# Could terrorists use New York rats to release Bubonic plague? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [July 23, 2002, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301 "2002-07-23T00:06:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Indy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e480ec/32.png) [@Indy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Indy)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2002, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/21 "2002-07-24T13:34:38Z")
Well, we also really have to look at th 1300’s as a whole. This was a BAD time to be alive. A series of famines and animal murrains had already screwed everyone around for thirty years or so before the plague even showed up, and the decade 1310 to 1319 is the worst decade of famine in European history, so people were already not having much fun. Plague is NOT indigenous to Europe. The Black Death came from the far east where the second Pandemic began in the 1330’s. The first Christian community to record it was some Nestorian Christians in India in 1335 (I think the year is right, i don’t have my thesis handy). By 1349, the entire Muslim world was infected. Reached Europe in August/September 1347 and lasted that time until 1350ish. Pope Clement VI (who survived, although 3 archbishops of Canterbury were not so lucky) estimated the pre-plague population of Europe at roughly 78,000,000 and the plague killed roughly a third of Europe’s population by 1351 (when England’s first ever sanitation laws were enacted, cool, huh?). What we forget is that the pandemic works in cycles. Let’s look at England: The Plague came back in 1360-61 and took another 20% of who was left, 1369 with 13% mortality, 1390 10%, 1399 10%, and at least 12 national epidemics in the 1400’s, including 1479-80 15-20% mortality. This is in addition to local epidemics that happened somewhere every couple of years. This is a BAD disease, and guess what? It’s NOT going to become an epidemic in NYC. For one thing, Y. Pestis (the bacillus) is not native to the area, so it’d be tough to start. For another, as stated before, rats don’t go for people that often, and, much more importantly, neither really do fleas if you have reasonably good sanitation habits. You can’t catch bubonic plague from another person, and it’s fairly curable now, as pointed out, and even with no cure, roughly 50% fatal, but YOU HAVE TO GET IT FIRST. When I was working on my thesis in the 80’s, there were theories that pneumonic plague occured after sharp temperature drops when the bacillus could enter the lungs, but they weren’t sure. If there’s been progress here, someone can please enlighten me. Also, since pneumonic plague is so virulent, it tends to kill it’s hosts before they can really get it spreading, which is a no no if you’re a future oriented virus. BUT, you could do like in the movies and bring black rats (rattus rattus, I love that) to New York, with plague samples from Nevada or Manchuria, train the rats to actively seek close human contact, and, when the whole thing gets started, move the earth slightly out of orbit so we get that sudden temperature drop and then, my friends, we just might get that Pneumonic plague epidemic. I hope no terrorists read that, because other than one minor obstacle, it shouldn’t be too hard, should it? ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2002, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/22 "2002-07-24T15:48:15Z")
Could terrorists use New York rats to release Bubonic plague? In sum, no. But, if they were to equip every single bad@ss giant rat in the Big Apple with a Saturday Night Special— :eek: ! Even Shaft couldn’t save us from that! ---
**Author:** ![Indy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e480ec/32.png) [@Indy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Indy)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2002, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/23 "2002-07-24T16:44:41Z")
"But, if they were to equip every single bad@ss giant rat in the Big Apple with a Saturday Night Special— ! " We could do that Bosda, but we’d also have to equip them with opposable thumbs. ---
**Author:** ![ratty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ccd318/32.png) [@ratty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ratty)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2002, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/24 "2002-07-24T17:16:17Z")
And now for a hijack: IMHO, people really seem to overestimate the size of rats. I have a lot of barn rats that people unfamiliar with wild rats _swear_ are as big as cats, but this is not the case. I think people’s fear of rats coupled with catching usually fleeting glimpses of them in dark places leads to this “rat so big it’s blocking the sun” syndrome. The average size for the most common US rat species, the brown or Norway rat (_Rattus norvegicus_) is approx. 15 inches from nose to tail, the tail making up slightly less than half of the body length. The usual weight for this species about 3/4 of a pound. The largest rat ever caught, according to More Cunning Than Man: A Complete History of the Rat and its Role in Human Civilization, by Richard Hendrickson, was about 24 inches long from nose to tail, and weighed three pounds. So, due to garabge availability and increased living space, NYC rats may be bigger than your average rat, but the reports of frightened city workers and exterminators notwithstanding, they are definitely not all that big in the grand scheme of things. ---
**Author:** ![Sparc](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/65b543/32.png) [@Sparc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sparc)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2002, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/25 "2002-07-24T23:06:40Z")
> [@](#): > > 24 inches long from nose to tail, and weighed three pounds. Don’t mind rats at all, used to have them as pets in my youthfull days of rebellion, but I gotta say that your idea of relative smallness is, how should I put it… of unexpected proportions. ---
**Author:** ![techchick68](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ea5d25/32.png) [@techchick68](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/techchick68)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2002, 9:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/26 "2002-07-25T09:51:58Z")
FWIW, we have the bubonic plague here in Colorado, rarely do people die from it just the prairie dogs and/or squirrels. Nothing to add but that. ---
**Author:** ![partly\_warmer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/bc8723/32.png) [@partly\_warmer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/partly_warmer)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2002, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/27 "2002-07-25T21:06:12Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by bibliophage \* > \*\*1. I don’t expect that a lot of terrorists read the SDMB. > 2. The answer to the OP’s question seems to be “not easily.” > 3. If the Centers for Disease Control can talk about it publicly, so can we. > > bibliophage > moderator GQ \*\* I realize this is one of those “freedom of information” issues, and that people have strong feelings about it, both ways. On point 1 there seem to have been people on the SDMB with radical, militant leanings. And I seem to remember more than one crime where the criminals said “I saw it on TV, and tried it.” On point 2, any work that’s done, conclusive or not, helps someone weed through the alternatives. I spend a fair amount of my time professionally and at home working through innovative ideas. When I come upon one that seems like it might have a great deal of harmful potential, I don’t write it down. I wish several American and British scientists of this century had done the same. ---
**Author:** ![Boo\_Boo\_Foo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e274bd/32.png) [@Boo\_Boo\_Foo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boo_Boo_Foo)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2002, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/28 "2002-07-25T23:45:07Z")
Partly\_Warmer - your concerns have merit - certainly. And indeed, not all potential threats to Western Democracy stem from overseas ‘external’ countries - just look at the Timothy McVeigh case as an example to see how threats can be very ‘internal’ indeed. You may have noticed in my original post that I apologised in advance if this thread was sailing a dash close to the wind - however, one thing swayed me over to thinking it would be OK to create the thread - namely this… it’s my observation that the nature of this particular terrorist threat would require great planning and many participants, and as such, it would be much harder to implement in total secrecy. ---
**Author:** ![Sparc](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/65b543/32.png) [@Sparc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sparc)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2002, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/29 "2002-07-26T01:21:29Z")
> [@](#): > > …and many participants. As in a few million rats, or what? Sparc …this is getting a little silly, don’t you think? ---
**Author:** ![Indy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e480ec/32.png) [@Indy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Indy)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2002, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/30 "2002-07-26T01:30:54Z")
But Sparc, you’ve got such a sweet ass, so keep writing. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2002, 8:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/31 "2002-07-26T08:17:57Z")
**partly\_warmer** , the odds of anyone being able to pull this off are so slight as to be laughable. We’d do just as well to discuss plans for making nuclear weapons: Even with step-by-step instructions and every word of information written on the subject since the 1930s, key materials (fissile materials of the grade needed to create a critical mass) are so out of reach of the average citizen nobody who would read this board could possibly follow those steps and end up with a viable weapon. With this, the parts out of the reach of the average person are the disease itself and the biological technology needed to weaponize the strain. Just as you can’t create a fission device out of tinfoil, you can’t make weapons-grade diseases with moldy bread. ---
**Author:** ![partly\_warmer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/bc8723/32.png) [@partly\_warmer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/partly_warmer)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2002, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/32 "2002-07-26T11:48:59Z")
I’m sorry, but I’m really losing patience with this line of reasoning. Either it’s convenient to cause a plague with rats, or it isn’t. If it is, then God rest your souls. How stupid do you think terrorists are? Having lived through Berkeley in the 1960s, let me explain something. People who want to hurt lots of other people aren’t necessarily stupid. Some are very intelligent. If there’s nothing practical about infecting with rats, then why is the subject interesting? You can’t have it both ways. ---
**Author:** ![partly\_warmer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/bc8723/32.png) [@partly\_warmer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/partly_warmer)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2002, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/33 "2002-07-26T12:09:16Z")
…sorry… i really wasn’t trying to be confrontational so much as explain in a convincingly. Really, this subject is hurting me. When you’ve had a friend come into your room, and ask whether his plan for ambushing a police car would work… it’s just not a game. ---
**Author:** ![j666](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de0a6/32.png) [@j666](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/j666)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2002, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/34 "2002-07-26T12:30:56Z")
Is ‘rattus rattus’ extinct or not? I thought it was. ---
**Author:** ![Sparc](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/65b543/32.png) [@Sparc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sparc)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2002, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/35 "2002-07-26T12:57:49Z")
> [@](#): > > Is ‘rattus rattus’ extinct or not? [Nope.](http://animaldiversity.ummz.umich.edu/accounts/rattus/r._rattus%24narrative.html) As re the other discussion… whatever. Sparc …and Indy; me stop writing? You know I can’t! (what my sweet ass has to do with that I know not). ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2002, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/36 "2002-07-26T13:08:55Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by partly\_warmer \* > **On point 1 there seem to have been people on the SDMB with radical, militant leanings. And I seem to remember more than one crime where the criminals said "I saw it on TV, and tried it."** Who? The Congressional Subcommittee of unSDMB Activities wants you to name names. ---
**Author:** ![partly\_warmer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/bc8723/32.png) [@partly\_warmer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/partly_warmer)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2002, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/37 "2002-07-26T13:11:20Z")
(laughs) Ok. I confess. It was you. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2002, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/38 "2002-07-26T13:35:30Z")
> [@](#): > > If there’s nothing practical about infecting with rats, then why is the subject interesting? Ever heard of curiosity ? OTOH, witness all the GQ threads about big, firm, bouncy, **impractical** breasts, and explain why that’s also a boring subject. No one’s talking about making _Y. pestis_ a better weapon by [inserting interleukin 4 genes](http://www.i-sis.org.uk/GM_aids_virus.php) or any such practical matters here. What we have is a simple, and healthy, exploration of the possibilities. IMHO, of course. ---
**Author:** ![Sparc](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/65b543/32.png) [@Sparc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sparc)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2002, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/39 "2002-07-26T15:32:25Z")
As far as I understand _Rattus rattus_ is classified into five subspecies, _R. r._ alexandrinus (Alexandria black rat), _R. r._ brevicaudatus (Sawah rat), _R. r._ diardii (Malayan black rat), _R. r._ frugivorous (fruit rat), and _R. r._ rattus (black rat). [ol]A) Is that correct classification? My sources seem to vary between 3 and 5 subspecies. B) I understand that the _R. r._ rattus (black rat) is the most common in Europe today (within the _Rattus rattus_ species that is). Correct? C) This site [claims](http://animaldiversity.ummz.umich.edu/accounts/rattus/r._rattus%24narrative.html) that _R. r._ brevicaudatus (Sawah rat), especially, has been known to cause famine, implying that to be a more destructive subspecies. Is this correct and is it generally correct that the subspecies behave somewhat differently? D) If A, B and C are correct, is there any evidence that a temporary infestation of for instance Sawah rat (in conjunction to Indy’s other premises) might have contributed to the outbreak of the Black death in Europe?[/ol] Far fetched? Well, I’m in a tinfoil hat kind of mood. I guess I shouldn’t have rearranged my collection of crystals last night. Sparc ---
**Author:** ![Sparc](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/65b543/32.png) [@Sparc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sparc)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2002, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301/40 "2002-07-26T15:40:10Z")
As far as I understand _Rattus rattus_ is classified into five subspecies, _R. r._ alexandrinus (Alexandria black rat), _R. r._ brevicaudatus (Sawah rat), _R. r._ diardii (Malayan black rat), _R. r._ frugivorous (fruit rat), and _R. r._ rattus (black rat). [ol]A) Is that correct classification? My sources seem to vary between 3 and 5 subspecies. B) I understand that the _R. r._ rattus (black rat) is the most common in Europe today (within the _Rattus rattus_ species that is). Correct? C) This site [claims](http://animaldiversity.ummz.umich.edu/accounts/rattus/r._rattus%24narrative.html) that _R. r._ brevicaudatus (Sawah rat), especially, has been known to cause famine, implying that to be a more destructive subspecies. Is this correct and is it generally correct that the subspecies behave somewhat differently? D) If A, B and C are correct, is there any evidence that a temporary infestation of for instance Sawah rat (in conjunction to Indy’s other premises) might have contributed to the outbreak of the Black death in Europe?[/ol] Far fetched? Well, I’m in a tinfoil hat kind of mood. I guess I shouldn’t have rearranged my collection of crystals last night. Sparc [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-terrorists-use-new-york-rats-to-release-bubonic-plague/120301.md?page=3)