Could there be another US civil war?

[JXJohns]

@BrainGlutton

!!! Are you serious? How many Americans today are farmers or ranchers, or even employed in agricultural work of any kind? Isn’t it less than 5 percent of the total workforce?

Let me add also that we are not just talking about farmers or veggie pickers. In my home state of Iowa. Many other industries are tied directly to the AG economy. The farmer works the land, but he buys considerable amounts of fuel from his local gas dealer, who employs several folks. That same farmer buys his seed from the local seed dealer which employs a few people to sack and deliver the seed, but on a bigger picture, companies like DuPont, and Monsanto develop the seed employing both white and blue color folks in everything from IT, Genetics, to labor. Don’t forget about John Deere, Ford Motor Company and others all have a BIG stake in farming and ranching. These companies all employ 1000’s that directly have a stake in farming.

Many of the small towns on the maps I asked you to look at are in existence because of the farming economy. They have the grain elevators for storage of the farm crop, the local tractor implements for buying and selling heavy equipment, and they are the local shops that have not been forced out yet by WalMart. All of which exist as a result of the 5% of the workforce involved in AG.

[GomiBoy]

@HPL

IIRC, it happened in this country. A number of Confederate officers were US Army Officers before deserting to join the rebels, including many of the best ones.

Like most of them… almost all of the Confedrate Officer corp graduated from West Point, just like most of the Union. It was State’s rights that divided the army, as people from Virginia went home to fight for Virginia…

[GomiBoy]

@GomiBoy

Like most of them… almost all of the Confedrate Officer corp graduated from West Point, just like most of the Union. It was State’s rights that divided the army, as people from Virginia went home to fight for Virginia…

Preview is good. Preview make poster not look stupid. **BrainGlutton ** answered this way better than I did.

Ugh…

[GomiBoy]

I did grow up in Montana, and JXJohns is right on about the general attitude, as well as strong feeling about gun ownership. I first hunted legally when I was 14, but I got my first rifle when I was 13 and used to go out with my dad, uncles, and grandfather since I was 12, and currently own three (back home, anyways, not here in London).

IMO, the main reason so many Montanans went from political apathy to Republican is what they saw as the Democratic government reaching into their daily lives more and more, especially during the Clinton years. And yes, a lot of that was down to controls put on gun ownership, but it was also the agricultural reforms and grazing rights JXJohns mentions, and tax increases as well. They started voting Republican to fight back against that, as Republicans (pre-Bush II, at least) used to be the party of small government and lower taxes and respect for farmers and ranchers.

You also might have heard of a group called The Freemen, who were so intent on protesting the government that they holed up on their ranch outside Jordan, MT, and threatened to shoot anybody who tried to come get them - their only real mistake was they started putting liens against their neighbor’s property or they would likely still be there today. They had a standoff with federal marshalls for 80 days. They were a small group, but their sentiments are widely held throughout the state and they have a surprising (to me) amount of support there. And googling for them turns up a whole bunch of (admittedly pretty frindge) web sites saying they should be freed. I’d be willing to bet a lot of those sites come from folks from MT, ID, WY, etc…

Bit more about the Freemen and about the Militia of Montana, another group of pro-government sweethearts…

[BrainGlutton]

@JXJohns

I’m guessing you are not a gun owner. With all of the legislation passed against gunowners since 1986 alone you would not think things were sewn up if you had a stake in the game.

Really, JXJohns, how many gun owners have been directly affected in any way by the Brady Bill, etc.?

[BrainGlutton]

@JXJohns

I don’t know if this is a serious atempt, but I guess it could be called secession.

For a list, w/ links, of (possibly) more serious American secessionist, seditionist and “sovereignty” movements, see here: Seditionist and Sovereignty Movements in the USA

Also, the American Secessionist Project: http://www.secessionist.us/

[BrainGlutton]

@JXJohns

Let me add also that we are not just talking about farmers or veggie pickers. In my home state of Iowa. Many other industries are tied directly to the AG economy. The farmer works the land, but he buys considerable amounts of fuel from his local gas dealer, who employs several folks. That same farmer buys his seed from the local seed dealer which employs a few people to sack and deliver the seed, but on a bigger picture, companies like DuPont, and Monsanto develop the seed employing both white and blue color folks in everything from IT, Genetics, to labor. Don’t forget about John Deere, Ford Motor Company and others all have a BIG stake in farming and ranching. These companies all employ 1000’s that directly have a stake in farming.

They have an economic stake in farming, yes. But how would that translate into a stake in secession or civil war based on the points of discontentment (some economic, some cultural) you have ascribed to the actual farmers and ranchers? How would such a conflict affect their economic interests?

[BrainGlutton]

@GomiBoy

IMO, the main reason so many Montanans went from political apathy to Republican is what they saw as the Democratic government reaching into their daily lives more and more, especially during the Clinton years. And yes, a lot of that was down to controls put on gun ownership, but it was also the agricultural reforms and grazing rights JXJohns mentions, and tax increases as well.

Tax increases? On farmers? During the Clinton years?

[JXJohns]

@BrainGlutton

Really, JXJohns, how many gun owners have been directly affected in any way by the Brady Bill, etc.?

I’d say this is the wrong thread for that discussion. But essentially anyone who bought a gun and had to go through the “Waiting period” was affected. Don;t forget about the MG ban in '86, the import ban in '89 the AW Ban in '94 as well. All attacks on gun owners rights, and all taken quite seriously by most gun owners.

[BrainGlutton]

@JXJohns

You need to look at a map of the US outside of Tampa. See all of that area that doesn’t have towns and cities and booming metropoli? Someone owns that land and they probably do something to make money off of it. Now look at a map of Montana. See the lack of almost ANY towns in proportion to the size of the state? Most of that land is farmed or ranched… That is a lot of land, and a lot of people to manage it. Before you post a cite refuting my claim, make sure it is on a state by state basis, not the country as a whole.

Remember, just because issues are not near and dear to you does not mean they are not important to someone else. In addition, the country, especially the Great Plains, is a very big place.

Of course most of the land in the U.S. is either wild or under cultivation/ranching. But when we’re talking about the chances of war (or even ordinary politics), what counts is people – potential soldiers (or voters). A military agrarian-based revolt in America would be crushed in short order. Any rational farmer or rancher should be able to see that. Those who don’t must think they’re still living in the days of William Jennings Bryan, when an agrarian-based political movement could conceivably command the numbers to take Washington.

[JXJohns]

@BrainGlutton

… when an agrarian-based political movement could conceivably command the numbers to take Washington.

I don’t know if their goal would be to take Washington, just keep what they have.

[BrainGlutton]

@JXJohns

I’d say this is the wrong thread for that discussion. But essentially anyone who bought a gun and had to go through the “Waiting period” was affected. Don;t forget about the MG ban in '86, the import ban in '89 the AW Ban in '94 as well. All attacks on gun owners rights, and all taken quite seriously by most gun owners.

Waiting period? Assault weapons ban? I can see how gun owners would experience such things as nuisances – but as an issue for revolt?! Or even “continued attack on what are perceived as basic civil rights spelled out in the constitution”?

[BrainGlutton]

@JXJohns

I don’t know if their goal would be to take Washington, just keep what they have.

An equally impossible goal to achieve by military means. Same reasons.

[JXJohns]

LEts get something straight. I don’t live in Montana, nor do I necessarily support the beliefs that some have out there. But to dismiss peoples ability to defend themselves is a dangerous proposition that assumes that the US Military would be willing to fire upon their own citizens. You cannot, with any degree of certainty, determine whether that would happen or not.

[JXJohns]

@BrainGlutton

Waiting period? Assault weapons ban? I can see how gun owners would experience such things as nuisances – but as an issue for revolt?! Or even “continued attack on what are perceived as basic civil rights spelled out in the constitution”?

Like I said, you don’t have a stake in the game or you would at least consider this legislation more than just nuisances. Wrong thread for this discussion however, nor do I really wish to continue the issue. Rest assured that many, MANY people vehomently disagre with your nuisance statement.

To many people these rounds of increased gun control are viewed as attacks on the Constitution itself, and not just a nuisance.

[mswas]

Am I the only one young enough to know that Hacker culture is largely made up of these “Seperatist anarchist weirdo” types? Certainly the lines of division would be extremely convoluted, too convoluted to have any clearly definable sides, a civil war isn’t likely, but an anarchistic breakdown of the system can very easily occur.

Think about the level of economic damage caused by crashing a couple planes into a building. Think about all the business halted by the “I Love You” worm. Do you not think that a weapons grade computer virus could reap a wide swath of damage?

As for American soldiers going against Americans, they don’t have the morale for that, the morale is low in Iraq, do you honestly think that Americans turned against Americans would stay loyal to the government? Certainly some of them would, but there would be defections who retain control of weapons. Think about the possibilities for foreign investment in a credible revolt against American Imperial power.

I wonder how much contact people in here have with the “fringe” that is dissatisfied with the government, which while a minority, isn’t a small one. There are people all over the spectrum that are pissed off about what’s going on. The current war on terror is an attempt to thwart what essentially is a globalized rebelling against American imperialism, I hardly think it would be impossible for American groups to join into that. The president himself has said, “You are either with us or with the terrorists”, and a lot of people ARE NOT with the president in a way that is much deeper than the arm chair politico version that we are engaging in here online. One can build a supercomputer out of discarded computer parts, we play with robotic air planes for fun during the day, and go home and play simulations where we can nail a hooker for health, shoot aliens or plan world conquest. One doesn’t need a wildly expensive intelligence agency to keep tabs on people, the information is freely available on the internet, complete with google’s satellite maps.

Well armed high tech fringe groups can make 5% of the US population seem like 14 million people, walking down the streets, stealing your wifi that’s ridiculously easy to break into, in order to broadcast transmissions anonymously, well armed because guns are one of the easiest black market items to aquire in the United States, right after Pot, Cocaine and Heroin, which of course the type of person who would wage war against the United States government can make a killing off of, financing any number of activities that they wish.

BrainGlutton: You need to drop your graphs and percentages once in a while and go travelling, the average person is generally pretty sociable, and hating the government isn’t merely a ‘fringe’ activity.

Remember the dramatic catalyzing event can be a government crackdown on the wrong “Fringe” group as well. Something that is common among “Fringe” elements that don’t trust the government is fear of a fascist regime taking power in the US.

This country isn’t United at all, and should probably be about 8 countries within a free-trade zone rather than a single nation, and many people are sick of living under a tyranny of special interest groups that have nothing to do with them.

Welcome to the age of corporatism, everything is for sale to anyone who can afford it.

Erek

[mswas]

I am always amazed by people who don’t understand the dislike of people with guns telling you that you can’t own one, especially when those in government are regularly overstepping their bounds.

Erek

[Kimstu]

@Sam Stone

What worries me is the gradual balkanization of society due to the fragmentation of media. Back in the day, the left and right shared the same sources of information. We all watched the evening news, and read the same papers. We would differ in our interpretation of events, but we all started from the same factual base, and debate between both sides was carried out. Everyone was listening to everyone else.

And then the conservatives complained that all those “same sources”—network news, the major “papers of record” like the New York Times and the Washington Post, the standard news weeklies like Time and Newsweek, NPR—were too liberal, so they needed to provide “balance” with consciously right-leaning outlets like the National Review, Fox News, and talk radio.

Actually, there used to be more media alternatives than there are these days, at least among traditional media. Major cities had more than one newspaper, smaller cities had more than one radio station, etc.: we didn’t have such a tight conglomeration of huge corporations processing the same product for so many people.

But you’re right that there used to be more of a consensus about the major national sources of news. However, that was then claimed to be biased against conservative interests. How are you going to “de-balkanize” the current media atmosphere without undoing the accomplishments that conservatives claimed were necessary for political health and fairness?

[MAGunter]

I think y’all underestimate the number of people that have the ‘state first, nation second’ mentality.

I know a great many Texans, myself included, that share that particular thought process. I could go into reasons if you would like, but I know that a great many people-especially in the South and other non-coastal or non-“major” areas (primarily not from NY, MA, CA, etc.) that feel the same.

I’m not saying it’s going to precipitate some form of civil war-I think religion or religious issues would be more likely causes-but I’m saying if it came down to it, I’d fight for Texas long before I’d fight for the US.

[Kimstu]

@mswas

I am always amazed by people who don’t understand the dislike of people with guns telling you that you can’t own one

Would somebody who understands this remark please parse it for me? I don’t mean that I don’t understand how the poster can hold the views represented here or anything like that—I mean I literally can’t figure out what the hell he’s trying to say. Thanks!