# Could Israel Destroy Iranaina Uranium Enrichment? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 25, 2015, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180 "2015-07-25T20:25:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2015, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/21 "2015-07-27T19:45:01Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > I wonder if a young woman gave an Iranian engineer some pictures of herself on a flash drive, and he looked at them at work. It’s been a while since I read about Stuxnet, but IIRC, the enrichment equipment was supposed to have been on an airgapped network. So the speculation has been that the malware was delivered by USB stick or some other kind of removable media, possibly with the assistance\* of an insider. But I haven’t kept up with the story for a while, so I’m not sure if that’s still the prevailing theory. \*meaning that someone could have been tricked as you suggest; coerced (“so, Engineer So-and-so, we have learned that you’re having an affair. Just do this one thing for us…”); or perhaps a willing mole. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2015, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/22 "2015-07-27T19:59:05Z")
One of the users at my place of employment carries a zip lock bag of a dozen flash drives with her so that she may more easily spread viruses like Johnny Appleseed. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2015, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/23 "2015-07-27T20:04:34Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > What makes you two so certain of these things? The USA has built, tested, and upgraded bombs specifically designed to penetrate and destroy the deepest of Iran’s underground nuclear facilities (Fordow). > > Israel may not have the capability, but I believe we do. > > And Israel may have the capability. They purchased a number of GBU-28s and have F-15Es capable of delivering them. Who knows if repeated strikes by GBU-28s would be enough to destroy Fordow? > > I know that we used multiple strikes to destroy hardened aircraft shelters. > > And Israel could do other inventive things to destroy Fordow. They’re in the process of purchasing some V-22 Ospreys from us. I could imagine them flying a team of commandos to Fordow, landing them, having them penetrate the facility on foot and plant explosives inside to bring the whole thing down. > > Also, Isreal demonstrated some capability for defeating hostile air defenses when it bombed Syria’s nuclear reactor. I’m not sure how well those would stack up against Russia’s S-300 system, but I wouldn’t count the Israelis out. > > Lastly, Israel will be buying their own F-35s soon(ish), which should help significantly if it decides to go after Iran’s nuclear program. > **[Read "Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons" at NAP.edu](https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/11282/chapter/1#R1)** > > Read chapter Front Matter: Underground facilities are used extensively by many nations to conceal and protect strategic military functions and weapons' st... The basic gist is that conventional weapons are only good against very shallow targets and nuclear weapons have a limit as well. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2015, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/24 "2015-07-27T21:42:36Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > I think that Bosda (he can contradict me if I am wrong) is saying that an Isreali attack (especially nuclear) on Iranian facilities could very possibly imperil the Jewish state more than a Nuclear Iran. > > Because, as he points out, the “Arab Street” has 40+ years of negative propaganda regarding Israel, because it helped keep the politicians in power (see the American South during Jim Crow for similar tactics). But it has been a ‘controlled’ indignation…but what controls will the leaders be able to maintain if an fellow Muslim country (even one that is distrusted and disliked by many Arab leaders) is nuked? > > Right now, Israel has peace with Jordan and Egypt which seems to be holding (even during the time of the Muslim brotherhood), Syria is a charnel-house and Lebanon is barely hanging on. In terms of threats to the Nation-State, Israel is as secure as she has ever been. > > (And no, I am not discounting Hezbollah or Hamas; but they have the ability to be a nusiance, not a threat to the nation-state of being. IMHO) > > A nuclear attack? Or even a bombing attack? That would make any peace treaty with Isreal by any Muslim state impractical, if not wriitten off, simply because the people that the leaders have indoctrinated with propaganda for decades would not allow it. Even more secular Muslim countries like Turkey would find themselves in an untenable position (and the Turks are the only Isalmic nation in the immediate vicinity that could pose a viable risk to the existence of the Nation of Israel). > > So besides it being probably non-feasible to launch a conventional attack (the logistics are daunting), a nuclear pre-emtive strike (no matter how successful) may well put Israel in a worst position than a potentially/someday nuclear armed-Iran > > I think that was what he was saying. It certainly is how I intepreted it. If I am wrong so be it. > > IMHO as always. YMMV. I am saying that Israel is too small to absorb a “hit” from a nuke, and then bounce back as a nation. If the US was hit with a nuke, terrible, terrible loss of life, and property, would result. **But there would be a functional America the next day.** Not so, Israel. They got to block the nuke _every time_, or die as a nation with the first successful strike. I’ve been reading [1948](http://www.amazon.com/1948-History-First-Arab-Israeli-War/dp/0300151128/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1438033221&sr=1-2&keywords=1948), and the sheer irrationality of the initial invasion of Israel sticks with me. To survive, Israel must take different views on defense. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2015, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/25 "2015-07-27T23:40:43Z")
> [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](#): > > They got to block the nuke _every time_, or die as a nation with the first successful strike. I have often wondered if there is an American satellite to help with that. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/26 "2015-07-28T00:01:41Z")
There are no anti-missile satellites. The U.S. doesn’t have them, and neither does anyone else. The technology does not exist at this time. I actually do think Israel has enough redundancy to take one major hit. If Tel Aviv goes, there’s enough structure left in Jerusalem to maintain the country as a working nation. If Jerusalem gets hit, Tel Aviv can carry the ball. Two major hits… I dunno. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/27 "2015-07-28T00:03:22Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > One of the users at my place of employment carries a zip lock bag of a dozen flash drives with her so that she may more easily spread viruses like Johnny Appleseed. Digital Typhoid Mary, eh ? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/28 "2015-07-28T01:45:33Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > There are no anti-missile satellites. I was thinking of satellites seeing a launch, and notifying Israel to launch anti missiles. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/29 "2015-07-28T02:36:42Z")
Oh… Beg your pardon… I don’t know if that could be made to work fast enough, though. You’d have to computerize the whole arrangement, without any human intervention in the process. Also, counter-missiles aren’t that good yet. Iron Dome and others are nice, and the Patriot system had its day in the sun, but even against cheap-ass SCUDs, a good many will get through. (Of course, accidentally launching a bunch of counter-missiles is certainly a lot less doomful than accidentally launching a major retaliatory counter-strike.) ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/30 "2015-07-28T03:45:54Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > I was thinking of satellites seeing a launch, and notifying Israel to launch anti missiles. I’d imagine that ground-based radar would be better at detecting missile launches than satellites. ---
**Author:** ![DerekMichaels00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f14d63/32.png) [@DerekMichaels00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DerekMichaels00)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/31 "2015-07-28T04:48:54Z")
to be frank, IDK why they haven’t. It would be one thing if Israel went alone, but if Israel and Saudi Arabia (obvious covertly) did it together, is the WH gonna stop it or ditch either? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/32 "2015-07-28T13:13:14Z")
> [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](#): > > I am saying that Israel is too small to absorb a “hit” from a nuke, and then bounce back as a nation. > If the US was hit with a nuke, terrible, terrible loss of life, and property, would result. > **But there would be a functional America the next day.** > > Not so, Israel. > > They got to block the nuke _every time_, or die as a nation with the first successful strike. > > I’ve been reading [1948](http://www.amazon.com/1948-History-First-Arab-Israeli-War/dp/0300151128/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1438033221&sr=1-2&keywords=1948), and the sheer irrationality of the initial invasion of Israel sticks with me. > > To survive, Israel must take different views on defense. Ah, I see, I did mis-intepret your original comments. My apologies, albeit i stand by my (not your) conclusions in my previous post. I have visited Israel, and while it is a small country, I think one nuke would not be the end of the nation-State; especially as W. Europe/USA would forget about any prior political issues and rush to its support, IMHO. Multiple hits…true. Again, the question is not if the Muslim world will get the bomb (Pakistan has had it for awhile), but is the policy of Israel trying to ‘take out’ potential bomb-making sites (or countries) more or less dangerous to the polity? It is a debate, for sure, and one that depends on so many variables that it is hard to preduict. ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/33 "2015-07-28T14:08:25Z")
> [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](#): > > And if Israel chooses to use its (very likely real) nuclear arsenal? > > Remember–the Middle Eastern States fear the “street”–angry popular uprisings. They have used the old “look at them nasty Jews–they offend our honor” ploy to distract King Mob for so long, they can’t back off from it. > > And Israel’s very survival rests on this. Israel’s survival does not depend on denying Iran nuclear weapons. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/34 "2015-07-28T17:07:32Z")
Since Isreal could turn Iran into a radioactive parking lot, of course they have the power to destory Iran’s nuclear program right along with everything else. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/35 "2015-07-28T18:09:42Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > Since Isreal could turn Iran into a radioactive parking lot, of course they have the power to destory Iran’s nuclear program right along with everything else. True. OP said: > [@](#): > > If Israel is prepared to use nukes, then yes-but that risks setting off a huge war-hard to see SA allowing this. I skimmed over that bit initially, but now I’m curious. OP, why do you think Saudi Arabia allowing or disallowing an Israeli nuclear strike is a consideration? I’m sure no one would “allow” it. Not Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, Russia, USA, the UN, etc, but none of that matters. I don’t think any of those groups have the capability to stop the IDF from doing it if they wanted. I also don’t know how many of them would risk a military retaliation against Israel, so I’m not sure it would “set off a huge war”. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/36 "2015-07-28T19:05:05Z")
Looking at the map, Israel has limited options to get an airstrike to Iran. It looks as if any other route than over SA would require permission my multiple other countries. Going through Jordan would also mean going through Syria or SA AND Iraq. Syria’s not going to grant anything. Going through Lebanon means going through the same countries, or flying more north and going through Turkey. Going down the Red Sea and around the Saudi peninsula probably requires both Egypt and SA to allow it, and I don’t know if the IAF have sufficient tanker assests to get a whole strike force all that extra distance. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/37 "2015-07-28T19:13:37Z")
Israel got to IRaq just fine and Iraq has no meaningful air defenses anymore. PLus they are kinda busy and the same military that won’t fight ISIS isn’t going to stand up to Israel. THe question isn’t whether they can get to Iran. It’s whether they can do it more than once. Destroying Iran’s capabilities requires a sustained campaign. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/38 "2015-07-28T20:45:45Z")
Iraq was one single strike. amd IIRC the IAF was near their range limit at the time. Of course, that was 30 years ago and I presume they have more capability now, but the Iranian bases will be hundreds of miles farther. Also, going through Iraq means passing though US controlled airspace as well. I don’t think the US would fire on them, but if they’re doing this while the treaty is still being debated, the IAF won’t get permission. It may also not be possible without US tanker support, which they also won’t get, at least for now. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/39 "2015-07-28T20:54:18Z")
Syria’s not a problem. The Israelis routinely overflew Syria and sometimes struck targets in Syria, and some of that was even before ISIS took over most of the country. Hell, the last time they stopped a country from acquiring nuclear weapons through air strikes was in Syria in 2007. Turkey is probably a no-go zone, and the political cost for crossing Iraq against US wishes is probably too high, even if we stood down militarily and let it happen. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2015, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180/40 "2015-07-28T21:07:43Z")
If Israel ever strikes Iran, it will be with through/over Saudi Arabia. Saudis will protest afterwards, of course, with a strongly written letter. I am sure the letter will be written in advance of the strike. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-israel-destroy-iranaina-uranium-enrichment/726180.md?page=3)