# Could Hurricane Sandy actually sway the election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 25, 2012, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867 "2012-10-25T20:57:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/121 "2012-10-30T19:26:29Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > [This photo](https://twitter.com/jonkarl/status/263303957823246336) shows you everything you need to know about Romney’s Totally Not a Campaign Rally “Storm Relief” Event. And all they’re doing is collecting canned goods. The Red Cross has made it very clear they don’t **need** canned goods for hurricane relief. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/122 "2012-10-30T19:28:34Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > It’ll be a long time before the damage calculations are in for Sandy. Anyway, I said the Storm of the Century, not the Aftermath of the Century. The storm surge was three and a half feet higher than ever recorded in New York, and the barometric pressure was 15 or 20 millibars lower than the previous record. For this kind of a storm in this part of the country, Sandy is the worst and will be the one that all future storms will be measured against. Ha! Not even a Category 2 'cane! Wimps! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Nars\_Glinley](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nars_glinley/32/8177_2.png) [@Nars\_Glinley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nars_Glinley)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/123 "2012-10-30T19:29:22Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Another possible impact: If bad weather decreases Election Day turnout, it’ll increase the relative importance of the early voting, which has been significantly favoring Obama. Not according to Gallup. > [@](#): > > Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead > > Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate. > > Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney’s 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup’s Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6. From [here.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx) ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/124 "2012-10-30T19:29:28Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > And all they’re doing is collecting canned goods. The Red Cross has made it very clear they don’t **need** canned goods for hurricane relief. This is NY and NJ. Clearly what they need is pizza slices! ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/125 "2012-10-30T19:30:24Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > Whaddya know, he’s gone silent on the issue and is ignoring questions: > > [Mitt Romney refuses to answer whether he'd eliminate FEMA](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/30/1152601/-Mitt-Romney-refuses-to-answer-whether-he-d-eliminate-FEMA?detail=hide) > > Color me unsurprised. Well, all we have to go on then is his previous comments during the nomination debates; the responsibilities of FEMA should be devolved to the individual states, or even better to private business who can then make a profit from natural disasters. I guess in a hypothetical Romney-future, the name of the country will change to: “The Collection of Individual Independent States in North America” ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/126 "2012-10-30T19:31:26Z")
After basically telling Romney to fuck off this morning, Christie [has invited Obama down to NJ to survey the damage with him](https://www.facebook.com/HuffPostPolitics/posts/10151138867032911). He knows which way the winds blowin’. Of course, Obama IS the president and should be expected to visit the area. But it’s a fun contrast against Romney’s attempt to swoop in for a political photo-op. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/127 "2012-10-30T19:32:35Z")
> [@Nars\_Glinley](#): > > Not according to Gallup. > > From [here.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx) Who cares how many votes Romney can rack up nationally. What matters are the swing states and all info I’ve seen on their early voting shows Obama with enormous leads. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/128 "2012-10-30T19:34:17Z")
> [@Nars\_Glinley](#): > > Not according to Gallup. > > From [here.](http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx) How can Gallup have numbers that are so far off from other pollsters on early voting? Here’s from PPP: > **[Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Big early voting lead for Obama, but...](https://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/30/1152332/-Daily-Kos-SEIU-State-of-the-Nation-poll-Big-early-voting-lead-for-Obama-but-tied-nbsp-overall?detail=hide)** > > (Bumped - Barbara Morrill) > > > > Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 10/25-28. Likely voters. MoE ±2.7% ( > [@](#): > > Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 10/25-28. Likely voters. MoE ±2.7% (10/18-21 results) > > The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for? > Obama 49 (48) > Romney 49 (48) > > Even looking at the day to days, the race is stable. It’s essentially tied in the swing states—50-49 Romney, Obama wins Blue states 55-42, while Romney wins Red states 57-40. Romney’s bigger margin could theoretically lead him to win the popular vote while losing the electoral college vote. I wouldn’t count on that to happen, however. > Of those who watched the last presidential debate, Obama won 49-39 (44-36 among independents), which gives Team Blue an objective 3-1 in the debates. Too bad the first one was so outsized in influence. > > Of particular importance given the difficulty in getting base Democrats to the polls, Obama is winning 59-41 among those who have already voted (14 percent of sample), 54-42 among those who plan to vote early (18%), and 53-44 among those who plan to vote absentee (7%). Romney is winning those who expect to vote on Election Day 53-44 (62%). > > It’s almost as if there are two elections—the one before Election Day, and the one during. Obama is up 59-41 among those who have already voted, 54-42 among those who still intend to vote early, and 53-44 among those planning to vote absentee. How is Gallup saying essentially the opposite of this? What are they smoking? Are they polling only Republicans right now or something? ---
**Author:** ![Nars\_Glinley](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nars_glinley/32/8177_2.png) [@Nars\_Glinley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nars_Glinley)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/129 "2012-10-30T19:55:29Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > How is Gallup saying essentially the opposite of this? What are they smoking? Are they polling only Republicans right now or something? In a Gallup vs Daily Kos showdown, I wouldn’t necessarily assume that Gallup is the one smoking something. ---
**Author:** ![Nars\_Glinley](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nars_glinley/32/8177_2.png) [@Nars\_Glinley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nars_Glinley)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/130 "2012-10-30T20:02:24Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > Who cares how many votes Romney can rack up nationally. What matters are the swing states and all info I’ve seen on their early voting shows Obama with enormous leads. I’m not sure which swing states you’re talking about that have been affected by Sandy. Virginia? New Hampshire? At any rate, shouldn’t Sandy have a bad overall net effect for President Obama if the early voting will slow down due to the inability (and lack of desire I would think) to get to the polls? ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/131 "2012-10-30T20:16:09Z")
> [@Nars\_Glinley](#): > > I’m not sure which swing states you’re talking about that have been affected by Sandy. Virginia? New Hampshire? > > At any rate, shouldn’t Sandy have a bad overall net effect for President Obama if the early voting will slow down due to the inability (and lack of desire I would think) to get to the polls? I see nothing about swing states in your Gallup post. Those were national numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/132 "2012-10-30T20:23:43Z")
[Romney set to return to Virginia Thursday](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/30/romney-set-to-return-to-virginia-thursday/?hpt=po_c2) Mitt Romney knows the calendar. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/133 "2012-10-30T21:35:35Z")
> [@Nars\_Glinley](#): > > In a Gallup vs Daily Kos showdown, I wouldn’t necessarily assume that Gallup is the one smoking something. Its not Dailykos, its PPP > **[Public Policy Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Policy_Polling)** > > Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American polling firm affiliated with the Democratic Party. Founded in 2001 by businessman Dean Debnam, the firm is based in Raleigh, North Carolina. Debnam died in 2024. Tom Jensen serves as the firm's director. > In addition to political issues, PPP has conducted polling on comical topics. These include surveys of whether Republican voters believe Barack Obama would be eligible to enter heaven in the event of the Rapture, whether hipsters should be subjected to ... But feel free to dismiss any polling that happens to be reported on by a source you don’t like if you wish. PPP has very good accuracy cred though, so you may want to rethink your reaction. Or not. Your call. ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/134 "2012-10-30T21:36:37Z")
Also, Gallup is the polling house most out of line with the rest of the polling universe right now, so are you really banking on that one being the accurate one and the rest all wrong? ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/135 "2012-10-30T22:17:59Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Or Florida, for that matter, which is eastern but unaffected by the storm, and which if he can flip back into his column effectively wins the election. > [@Bob Ducca](#): > > Could Obama’s hands-on response, coupled with the praise from people on the right (Christie) help push him over the top in Florida and North Carolina (two states that deal with hurricanes on the reg)? I think so, especially when coupled with Romney’s “Eff FEMA” stance. Obama’s ‘November’ strategy should now be (1) East Coast, (2) West Coast, and (3) Gulf Coast. Brilliant! Brilliant! ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/136 "2012-10-30T22:27:03Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > I don’t think I’ve ever lived in an area where the polling location wasn’t within walking distance, whether than was a big city or a suburb. Granted, “walking distance” for me is longer than for some other folks, but in something so densely populated as New York City I’d imagine many folks travel a longer distance vertically to get out of their high rise apartment than horizontally along the sidewalk to reach their polling place. Heh. Live in a rural area for a while. My town is 1.75 square miles smaller than Boston and there’s **one** polling place in the entire town. I like walking, but an 11 mile walk to vote would be a bit much. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/137 "2012-10-30T22:46:58Z")
> [@Kozmik](#): > > Obama’s ‘November’ strategy should now be (1) East Coast, (2) West Coast, and (3) Gulf Coast. Brilliant! Brilliant! I think his strategy should be OH/WI +1. That is, nail down OH and WI, which he leads in, and 1 more state between IA, NV, CO, VA, and FL. I think he’s farthest ahead in NV, but he’s likely to get a few more too. ---
**Author:** ![Enkel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/df705f/32.png) [@Enkel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enkel)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/138 "2012-10-30T23:01:54Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > Heh. Live in a rural area for a while. My town is 1.75 square miles smaller than Boston and there’s **one** polling place in the entire town. I like walking, but an 11 mile walk to vote would be a bit much. Do people in your area rely on mass transit? The original statement was that with subways down, people could not get to the polling places. At most, in a small town you have people who rely on transportation for the handicapped (in our area, those are vans that wouldn’t be affected by the hurricane). Most other residents own cars or can get to polling places without the use of mass transit systems. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/139 "2012-10-30T23:02:05Z")
> [@MsWhatsit](#): > > (This is one of the many reasons we need to go back to paper balloting in all states.) At least two weeks of early voting in all states would be a more effective solution (distribution of bulk papers can be just as problematic as restoring electricity). ---
**Author:** ![Enkel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/df705f/32.png) [@Enkel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enkel)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2012, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867/140 "2012-10-30T23:05:37Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I think his strategy should be OH/WI +1. That is, nail down OH and WI, which he leads in, and 1 more state between IA, NV, CO, VA, and FL. I think he’s farthest ahead in NV, but he’s likely to get a few more too. I’ve noticed a lot of articles about how Romney said that FEMA was immoral (his word) and I think (hope?) that FL residents will really think about that fact in the next couple days. If Brownie’s comments gain traction in the news, that will further tie Romney to the Bush Katrina response. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-sway-the-election/638867.md?page=8)