# Could the US survive the loss of the power grid for 18 months? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 11, 2016, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566 "2016-05-11T18:24:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![drewder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/57b2e6/32.png) [@drewder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewder)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/81 "2016-05-12T20:53:37Z")
My prediction is the inter-mountain (Mormon) west will survive the best. They’ve been preparing for this for the last 150 years and a large percentage of the population has a year or 2 of food, water, and other supplies. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/82 "2016-05-12T20:57:41Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > I do, and I’ve addressed it. > > For those who have relatives, friends, etc. they’ll find housing. For those that don’t, local governments will put them up in existing buildings, office buildings, etc. See post 30. > > And yes, some people won’t be able to move without help. So as you’re packing up to leave, the local Transport Head will come around and ask you to take the old lady living in the apartment next to yours with you. Where do you take her? Well the Head guy will have asked her where she has family, and he would have asked everyone where they’re planning to go, and asked you because you’re going to someplace close. Failing that, he might ask if you’ll be able to take her in at the other end. Failing that, he’ll have to hope that the government at the other end is repurposing buildings for shelter - and he’ll probably be right. Moving 74 million people several hundred miles south in a matter of months (assuming power went out in the summer and winter is coming) would be the most massive migration of humans ever attempted in a comparable time frame. Literally nothing like that has ever been done before. And to add to the complexity of that immeasurably-complex operation, you’d have to do it without computers or cell phones, or traffic signals, or functioning gas stations along the way. About 73.9 million of those people would have no way to communicate with anyone farther away than the sound of their own voices. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/83 "2016-05-12T20:58:59Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > So you’d stay and freeze, rather than go visit your relatives? > > Good for you. Good luck with that. Me, I’d go. Surprisingly, a majority of the population don’t have relatives in the southern states that they can de-camp upon. And what happens to the southern families when they are suddenly crushed under the weight of their northern sponges. The assumption that everybody in the country has the means, method, money or mother-in-law to move is monumentally mistaken. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/84 "2016-05-12T20:59:46Z")
> [@drewder](#): > > My prediction is the inter-mountain (Mormon) west will survive the best. They’ve been preparing for this for the last 150 years and a large percentage of the population has a year or 2 of food, water, and other supplies. I agree. And probably the more rural parts of this area. Salt Lake City would fare better than most similar-sized cities, but still wouldn’t do as well as the more rural parts of the region. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/85 "2016-05-12T21:00:25Z")
> [@drewder](#): > > My prediction is the inter-mountain (Mormon) west will survive the best. They’ve been preparing for this for the last 150 years and a large percentage of the population has a year or 2 of food, water, and other supplies. Many of those who have a “years supply of food” have hard red wheat\* sealed in 5 gallon plastic buckets. You have to grind it, and most of all- \*cook it. \* Good luck with that. - and jars of honey. Honey and wheat. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/86 "2016-05-12T21:01:54Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > Many homes in the Southern US would be uncomfortable at best in a summer without air conditioning. Older homes, like those built in the nineteenth century, were designed to allow air to circulate and cool the homes. Or people slept out on porches. But homes built more recently were designed to be cooled by air conditioning. So sleep outdoors, or be uncomfortable. > [@](#): > > And what are these Northern refugees going to do for work for eighteen months? Most of them have jobs up north and children in school. They’ll do whatever needs doing or not do much. The goal isn’t to keep business as usual going, it’s to prevent people from dying needlessly. And, as noted, the emigration is going to happen no matter what, because people aren’t going to stay and freeze, regardless of whether they have prospects in the warmer regions or not. So anyone trying to keep business or schools running in the North is going to be SOL. Once people can move back, then the state of business and schooling will resume. On the other hand, there’s going to be just as many teachers-per-student in the South after the emigration as before it, so I would expect schooling to continue. Computer typing classes might take a cutback, and teachers might have to do a lot more reading to the class, rather than giving them handouts, but that’s fine. > [@](#): > > Someone mentioned Katrina, and that’s a good example. Thousands of people relocated from New Orleans but that was only possible because most of the rest of the country was unaffected. Again, all that’s needed is that food continues to get distributed. If the government can accomplish that, everything else is a bonus. ---
**Author:** ![drewder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/57b2e6/32.png) [@drewder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewder)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/87 "2016-05-12T21:07:58Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Many of those who have a “years supply of food” have hard red wheat\* sealed in 5 gallon plastic buckets. You have to grind it, and most of all- \*cook it. \* Good luck with that. > > - and jars of honey. Honey and wheat. I know a lot of people with hand grinders for that very reason. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/88 "2016-05-12T21:12:24Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Again, all that’s needed is that food continues to get distributed. If the government can accomplish that, everything else is a bonus. Water too. People need water. And lots of your typical water service requires electricity to run. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/89 "2016-05-12T21:17:27Z")
> [@drewder](#): > > I know a lot of people with hand grinders for that very reason. What do you do with the flour? No power, how do you cook it? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/90 "2016-05-12T21:23:09Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > What do you do with the flour? I’d make sourdough bread. Water, salt, and flour (and time) are really all you need. Pour some honey on it 🙂 > [@DrDeth](#): > > No power, how do you cook it? Fire pit in the back yard? There’s probably a decent supply of propane / charcoal grills that could be improvised to cook food for a little while (days or weeks, until your fuel source ran out) at least in more rural / suburban areas. A few people have “[solar ovens](https://www.google.com/search?q=solar+oven&safe=active&espv=2&biw=982&bih=1670&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiu0eadu9XMAhUP82MKHTrHD5EQsAQIPg)” that would probably work ok if the weather was decent. I have a wood-burning stove (and some wood) 😃 It might last me 6 months if I _really_ stretched it and was careful about when I burned. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/91 "2016-05-12T21:26:14Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I’d make sourdough bread. Water, salt, and flour (and time) are really all you need. Pour some honey on it 🙂 > Fire pit in the back yard? There’s probably a decent supply of propane / charcoal grills that could be improvised to cook food for a little while (days or weeks, until your fuel source ran out) at least in more rural / suburban areas. A few people have “[solar ovens](https://www.google.com/search?q=solar+oven&safe=active&espv=2&biw=982&bih=1670&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiu0eadu9XMAhUP82MKHTrHD5EQsAQIPg)” that would probably work ok if the weather was decent. I have a wood-burning stove (and some wood) 😃 It might last me 6 months if I _really_ stretched it and was careful about when I burned. Charcoal and wood wont last a week in most areas- a month max. That’s my point. A years worth of wheat is useless. The honey is OK, I guess. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/92 "2016-05-12T21:32:00Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Charcoal and wood wont last a week in most areas- a month max. That’s my point. And I agree with that point. > [@DrDeth](#): > > A years worth of wheat is useless. Agreed, but I think you may have overestimated how many people have a year’s supply of wheat. Most of the Mormons I know (and I know a lot) don’t have a year or two’s supply of food in 5 gallon buckets of hard red wheat (though there are a few), but they probably have several months worth of canned goods. Some have freeze-dried food (seems to be the newest trend) or hundreds and hundreds of MREs. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/93 "2016-05-12T21:40:17Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Water too. People need water. And lots of your typical water service requires electricity to run. True, I didn’t consider that. I’m not sure whether the sorts of power needs for that would be attainable through basic power generators, or if something more massive is needed. I had thought that water movement was largely dealt with through gravity, as it wouldn’t be practical to push water through an entire city with a single motor? As a temporary measure, boiling and filtering water from lakes, ponds, fountains, pools, etc. might suffice for a little bit. Ideally, that would be enough to allow something to be set up to allow water to start pumping again. I’ll admit that I have no idea how practical that is. But it would be a fairly decisive point for the US’s ability to recoup. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/94 "2016-05-12T21:44:34Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > And I agree with that point. > Agreed, but I think you may have overestimated how many people have a year’s supply of wheat. Most of the Mormons I know (and I know a lot) don’t have a year or two’s supply of food in 5 gallon buckets of hard red wheat (though there are a few), but they probably have several months worth of canned goods. Some have freeze-dried food (seems to be the newest trend) or hundreds and hundreds of MREs. Maybe so. But that was a thing when my buddy worked as survival supply place. They had a special deal of so many buckets of red wheat and so much honey (honey prices were watched very carefully there, trust me) and sold as a “years supply of food”. As far as he knew, this was marketed to and sold to Mormons. Freeze dried seems to be the new trend in the survival magazines, but again- \*needs cooking. \* MRE’s are fine- they dont have to be cooked\*- but are a LOT more expensive. - they can be eaten cold (dont taste very good then) or get the water powered heaters. My survival suggestion to people was get the unleavened crackers sold below cost right before Passover\* and jars of peanut butter. Some cans of fruit and you’re good. Cheap, tasty- and boring as hell. Matzo- stays “good” for a really long time. Hardtack, for all intents & purposes. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/95 "2016-05-12T21:58:17Z")
I don’t know all the details of water systems, but to give you some sense: across the street from me, buried about 15 feet underground, is a massive 72" pressurized aqueduct that’s sort of a main backbone to the water supply on this side of the county. I’m not sure how big of a pump you need to move the volume of water it would take to require a 72" pipe, but I’d imagine it’s huge, and probably can’t be run by the sort of generator I could throw into the back of a pickup truck. Another reference point: the city of Flint, Michigan has been in the news lately for their inability to supply safe drinking water to their residents. According to [this page](https://www.cityofflint.com/public-works/utilitieswater/water-treatment-plant/), the city joined the [Karegnondi Water Authority](http://www.karegnondi.com/). They’ve got a [pipeline map](http://media.wix.com/ugd/60e74e_3a1b40a31a444f9ebd7aa084240225cf.pdf) (that’s currently under construction), showing what’s necessary to bring water from Lake Huron to the city of Flint. They’ve got pump stations every couple of miles, with diameters around 60". And that’s just to get the water to the treatment plant. I don’t know what sort of process it has to go through once it gets there, but I imagine at least some of it takes electricity (and chemicals, of which they have a finite supply). Then they’ve got to push the treated water out to the water mains running all over town. I imagine a good many more pumps are involved on that side of things. The natural gas suppliers and sewer companies are probably facing similar challenges. There just aren’t enough generators to go around. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/96 "2016-05-12T22:03:21Z")
I believe pretty much all freeze-dried food is freeze-dried already cooked. It doesn’t need to be cooked again, it just needs water added to it. However, a lot of the freeze-dried meals are intended to be eaten warm (like most of our meals), so they taste a lot better if you add _warm_ water to them, even though they’re perfectly safe and nutritious to eat at room temperature or cold. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/97 "2016-05-12T22:11:52Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > I had thought that water movement was largely dealt with through gravity, as it wouldn’t be practical to push water through an entire city with a single motor? I believe it is in a lot of places (think of all the [water towers](https://www.google.com/search?q=water+tower&safe=active&espv=2&biw=982&bih=1670&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjQ6dyPxtXMAhUT4WMKHVPuBU8Q_AUICCgD) you see around), but even there, they have electric pumps pushing water into the tower to keep it filled. When those pumps are not working, the residents have whatever water is in the tower, and once they’ve used that, it’s gone. [http://wonderopolis.org/wonder/how-do-water-towers-work](http://wonderopolis.org/wonder/how-do-water-towers-work) says, “… most [water towers] are built to hold approximately one day’s water supply.” ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/98 "2016-05-12T22:52:34Z")
> [@Tzigone](#): > > But in this case, the outage isn’t short term and the backup generators will eventually run out of fuel and leave us without cell or regular service. That’s one reason we looked into getting solar backup - well, for our household, obviously we aren’t going to run the cell tower system ourselves! It solves the fuel problem. You get a set of solar panels - we have a trio of them that one person can move/reposition if needed - and a deep cycle battery. It’s not going to run a household day and night but if you are careful about what you choose to power it’s enough to run our well pump (solves the water problem), a very small refrigerator, a few lights, recharge batteries for other people… Of course, there’s then the issue about security - we live too close to an urban area to really be safe. We’d probably head out to some friends we know and band together for mutual survival. > [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > So you’d stay and freeze, rather than go visit your relatives? > > Good for you. Good luck with that. Me, I’d go. I’m the most southern positioned of my relatives. I live just outside of Chicago. But, you know, people did live way up north and survive before electrical power and the internal combustion engine became ubiquitous. > [@DrDeth](#): > > What do you do with the flour? No power, how do you cook it? My solar panels could run a hotplate… pancakes, anyone? Dumplings? That, and I learned how to bake things in a campfire a long time ago. > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I believe pretty much all freeze-dried food is freeze-dried already cooked. It doesn’t need to be cooked again, it just needs water added to it. That was my experience back in the 1970’s when I used to backpack. Some things, like freeze-dried fruit, we’d even eat straight out of the bag. You have to be careful with that, though, because if you eat a lot and then drink water it will expand and give you a heck of a tummy ache. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/99 "2016-05-12T23:01:03Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > My solar panels could run a hotplate… pancakes, anyone? Dumplings? > > That, and I learned how to bake things in a campfire a long time ago. True, but few have solar like that. Wood will go very fast. We also forget about raging wildfires due to newbies cooking with fire and no way to put them out. No fuel for fire-trucks or choppers. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2016, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566/100 "2016-05-12T23:12:54Z")
This article [“US power grid could be knocked out by a handful of substation attacks, says report”](https://www.rt.com/usa/power-grid-knocked-out-substations-706/) from a couple years ago states that there are 55,000 substations in the USA. Too many for a terrorist attack to get them all. However: > [@](#): > > This study, though, found that disabling just nine of these substations could leave much of the country without power for weeks, or possibly even months. There are an estimated 30 “crucial” substations that rely on large power transformers to increase the electricity’s voltage, thereby giving it the capability to move long distances. They don’t give a list … I imagine Bonneville is one of them. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-the-us-survive-the-loss-of-the-power-grid-for-18-months/754566.md?page=6)