# Could many wealthy entrepreneurs repeat their success? How much luck is involved? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 26, 2013, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604 "2013-07-26T17:14:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2013, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/41 "2013-07-29T22:50:24Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > Her publishers, agents, and lawyers knew and agreed at her request to keep it secret. After it was accepted for publication under the name “Robert Galbraith.” Then Rowling came forward and surprised them with the happy news. ---
**Author:** ![NotDeadYet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/22d042/32.png) [@NotDeadYet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotDeadYet)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2013, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/42 "2013-07-30T03:30:46Z")
My younger son writes computer code. He just developed a plug-in that will make him a bunch of money. He has given away much of his work over the past couple years in order to get his name out there and get himself invited to speak at developer conferences. He has a number of other “products” in the pipeline. He started his own company so that he would have both control of his work and reap the rewards. His first career was in investment banking, but his passion is all things computer. I have no doubt he will be successful. I doubt he’ll sell his company, but who knows, if somebody throws enough money at him??? Would he be able to repeat his success? I think so because of his passion for the field and he has a wife who manages the money side of things. He failed in his attempt to develop apps and I think in his gut he wants to prove to himself he can be a success in that field. He’s an Apple hater who has recently invested in an iMac, an iPhone and an iPad, so I think he’s going to make another stab at apps. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2013, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/43 "2013-07-30T03:49:24Z")
> [@DMC](#): > > Branson himself agrees with me. Read it all [here](http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/2013/may/20/how-we-made-tubular-bells) or just the important part below if you wish. …thats just self-depreciating fluff. Its the sort of thing you expect the winning captain to say “All credit to the opposition/we were lucky to win/etc.” Would Branson still have succeeded in other ways if Tubular Bells was not successful? Your cite demonstrates he most likely would have been. He shows that he can pick talent and is wise enough not to get in the way. What exactly is it in the article that convinces you that without Tubular Bells Branson would not have made it? ---
**Author:** ![Ken001](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/43a26b/32.png) [@Ken001](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ken001)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2013, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/44 "2013-07-30T04:02:50Z")
I’ve only browsed the thread but it appears that the term “entrepreneur” is confused with the term “inventor”. An entrepreneur is a person who promotes a business idea/product. An inventor is the guy who spends hours or years in his garage/computer teasing out ideas. If he’s unworldly he will sell an idea to the entrepreneur. Bill Gates is an inventor who happened to understand how to develop a business, thus becoming an entrepreneur. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2013, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/45 "2013-07-30T04:08:09Z")
‘Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.’ – J. Paul Getty ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2013, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/46 "2013-07-30T05:03:37Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > …thats just self-depreciating fluff. Its the sort of thing you expect the winning captain to say “All credit to the opposition/we were lucky to win/etc.” Would Branson still have succeeded in other ways if Tubular Bells was not successful? Your cite demonstrates he most likely would have been. He shows that he can pick talent and is wise enough not to get in the way. What exactly is it in the article that convinces you that without Tubular Bells Branson would not have made it? I didn’t say he wouldn’t have been successful just that luck played a **huge** role in where he is today. I’m not getting the impression that people realize just how big of a record it was, especially so in the UK. As for Branson and his business acumen, I’d guess that he’d have become a millionaire without such luck, perhaps even a multi-millionaire. Nevertheless, he will repeatedly tell you how important record was to his career, in any forum, over and over again. This is a guy who was later sued by Oldfield and Oldfield even encoded “Fuck off RB” on one of his albums. [BBC Interview (audio)](http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01sdw2q/Front_Row_Richard_Branson_on_Tubular_Bells_Alison_Balsom_Cannes/) [On the importance of John Peel’s playing of the album in its entirety on Radio 1](http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/08/07/richard-branson-john-peel-mike-oldfield-tubular-bells_n_1751752.html) [More on Tubular Bells and how it came about](http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/Music/article/did-tubular-bells-make-richard-branson-rich/) So, you have a guy with a good instinct as well as business acumen, a willingness to take some risks, mix in several strokes of extraordinary luck (as well as smaller misfortunes), and you get a billionaire. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2013, 6:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/47 "2013-07-30T06:01:23Z")
Definitely luck plays a part. A lot of the people that manage to get rich quick, for instance, do so by investing in an industry or tech at the point where most people haven’t even heard of it, and reaping the rewards when it snowballs. Now obviously, you have to have a certain personality to succeed in being such a pioneer. To find out about the latest ideas and help make them workable. But, OTOH, most of these potential “next big things” flop; and no-one can predict with certainty which ones will succeed\*. Furthermore, it really helps if you have the right network of friends who can help you get started. - Not quite a new tech / idea, but still the example of _Angry Birds_ comes to mind, as the first big smartphone game. It’s a decent enough game, it’s free, and it has well-designed characters. But still, there were many games around at the time you could say the same things about. The time was right for _something_ to be big, but it could easily have been something else IMHO. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2013, 7:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/48 "2013-07-30T07:17:06Z")
> [@DMC](#): > > I didn’t say he wouldn’t have been successful just that luck played a **huge** role in where he is today. I’m not getting the impression that people realize just how big of a record it was, especially so in the UK. As for Branson and his business acumen, I’d guess that he’d have become a millionaire without such luck, perhaps even a multi-millionaire. Nevertheless, he will repeatedly tell you how important record was to his career, in any forum, over and over again. This is a guy who was later sued by Oldfield and Oldfield even encoded “Fuck off RB” on one of his albums. > > [BBC Interview (audio)](http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01sdw2q/Front_Row_Richard_Branson_on_Tubular_Bells_Alison_Balsom_Cannes/) > [On the importance of John Peel’s playing of the album in its entirety on Radio 1](http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/08/07/richard-branson-john-peel-mike-oldfield-tubular-bells_n_1751752.html) > [More on Tubular Bells and how it came about](http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/Music/article/did-tubular-bells-make-richard-branson-rich/) > > So, you have a guy with a good instinct as well as business acumen, a willingness to take some risks, mix in several strokes of extraordinary luck (as well as smaller misfortunes), and you get a billionaire. …again: not sure of your point. He attributes the album as being important to his career: but he doesn’t attribute his career to good luck. Luck is a factor: but good instincts, as well as business acumen, and a willingness to take some risks play a much bigger role than luck in his career wouldn’t you agree? While the articles attribute his decisions to “luck”: I would suggest that his success is more down to him having made a decision that others chose not to. That isn’t luck. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2013, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/49 "2013-07-30T07:44:53Z")
> [@IdahoMauleMan](#): > > And as Wynton Marsalis famously said to a young musician who asked him how to get a ‘break’ in the music industry, Marsalis replied “Break into a practice room.” Yep. You’ll never meet a talented musician who isn’t rich and famous. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2013, 8:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/50 "2013-07-30T08:59:02Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > …again: not sure of your point. He attributes the album as being important to his career: **but he doesn’t attribute his career to good luck.** Sure he does. How about an exact quote? (I’ll note that I’ve never said it was solely luck, just that he’s had huge amounts of it, without which he likely wouldn’t be where he is today.) [QUOTE=Richard Branson] You do need lucky breaks to be successful. I’ve had enormous amounts of luck. [/QUOTE] At this point, I’m going to let his own words make the case for me as they are pretty clear, whether you believe them or not. I’m not sure how you can parse “you do need lucky breaks to be successful” in any other way, but feel free to continue doing so. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2013, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/51 "2013-07-30T12:22:48Z")
> [@DMC](#): > > Sure he does. How about an exact quote? …your quote doesn’t state that Branson attributes his whole career to luck. Luck comes about as the result of “doing things.” If I lead a boring, decision and risk free life, odds are on that luck won’t play a big part in my life. The more decisive I am and the more risks I take: the more “luck” tends to play a part. In essence: lucky people create their own luck by making decisions and by not giving up. > [@](#): > > (I’ll note that I’ve never said it was solely luck, just that he’s had huge amounts of it, without which he likely wouldn’t be where he is today.) Actually you haven’t even shown where luck played a significant role in anything. What part of the Tubular Bells story was “luck”? Having read all of your cites it seems clear that Tubular Bells was a success because Branson worked his ass off to get the album heard by the right people. > [@](#): > > At this point, I’m going to let his own words make the case for me as they are pretty clear, whether you believe them or not. I’m not sure how you can parse “you do need lucky breaks to be successful” in any other way, but feel free to continue doing so. …we’ve all agreed that luck plays a part. Haven’t I said that luck played a part? This is the original quote you initially had issue with: > [@](#): > > Richard Branson made his first money with a magazine aimed at students. Then he founded Virgin Records. He made a fortune with that, then opened Virgin Atlantic Airways - moving from publishing to music to starting a new airline - the vast majority of which fail. He succeeded. He then created Virgin Mobile, a successful phone company. Then he financed the first successful private manned space launch and formed Virgin Galactic, which is on track to become the first private manned spaceflight company. In the meantime he’s the owner of several world records in aviation. And your response: > [@](#): > > Had it not been for the unexpected success of Tubular Bells, as well as the fact that his parents had money when he got in early trouble, who knows what would have happened. I put it to you that if Branson had not had success with Tubular Bells, he would have had success with something else. The success of Tubular Bells was “unexpected” because other people didn’t think it would be successful and walked away from it. Branson thought otherwise. Branson “made his own luck.” ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2013, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/52 "2013-07-30T13:37:07Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > I put it to you that if Branson had not had success with Tubular Bells, he would have had success with something else. The success of Tubular Bells was “unexpected” because other people didn’t think it would be successful and walked away from it. Branson thought otherwise. Branson “made his own luck.” To me, the question doesn’t really come down to “Would \ have been successful if not for luck?”, but rather to what degree luck played in the magnitude of the success. For example (one that I mentioned a while back in the thread), Mark Cuban would have been successful- hell, he was successful prior to the sale of [Broadcast.com](http://Broadcast.com) to Yahoo!. However, I think had he not sold it when he did, he’d never have been anything other than a middling-level millionaire type entrepreneur. He certainly wouldn’t have been the billionaire celebrity owner of a sports team. In his case, the success was his own, but the magnitude was almost solely due to being at the right place at the right time. Richard Branson would have been successful as well, although he had a couple of lucky breaks that he capitalized on, no question. I realize that “success” hasn’t really been defined here, but I don’t know that it really needs to be to make my point. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2013, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/53 "2013-07-30T14:58:17Z")
There’s an old saying that luck favors the prepared. You can’t be a successful entrepreneur if you don’t take advantage of the opportunities that come your way. On the other hand, no one has total control of what opportunities come to them. Another aspect often overlooked is that some of those mega-successful business types also had mega-setbacks (didn’t Henry Ford go bankrupt more than once before his blow-out success with the Model T?) so another aspect, in addition to hard work and luck, is the ability to persevere despite setbacks and disasters. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2013, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/54 "2013-07-30T17:16:02Z")
Many of the successful entrepreneurs I know endured a lot of failures before they finally made it. Which makes me think that dogged persistence (or boundless optimism, if you like) must be a factor. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2013, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/55 "2013-07-31T03:32:14Z")
> [@DMC](#): > > I didn’t say he wouldn’t have been successful just that luck played a **huge** role in where he is today. I’m not getting the impression that people realize just how big of a record it was, especially so in the UK. As for Branson and his business acumen, I’d guess that he’d have become a millionaire without such luck, perhaps even a multi-millionaire. Nevertheless, he will repeatedly tell you how important record was to his career, in any forum, over and over again. This is a guy who was later sued by Oldfield and Oldfield even encoded “Fuck off RB” on one of his albums. > > [BBC Interview (audio)](http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01sdw2q/Front_Row_Richard_Branson_on_Tubular_Bells_Alison_Balsom_Cannes/) > [On the importance of John Peel’s playing of the album in its entirety on Radio 1](http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/08/07/richard-branson-john-peel-mike-oldfield-tubular-bells_n_1751752.html) > [More on Tubular Bells and how it came about](http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/Music/article/did-tubular-bells-make-richard-branson-rich/) > > So, you have a guy with a good instinct as well as business acumen, a willingness to take some risks, mix in several strokes of extraordinary luck (as well as smaller misfortunes), and you get a billionaire. Being quite a Mike fan, especially considering I live in the US, I can support this. TB was not just a song - it was a two side fully instrumental (except for Viv and some grunts) album by a kid under 20 who played almost all the instruments. Not exactly the recipe for a best seller. A huge best seller. The Fuck Off RB bit is in Amarok, and one track 60 minute piece, the second to last for Virgin, which was decidedly non-commercial - but brilliant. His last record for Virgin, Heavens Open, was all about getting out of the contract. So, ripping off the artist had something to do with Branson’s success too. When I took Virgin to England they played TB as we were loading. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2013, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/56 "2013-07-31T03:40:52Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > While luck certainly plays a part in everything we do, successful entrepreneurs do things and behave in ways that maximize their chance for success. Harvard Business School has studied serial entrepreneurs, and he’s an article about what they found: [Why some startups succeed and others fail](http://www.businessinsider.com/why-some-startups-succeed-and-others-fail-10-fascinating-harvard-findings-2012-1). One can always find a reason for failure after the failure. I challenge anyone to be successful most of the time. Obviously, of the thousands of successful startups you can find a few which lead to new successes - but most don’t. BTW, does NeXT ring a bell, Sam? The small number of second successes show that it isn’t all brilliance. The Black Swan talks all about selection bias. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2013, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/57 "2013-07-31T03:46:41Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > Facebook is a superior product to MySpace in every way. > No one can replicate the success of Harry Potter with the kind of book Rowling wrote as “Robert Gailbraith.” It’s two difference niches and kids fantasy has always been popular in a way that stodgy British mysteries haven’t. That said, she got it published without anyone having any knowledge it was written by her. The book was published on its merits, not her name, which is a huge accomplishment all the same. One of the reasons the Times thought that there was something to the rumor is that Galbraith’s agent was also Rowling’s - someone who would never give Galbraith the time of day. And the publisher certainly knew who wrote the book. Do you have a cite to the contrary? ---
**Author:** ![Zoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a4c791/32.png) [@Zoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoe)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2013, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/58 "2013-08-01T13:17:16Z")
The gentleman who founded Halliburton Oil was from a rural area of north-West Tennessee. He invented a “contraption” while working for an oil company. They didn’t seem to take to his initiative and for one reason or another, fired him. He went to work with another oil drilling company who found his device very helpful. From there he worked his way up in the ranks to put it mildly. After he was already a success, he tired of having fragile items (cameras, perhaps) jostled around while he was flying. So he came up with a solution to the problems with a case that would protect them. It’s known as “the Halliburton Case” or the “Zero Halliburton Case.” [http://www.google.com/search?q=The+Halliburton+Case](http://www.google.com/search?q=The+Halliburton+Case) I see them on television all the time, but I’ve never been able to afford one – or at least, find a good reason to afford one. Anyway, its invention added to his fortune. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2013, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/59 "2013-08-01T13:42:37Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > Facebook is a superior product to MySpace in every way. > > No one can replicate the success of Harry Potter with the kind of book Rowling wrote as “Robert Gailbraith.” It’s two difference niches and kids fantasy has always been popular **in a way that stodgy British mysteries haven’t.** I’ll keep that in mind next time I read Agatha Christie or Sherlock Holmes. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2013, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604/60 "2013-08-01T15:29:50Z")
To add to what has been said-to start a large enterprise (like a new garbage collection business) requires a LOT of money. You can only raise this kind of cash if you have a good track record. Even a modest restaurant is a huge investment…so if yo have made a lot of money in your first venture, your chances of succeeding again are much higher because of this. Nikola Tesla was a great inventor, but he had no business sense-if it hadn’t been for George Westinghouse, Tesla would have failed. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-many-wealthy-entrepreneurs-repeat-their-success-how-much-luck-is-involved/664604.md?page=4)