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Zog_10 you have an interesting user name. I’m curious what the origin of it is. And, are there really 9 other Zogs? 
I’ll trade you: my username is the title of a book of palindromes. **I Love Me, Vol. I ** is of course a palindrome itself.
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I don’t foresee anything happening in the future as far as I can see, but instead of a civil war where parts of the country want to secede why not a civil war like England’s or Spain’s. I think that it would be far more likely 90 years from now to have a situation where things have become far more polarized than before, where say a portion of the population are fundamentalists and want a theocracy and another large portion of the population want religion out of public life. Next thing you know, civil war.
That would still require each side having its own military force – and in modern American conditions, no mass-based militia could fight the U.S. armed forces; so the armed forces themselves would have to be politically divided, some units fighting for one side, some for the other. Unlikely scenario.
Hasn’t it happened in other countries where some units stayed with the government and others went with the insurgents?
IIRC, it happened in this country. A number of Confederate officers were US Army Officers before deserting to join the rebels, including many of the best ones.
If Roe v. Wade is overturned and it goes to a state-by-state political battle, the likelihood of violence over the issue rises enormously. Still, the chances that this could turn into anything like a civil war are extremely low.
If the Pubbies are found to have manipulated the electoral machinery repeatedly (bugging Deibold and other Rovian dirty tricks) in order to sustain majorities in Congress and a Pubbie presidency, the chances of an all-American insurgency could go right up, too. But that depends on them getting caught at it, and not gaining sufficient control over the media to effectively suppress news of such chicanery.
March 23th, 2020- AP - Tristan Llewellyn
After a long battle in both the House and the Senate, the Public Safety bill was passed today by a slim margin. Never before has one issue so polarized the political bodies of the US gov’t as the passage of the bill, which calls for the disarming and criminalization of firearms in the hands of civilians.
Pundits on both sides have called the passage of this bill the first shot in what may prove to be a changing point in the history of the nation.
Rhetoric has been heated on both sides, with the partisan factionalization of the various political parties reaching a high a new high.
The Governors of several states, including Montana, Wyoming and Texas, have stated that they will not ratify this law, and will bring suit in the Federal Supreme Court to overturn it…
April 17th, 2020- AP - Tristan Llewellyn
The Homeland Defense Department has begun the process of collecting firearms, setting up collections centers throughout the nation…
June 1st, 2020- AP - Tristan Llewellyn
Several regions of the states of Montana, including Cascade County, and Teton County, have been declared to be in violation of the Public Safety Bill, as local leaders have refused to co-operate with Federal authorities.
“They can have my gun when they pry it from my cold dead hands,” says an unnamed hunter in Great Falls, interviewed during an anti-government rally. “Our forefathers wanted it that way, and no way am I going to lay down and let that idiot in the White House take that right away from me.”
The director of the Homeland Defense Department has stated that the disarmament will continue, and no “unlawful” elements will stop the process.
Sept 6th, 2020- AP - Tristan Llewellyn
A National Guard unit has been arrested and charged with mutiny after failing to follow their orders to seize, by force, the farmhouse of one Arthur Andrews, 63, who had refused to turn over his extensive collection of weapons. Andrews, himself a military veteran, was unavailable for comment, though he did wave an American flag before he was tackled and then taken into a HumVee by military authorities.
October 3rd, 2020- AP - Tristan Llewellyn
Confusion reigns and communications have broken down after the Idaho National Guard unit attached to the Homeland Defense department opened fire today on federal authorities in the process of arresting those found to be in violation of the Public Disarmament Act. “The lawless rouges within the Idaho National Guard will be found, and they will be dealt with in the manner appropriate,” a White House spokesman said at an emergency new conference today…
You can see where this is going, I’m sure.
This conjecture includes a continuing and growing rift between right and left, and the failure of a middle ground party to establish itself. I could see it, unlikely though it may be today.
Sorry, no civil war over that either. Yeah a lot of pissed off people, but what democrat or blue in their right mind will go after Joe Republican their next door neighbor because of what a few assholes with ®’s behind their names did in Washington? It surely isn’t my fault that some democrats view Rove as evil incarnate. I fail to see how a blue democrat down the street could hold it against me anymore than I blame them for any shortcomings that I could blame on the dems.
I think the issue of the voter fraud coming to light would only result in violence if the release of the information didn’t result in a fast and severe ‘regime’ change, however you’d like to put it.
You know, people get pretty pissed when high profile officials break the law and then merely get scolded. I don’t know if it would result in Rep vs Dem neighborhood fights, but perhaps protests and riots that are of large enough scale that violence would result. I don’t think a Tiananmen Square event in America is impossible, if unlikely. And something like that could lead to some pretty radical times (as in scary).
Again, all unlikely, but impossible? Hardly.
But the question at hand is civil war, neighbor against neighbor, state against state, brother against brother, etc. A discovery of massive voter fraud would certainly piss alot of people off on BOTH sides of the spectrum and a lot of regime changes would need to be made quickly, however, the change must be done according to the constitution. Therefore keeping rule of law and order in place.
I have to think that most people, regardless of their “color” would demand that the tricksters step down immediately and that only in a left wing wet dream would violence erupt due to the actions of a few R’s thereby tarnishing the party for a long time if not forever.
Tristan’s chain of events are quite plausible however…
What worries me is the gradual balkanization of society due to the fragmentation of media. Back in the day, the left and right shared the same sources of information. We all watched the evening news, and read the same papers. We would differ in our interpretation of events, but we all started from the same factual base, and debate between both sides was carried out. Everyone was listening to everyone else.
This is not true so much any more. Now the Liberals listen to Air America and NPR, and read Daily KOS and Democratic underground, and get their ‘facts’ through the filter of partisans. The right in the meantime get their news from FOX and Free Republic and National Review, and their ‘facts’ are filtered by partisans on their side. And they rarely even debate each other any more. The lefties go over to Democratic Underground or lefty blogs and preach to the converted, and the righties head over the Free Republic and righty blogs and do the same.
This is polarizing the country more and more. We can’t even agree on basic facts any more, let alone the interpretation of them.
This won’t lead to civil war, but it could lead to increasing uncivility between citizens, and eventually to the kind of society where every little decision becomes a knock-down political fight. Fringes on both sides could certainly resort to violence.
True – officers, not units. The U.S. Army, as an organization, remained intact and loyal. The Confederate officers built their army out of the militias of seceding states, supplemented with new waves of volunteers. This was possible since the state militias, in those days, were almost equal to the Army in strength, and in military technology there was not much difference between Army-issue weapons and those available to ordinary citizens, or to state governments. I can’t see anything like that happening again in America – especially if we’re talking about a non-sectional civil war that breaks down along lines of culture, class, ethnicity or ideology. Any credible revolutionary army would have to be built around large disaffected units of the government army, and those units would have to bring significant parts of their war materiel with them to put up a fight. Again, unlikely scenario. Might happen in, say, a near-future Iraq, but not here, in any plausible future we could envision for the next few decades.
It’s been done. http://www.johnreilly.info/ttd.htm
The attack on the Bonus Army by MacArthur in 1924 comes to mind. Unlike the military riot at Kent State in 1970 in which four students were killed, the attack in Washington was cooly premeditated by the top military geniuses of the time, with Eisenhower bringing up the rear. Granted, the number killed in Washington and Kent cannot be compared to those murdered in Tiananmen, but Hoover likely didn’t order MacArthur to slaughter everyone in sight. However, I doubt MacArthur lacked the will to do so.
No occupant of the White House can afford to forget the protests, violent and otherwise, of the Vietnam War era, including those of the 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago, the Watts riots in 1965 and the 1999 anti-globalization protests in Seattle. During Vietnam, the U.S. probably was closer to insurrection than at any time since the civil war.
I don’t think Tristan’s “news stories” are all that far-fetched at all.
Yes . . . but remember, even then, we never really got close to insurrection or civil war. It was not a revolutionary situation, not in a political sense, even though a lot of people on the left and right thought it was. It just seemed that way because so many revolutionary social phenomena came to a head during the same period. And if America could not have a civil war under those conditions, then when?
War is the application of superior force to impose your will on others. Democracy is the application of superior numbers to impose your will on others, & it’s less expensive, less destructive. Americans see war as ineffective & lunatic in a democracy.
I don’t think a traditional civil war is even possible in this country. There is not enough cohesion between groups for a large scale civil war with clearly delineated sides to come out. However, I think that the average person’s idea of disenfranchisement is at a boiling point. I do think that there will be some sort of revolution, but the result would look more like Snow Crash than the Civil War. I personally know a lot of people who entertain the notion of picking up a gun. The reason most of them do not is because they are anti-oppression, and nothing is more oppressive than killing someone. However, with the unprecedented access to information and technology that we have, a very small force of elite terrorists could bring this country to it’s knees. Conversely what I see are factions consolidating power in the corporate sector. These forces will play against each other as time goes by. However, I think that people discontented with this society are much more numerous than you might believe, and our populace is very well armed. The average citizen in this country has access to chemical weapons. A Radio controlled Airplane kit can be turned into a UAV using a GPS system.
So while I don’t think that there will be a civil war with a clear delineation, I see a lot of mafia style organizational conflict in the future, both violent and non.
The most likely place to secede from the Union is New York City. Most people I discuss the idea with in New York don’t think it sounds that far fetched, though they are skeptical about the ability to do so. However, we’ll see what happens whether or not the rift between the UN and the Fed widens, because New York City will stay on the side of the UN I believe. A lot of New Yorkers see them as citizens of the World more than citizens of the USA.
Erek
I don’t think another civil war is beyond the realm of possibility, but unlike the first, I don’t think it would be issue-based, but event-based, with “fallout issues” flowing from the event being the kernels around which antipathy gels, rises to animosity, and finally to violence.
Take a big enough event, get the politicos mobilizing their base around the various “spin doctors,” and viola: A Bad Day In Bosnia, right on Main St., Yourtown.
shudder
Having read that in the past, I knew that it was possible to get thrown back at me. But I have stated in conversations for the last 10 years, before I even know the Turner Diaries existed, that what I described is a possibility (slim, though growing).
Note, I didn’t specifically state which side did what, and I certainly have no racial casting in my “news stories”.
Having grown up in Montana, I have always been amazed at how DIFFERENT the views on guns are. Coming to California, where I have had conversations where people actually say that there is no reason to own firearms, and nobody should hunt, took me by surprise.
I stand by my opinion, that short of abortion, no other subject is as galvanizing as guns/gun control.
[QUOTE=TristanHaving grown up in Montana, I have always been amazed at how DIFFERENT the views on guns are. Coming to California, where I have had conversations where people actually say that there is no reason to own firearms, and nobody should hunt, took me by surprise.[/QUOTE]
Just out of curiosity, what do Montanans believe about guns, beyond a general agreement that they should be allowed to own them? That is, are guns merely hunting weapons to them? Or do they think they need them for personal or home defense? (Is there a lot of crime in Montana?) Or do they [shudder] think they need guns to protect their “freedom” – and if so, from who?