# Could the US survive the loss of the power grid for 18 months? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 11, 2016, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566 "2016-05-11T18:24:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/61 "2016-05-12T18:20:36Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Within a couple of weeks, most Americans would have lost the following: > [li]the ability to communicate with anyone farther away than their voice will carry[/li]. Why, do you think cell towers and land lines would go down? ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/62 "2016-05-12T18:23:27Z")
> [@](#): > > If the food production and shipping business was profitable before the collapse, it should be after the collapse. Not necessarily - the cost of shipping/producing is likely to go up. And sure, the price of food will go up, too. Until it’s high enough that some people can’t afford to buy it (a lot of unemployment is going to happen - I’m a programmer, and I don’t see all us still having jobs). And that’s presuming the fertilizers and pesticides are still being produced. Which they may not be able to do. Or at least, they’ll be more expensive because they don’t have cheap electricity in the production chain, but more expensive power from generators. I definitely think that that would be one of the places for fuel to be directed towards (and screw the open market - I think there will definitely be government intervention in where the fuel goes). > [@](#): > > No one might know how much money there actually was in the company accounts before everything went to hell, but a company check, handwritten, would be accepted by a bank. Not if they can’t confirm the business can cover it. They could do that for a few days in an emergency situation, but not long-term. Business will (if they’re still open), likely be cash only, as you said. And we don’t have _that_ much cash in the US, and everyone will be trying to get what cash they can from banks, but banks only keep so much cash on-hand. And they have to confirm you have it in your account before they’ll give it to you. I may have 100K in the bank, but if the bank can’t access the records to know that, I’m stuck with whatever is in my wallet. Yeah, we used to do everything on paper - but I’m not even certain there are paper copies of a lot of this data anymore. And then there’s the societal reaction - people are going to be freaking out. That will lead to hoarding and stealing and price gouging and so on. And it’s going to be difficult to report and deal with. It’s a very unstable situation, and people as a whole don’t always deal with that so well. > [@](#): > > Why, do you think cell towers and land lines would go down? They need power. And there is going to be a shortage of power. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/63 "2016-05-12T18:24:23Z")
Cell towers require power, as do cell phone batteries. Dump the grid and that all goes away. Eventually. On the up-side, all those billionaires will be in the same boat as the rest of us, only worse. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/64 "2016-05-12T18:39:13Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > Cell towers require power, as do cell phone batteries. Dump the grid and that all goes away. Eventually. > > On the up-side, all those billionaires will be in the same boat as the rest of us, only worse. Cell phones can be recharged by solar or crank devices. In fact i suggest everyone get one of those along with a emergency radio. ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/65 "2016-05-12T18:51:19Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Cell phones can be recharged by solar or crank devices. > > In fact i suggest everyone get one of those along with a emergency radio. But in this case, the outage isn’t short term and the backup generators will eventually run out of fuel and leave us without cell or regular service. This actually happened to us once after a hurricane, when a part was damaged and had to be ordered and we were out of power for over a week. Phone worked for a while, but after several days, no power meant no phone. And while some of those could be powered by generators, there aren’t enough generators available, and bills would have to get much higher to cover the costs of the purchases and fuel. And fuel will be expensive, so may require added security at locations with large amounts to deter theft. And with phone prices higher and so many unemployed or underemployed (even if they can get manual labor type work or paper clerical or money handling that needs doing with no power, it’s likely lower wage) more people will drop service. Which means the company needs to make enough money to keep service going with fewer customers, so prices may go up even more. Also, how many power company employees will lose their jobs? There may be government subsidies and/or insurance to cover some of the expenses, but people aren’t going to keep paying for months while they have no power. And that infrastructure needs to be maintained (though I don’t know how much labor that is). Just something to think about. FTR, I’m using “18 months” as when the grid _start_ coming back up, piece by piece, not when it finishes. That does make a difference, I know. BTW, does Texas still have it’s own independent power grid? Are we presuming they do or do not have power during this event? I was going with “not” because I thought the premise of the thread was nation-wide blackout. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/66 "2016-05-12T19:11:16Z")
A little quick googling seems to indicate that Texas _does_ have an independent power grid. Not that it will do them much good during a CE, but a terrorist attack is a different story. With the right spare parts on hand, Texas could be the only state with power for quite a bit. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/67 "2016-05-12T19:38:16Z")
> [@Tzigone](#): > > And then there’s the societal reaction - people are going to be freaking out. That will lead to hoarding and stealing and price gouging and so on. And it’s going to be difficult to report and deal with. It’s a very unstable situation, and people as a whole don’t always deal with that so well. Freaking out for a straight 18 months? The instant that the time-to-fix estimate comes out, everyone will shut up and start taking orders. None of the problems that anyone has listed are insurmountable, given clear leadership and reasonable suggestions. Yes, if everyone just goes insane and sits in the corner rocking back and forth for 18 months, many will die. But it just takes a few, reasonable people to speak up and get people organized to work around the gaps. Fundamentally, the only necessity for life is growing food and getting it distributed. No matter how disorganized you might think the government is, I think they can figure out how to mobilize people to keep that one pipeline moving. The people will move out of the North on their own, to their family’s homes in the South. No intervention necessary. Cold temperatures aren’t a problem. There’s no lack of indoor space in the US, so shelter isn’t a problem. ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/68 "2016-05-12T19:45:20Z")
> [@](#): > > Freaking out for a straight 18 months? Not, but freaking out may well cause damage that lasts the entire 18 months. > [@](#): > > Fundamentally, the only necessity for life is growing food and getting it distributed. No matter how disorganized you might think the government is, I think they can figure out how to mobilize people to keep that one pipeline moving. I’m not talking about the death of every person in the country. Heck, I didn’t even think “Can the US survive” meant that - I thought it was referring to the government. What I’m saying is not “Mad Max” but that everything will not be basically okay with cars running and power for all necessities from generators and checks being cashed and so on. > [@](#): > > The instant that the time-to-fix estimate comes out, everyone will shut up and start taking orders. None of the problems that anyone has listed are insurmountable, given clear leadership and reasonable suggestions. Insurmountable, maybe not - but not the non-issue that some are making it out to be. That’s all I’m saying - there will be some chaos to start, and it be very rough after that. 70s gas lines and WWII rationing would seem like a walk in the park. There would mass unemployment, a large rise in crime, and severe shortages. Hoarding of anything non-perishable would be a logical, reasonable think for an individual to do (and keeping quiet about it so as not to get robbed). ---
**Author:** ![DrCube](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a3d4f5/32.png) [@DrCube](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrCube)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/69 "2016-05-12T19:51:17Z")
Unless they hit every generator and power plant in the country, every state will still have power, or at least the potential to generate power. (And don’t forget, Hawaii also has its own grid.) The issue will be transmitting it to customers. What I think they are referring to, when they say a terrorist could wipe out the power grid by attacking a few nodes, is a [cascading failure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascading_failure#Cascading_failure_in_power_transmission) of the sort that happened in the Northeast in 2003. That very well could cause a national blackout, but the power will start coming back on within days. In fact, a cascading failure of the power grid is the sort of thing we could just “turn it off and turn it back on again”, which would take quite a while to coordinate across multiple utilities, but it won’t be 18 months of total darkness. I can see it taking 18 months (or more) to get back to previous full capacity, but with proper conservation, I doubt we’ll even see a lot of extra heat strokes, let alone food/fuel shortages, martial law or financial meltdown. But it all depends on what specifically the terrorists do to the grid. It is certainly more fragile than I’d like. But I think “a full year and a half plunged back into the 19th century” is completely out of the realm of possibility. Even the USSR at its military peak couldn’t take out all US electrical assets or even a significant number of them (barring total nuclear war, I suppose). ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/70 "2016-05-12T20:11:12Z")
> [@](#): > > What I think they are referring to, when they say a terrorist could wipe out the power grid by attacking a few nodes, is a cascading failure of the sort that happened in the Northeast in 2003. That very well could cause a national blackout, but the power will start coming back on within days. In fact, a cascading failure of the power grid is the sort of thing we could just “turn it off and turn it back on again”, which would take quite a while to coordinate across multiple utilities, but it won’t be 18 months of total darkness. I can see it taking 18 months (or more) to get back to previous full capacity, but with proper conservation, I doubt we’ll even see a lot of extra heat strokes, let alone food/fuel shortages, martial law or financial meltdown… I agree on cascading power being what’s referred to in the article, but was trying to go by title of “no power for 18 months” for the hypothetical. Which is why I didn’t give Texas power, too. > [@](#): > > But it all depends on what specifically the terrorists do to the grid. It is certainly more fragile than I’d like. But I think “a full year and a half plunged back into the 19th century” is completely out of the realm of possibility. Even the USSR at its military peak couldn’t take out all US electrical assets or even a significant number of them (barring total nuclear war, I suppose). Ooh, nuclear war hypotheticals! Kinda funny that I’m going with 18 months of no power in the grid at all considering how frustrated I can get with EMP presentation in nuclear war discussions that act like absolutely everything electric will be killed and made unrevivable by an EMP. Hypocritical of me, really. Guess it’s because I haven’t read a dozen variations on this one that go that route yet. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/71 "2016-05-12T20:17:22Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > The people will move out of the North on their own, to their family’s homes in the South. No intervention necessary. Cold temperatures aren’t a problem. This statement is so laughably ignorant the mind boggles. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/72 "2016-05-12T20:19:22Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Why, do you think cell towers and land lines would go down? I covered that in more detail in post #46. Basically, there are critical components of the system that need electricity to run, and they won’t have it. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/73 "2016-05-12T20:30:27Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Cell phones can be recharged by solar or crank devices. Charging your cell _phone_ is all well and good, but we’re talking about the power supply at the cell _tower_ (and at the data center that the call gets switched to on its way to your intended recipient). There aren’t any hand cranks big enough to power _those_ things. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/74 "2016-05-12T20:31:48Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > This statement is so laughably ignorant the mind boggles. So you’d stay and freeze, rather than go visit your relatives? Good for you. Good luck with that. Me, I’d go. ---
**Author:** ![edwardcoast](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/cab0a1/32.png) [@edwardcoast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/edwardcoast)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/75 "2016-05-12T20:32:30Z")
> [@sweeteviljesus](#): > > We had a blackout in my neighborhood yesterday and it got me to thinking about a report in the media that stated that if terrorist simultaneously hit a small number of key substations on a hot summer day, it would knock out the grid for 18 months. > > (here is a [link](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304020104579433670284061220) to a similar story, but I don’t believe it mentions the 18 month figure) > > Were that to happen, or some other event that removed electrical distribution capability for 18 months in the US and Canada, what would happen? A massive depression? Dogs and cats living together? Nothing good, I am sure, but realistically, how bad would it be? Do we have anything to go by? > > Thanks, > Rob I’d be more interested to know who pitched this story for publication. Was it the backup generator company that has this long and scary infomercial? Where they imply the doom and gloom of the power grid. After watching the infomercial, you almost become convinced that having a background generator is going to make a hurricane turn around and go away from your home. 18 months sounds way too long. The utility companies likely have disaster recovery contingency plans in place. Even during hurricane Sandy we were only without power for less than two days and the majority of the streets were blocked due to fallen trees and power lines. They called in resources from outside the area for that so they must be planning all the time for a disaster and how to handle it. After all, it is their business. If you don’t have any power they can’t bill you for it, so it is in their own best interests to continue to provide service no matter what the disaster is. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/76 "2016-05-12T20:34:50Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > So you’d stay and freeze, rather than go visit your relatives? > > Good for you. Me, I’d go. While that may work swell for you, there are plenty of people who don’t have relatives in the South, or there relatives wouldn’t want to take them in, or they don’t have a vehicle they can use to get to them, etc. There are lots of people that your “solution” doesn’t work for. Please tell me you understand this. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/77 "2016-05-12T20:40:47Z")
> [@edwardcoast](#): > > 18 months sounds way too long. The utility companies likely have disaster recovery contingency plans in place. Even during hurricane Sandy we were only without power for less than two days and the majority of the streets were blocked due to fallen trees and power lines. They called in resources from outside the area for that so they must be planning all the time for a disaster and how to handle it. After all, it is their business. If you don’t have any power they can’t bill you for it, so it is in their own best interests to continue to provide service no matter what the disaster is. This is key. In local disaster, like Katrina or Sandy, the entire rest of the country was able to send resources and support. That makes a big difference in alleviating suffering and speeding up the recovery. If the entire country was affected, you won’t be getting big shipments of supplies and outside help, because everyone’s dealing with the mess in their local area. ---
**Author:** ![drewder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/57b2e6/32.png) [@drewder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewder)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/78 "2016-05-12T20:41:10Z")
All you inner city types, especially in densely packed north eastern cities would be screwed. The further you lived from there the less inconvenienced you’d be. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/79 "2016-05-12T20:45:13Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > While that may work swell for you, there are plenty of people who don’t have relatives in the South, or there relatives wouldn’t want to take them in, or they don’t have a vehicle they can use to get to them, etc. There are lots of people that your “solution” doesn’t work for. Please tell me you understand this. I do, and I’ve addressed it. For those who have relatives, friends, etc. they’ll find housing. For those that don’t, local governments will put them up in existing buildings, office buildings, etc. See post 30. And yes, some people won’t be able to move without help. So as you’re packing up to leave, the local Transport Head will come around and ask you to take the old lady living in the apartment next to yours with you. Where do you take her? Well the Head guy will have asked her where she has family, and he would have asked everyone where they’re planning to go, and asked you because you’re going to someplace close. Failing that, he might ask if you’ll be able to take her in at the other end. Failing that, he’ll have to hope that the government at the other end is repurposing buildings for shelter - and he’ll probably be right. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/80 "2016-05-12T20:49:27Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > The people will move out of the North on their own, to their family’s homes in the South. No intervention necessary. Cold temperatures aren’t a problem. Many homes in the Southern US would be uncomfortable at best in a summer without air conditioning. Older homes, like those built in the nineteenth century, were designed to allow air to circulate and cool the homes. Or people slept out on porches. But homes built more recently were designed to be cooled by air conditioning. And what are these Northern refugees going to do for work for eighteen months? Most of them have jobs up north and children in school. Someone mentioned Katrina, and that’s a good example. Thousands of people relocated from New Orleans but that was only possible because most of the rest of the country was unaffected. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566.md?page=5)