It wouldn’t be a Gun Control Topic without me tossing my two-cents into the machine, so here goes:
I agree with just about everything everyone has so far said; I’m seeing degrees of difference in their answers, rather than differing viewpoints (a subtle distinction, but heck, I can slice the baloney pretty damned thin).
So I’ll instead encapsulate and summarize, with what I perceive as a “chance of happening” blurb.
1. Amend The Constitution.
Probability:<.000001
Yes, the mechanismes are in place to add an amendment repealing the 2nd. This doesn’t automatically equate to a gun ban, but if the repeal-the-2nd-amendment amendment were to be passed, there would certainly be no obstacle to a total gun ban law.
However, as has already been pointed out (and I wholeheartedly agree), to do so would require a massive, unprecedented act of mutual political suicide at the State and Federal level, not to mention a severely “packed” Supreme Court.
And actual implementation would be as problematic as has already been noted. Door-to-door “John Doe” searches would result in a nation-wide massive “Blue Flu” epidemic from almost every level of law enforcement. Activating the military to take over the job of door-to-door confiscations may cause massive desertions; at least the officer corps would mutiny, especially the Marines (who take their jobs, their country and particularly their Constitution very seriously. I am not kidding!).
Now at this point, conspiracy theorists will chime in and tell you about the “U.N. Peacekeepers” who are poised and ready to invade Amerika to enforce the Satanic Rule of the the “New World Order” one-world government. One of the itemds supposedly on their agenda is to go house-to-house searching for guns, confiscating them, and arresting and imprisoning the now former-gun-owners.
Probability: Check the Thermometer in Hell.
Believe as much or as little of the last paragraph as you choose.
2. Incremental Infringement.
Probability: >50%
This method, so far has been the preferred (and somewhat successfull) tactic of the gun-control people advocating total gun-bans. They attempt to throw legislative, regulatory and financial roadblocks into the path of gun-owners, they demonize and disparage gun-owners with offensive stereotypes.
They continuously try to have the bar raised a bit higher every year, with:
waiting periods: hoping prospective buyers become impatient and give up;
mandatory trigger locks: trying to drive up prices and discourage buyers;
mandatory storage laws: same;
mandatory liability insurance requirements: same;
"special" taxes on guns and ammo: same;
gun-owner licensing: to make the licensing process so incredibly byzantine as to make it impossible to obtain
raising minimum age requirements: to break the “generational” cycle of the “gun culture”
Bans on certain types of weapons: with more and more weapons being added over time, until eventually they’re all banned
There are more, but you get the idea.
I’ll point out that not all gun-control advocates are pushing for total bans; I believe that quite a few (maybe as high as 60%, IMHO) merely want an end to violence, and since gun violence is such an attention grabber, guns are quite naturally a focus for them. They seem to want more regulation, but not an outright ban.
The problem with this is that the total-ban faction (the most vocal and visible) would gladly sieze upon any reasonable compromise on the part of gun owners as a springboard for more and more restrictive regulation.
Which is why the NRA (and many other gun-owners) are so adamantly resistant to any further compromise.
I’ll readily admit to mud-slinging and fear-mongering on the part of both pro- and anti-gun sides; but the pro-gun side does seem to have a better handle on the math (statistics), history, law and technical aspects [of firearms] than the anti-gun side.
For instance: “Cop-Killer” Armor-Piercing Bullets
The categories of bullets that the gun-control crowd included would have virtually eliminated hunting in America (and animal-rights activists would be happy to see it go, but that’s another Question).
Technical: Bullets specifically designed to pierce armor are rare. They are manufactured in very limited quantities for law enforcement, and not sold to the general public, for reasons described below.
And there is no practical thickness of body armor capable of being worn that will protect a person from a standard hunting round from a medium-caliber, single-shot hunting rifle.
Math: The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms reprted to Congress that no law enforcement officer has ever been killed or even injured because an armor piercing bullet penetrated a bullet-resistant vest.
Law: Armor piercing bullets are already illegal, and have been so since 1986, and prohibit the manufacture and importation, for private use, of handgun bullets made of special, hard metals and (in a 1994 amendment) specially-jacketed lead bullets.
Another example: "Plastic Guns"
Supposedly “detection-proof” guns made from synthetic materials, used for nefarious purposes.
Technical: The entire issue was raised in response to reports concerning a particular firearm, the Glock 17. The Glock 17-constructed of more than a pound of hardened steel, about 83% of its total weight-was fully detectable by airport security systems when it was approved for importation by BATF.
Math and Law: As there are zero instances of any criminal activity with an “undetectable” gun, there are no laws against any particular, non-existent “undetectable” firearms.
The above statements are not meant to engender debate, but to illustrate my point that the gun-ban faction of the larger gun-control crowd will use any tactic to get their agenda of total gun-bans advanced.
And with what appears to be rampant voter apathy, a media that doesn’t bother to get their facts straight in the interest of a few ratings points (it seems fear is the #1 Bestseller in America nowadays) and politicians all-too-willing to jump on the whatever popular band-wagon come along, I give it slightly better-than-even odds of individual, private gun ownership in America completely disappearing by the end of this century.
ExTank
“Mostly Harmless :p”