reason that Wilkie was able to get the 1940 nomination, and the reason that the conventions then weren’t just pep rallies, was because then, most states didn’t have binding primaries. In most cases, the state parties just appointed the delegates, so very few delegates were committed at the beginning, so a dark horse candidate could emerge. A big reason that changed was because of the '68 Democratic convention, and the turmoil behind that. Humphrey managed to get the nomination without entering any primaries. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2007, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/75 "2007-02-10T00:20:59Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] **RTF** , I was actually think of \*convention \* drafts of noncampaigning prospects, not uncommon back in the days when those were more than just pep rallies. AFAIK the last time it actually happened was 1940 with Willkie. What you describe is grassroots support the candidate found compelling, and then began to campaign _in the primaries._ [/QUOTE] Nothing wrong with that, but I thought you were responding to where I was talking about drafts. And since I was talking in terms of spring and summer of _this_ year…well, you get the idea. You’re right about convention drafts, of course. Although the Scranton draft in 1964, while unsuccessful in terms of wresting the nomination from Goldwater, got enough delegates to make it at least mildly interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2007, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/76 "2007-02-10T03:47:26Z")
[QUOTE=What Exit?] Cite please. I had not heard this. I find it a little hard to credit. [/QUOTE] I think we can put that to rest: [Giuliani has said he would appoint justices like Roberts, Scalia and Alito, and he also “hates” abortion.](http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/10/us/politics/10rudy.html?hp&ex=1171083600&en=13e0da6216580a17&ei=5094&partner=homepage) > [@](#): > > “On the federal judiciary I would want judges who are strict constructionists because I am,” he said last week in South Carolina. "I have a very, very strong view that for this country to work, for our freedoms to be protected, judges have to interpret, not invent the Constitution. > > “Otherwise you end up, when judges invent the Constitution, with your liberties being hurt. Because legislatures get to make those decisions and the Legislature in South Carolina might make that decision one way and the Legislature in California a different one.” ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2007, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/77 "2007-02-10T03:58:19Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] I think we can put that to rest: [Giuliani has said he would appoint justices like Roberts, Scalia and Alito, and he also “hates” abortion.](http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/10/us/politics/10rudy.html?hp&ex=1171083600&en=13e0da6216580a17&ei=5094&partner=homepage) [/QUOTE] Thank you for the link. Disturbing article but also contradictory. > [@](#): > > “I hate it,” he said of abortion in a recent interview with Sean Hannity of Fox News. “I think abortion is something that, as a personal matter, I would advise somebody against. However, I believe in a woman’s right to choose. I think you have to ultimately not put a woman in jail for that.” This is a paragraph that could come from my mouth. Well except the last sentence. I would never consider putting the woman or her doctor in jail or even fining them. I would just normally advise alternatives if I was asked. That last sentence is a bit scary to me. I would have liked a follow-up question on it. This is going to be an interesting election cycle. Much more so than the depressing one we had in 2004. I got to choose between Tweedle-Dumb and Tweedle-Dumber. I like Clinton & Obama better than Kerry or Edwards. I still like Rudy and McCain much better than Bush or Dole. I am sure both parties will find bigger rejects to run against each other somehow. Jim ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2007, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/78 "2007-02-10T04:26:15Z")
[QUOTE=What Exit?] Thank you for the link. Disturbing article but also contradictory. [/QUOTE] No problem. I knew I read something about the strict constructionism somewhere, but couldn’t find it for the life of me- so I’m glad that article showed up. Sounds like Rudy has gone back and forth on abortion a couple of times. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2007, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/79 "2007-02-10T04:30:29Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] No problem. I knew I read something about the strict constructionism somewhere, but couldn’t find it for the life of me- so I’m glad that article showed up. Sounds like Rudy has gone back and forth on abortion a couple of times. [/QUOTE] So, is this enough to get him out of that deadly “pro-choice” territory he was in with the RR? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2007, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210/80 "2007-02-10T04:33:26Z")
[QUOTE=jsgoddess] So, is this enough to get him out of that deadly “pro-choice” territory he was in with the RR? [/QUOTE] If they believe he’s sincere about it. I don’t know why they would believe that, but maybe they will. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-giuliani-put-ny-in-play-in-08/391210.md?page=5)