# Could Trump actually run and win in 2024?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [April 25, 2021, 9:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736 "2021-04-25T09:36:29Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 3
### Author:  [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/41 "2021-04-26T01:03:26Z")
> [@flurb](#):
>
> And they will hope (not without reason) that Biden will take the blame for “getting nothing done” and not “being bipartisan.”
One of the main “reasons” being that they & their media shills will be shouting that blame all day every day from the noisiest pulpits in the land.
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### Author:  [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/42 "2021-04-26T01:09:06Z")
And the usual crowd of Republican mice, on this board and throughout the country, will whimper “Why are you listening to them-_they_ don’t represent the Republican Party!”
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### Author:  [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/43 "2021-04-26T01:23:06Z")
> [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#):
>
> Hillary Clinton is highly unlikely to be the Democratic nominee, both Democrats and other Republicans running in the primaries won’t make the specific strategic mistakes they made in 2016
What specific “strategic mistakes” did they make in 2016? After all, Ms. Clinton won the popular vote, so I think whatever her strategy–other than “Let’s run as a Republican”–worked. It’s not the strategy that gave the election to 45; it’s the lousy system.
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### Author:  [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/44 "2021-04-26T01:25:02Z")
Man, just today I was thinking how nice it has been to NOT hear a single mention of our president tweeting!
I was also thinking how weird it is that so many folk speak so highly of Trump. What the hell has he been doing the past couple months? Is he fund raising? Golfing? Travelling?
Anyone have any reports of how the lardass is passing his days?
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### Author:  [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/45 "2021-04-26T03:02:18Z")
> [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#):
>
> though, because he wouldn’t be running as an incumbent, and he would have to win the primary first.
If Trump runs again, he will have no serious primary opposition. Zip. Zero. Nada. At most, there may be a token candidate ala Bill Weld who’s been out of office for decades. This is for two reasons:
- Any Republican who opposes Trump in the primary is effectively ending his or her career. The party will turn on him or her with a white-hot fury, and they will never again be able to run for office as a Republican (nor are Democrats likely to welcome a rejected Ted Cruz with open arms).
- Every Republican with Presidential ambitions will be falling all over themselves to kiss Trump’s ass in hopes of being his Vice-Presidential nominee. Pence is obviously done, and hopefuls like Cruz, Hawley and DeSantis are young enough that they can afford to wait four year to then run as Trump’s heir apparent.
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### Author:  [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/46 "2021-04-26T04:23:16Z")
> [@flurb](#):
>
> Every Republican with Presidential ambitions will be falling all over themselves to kiss Trump’s ass in hopes of being his Vice-Presidential nominee. Pence is obviously done, and hopefuls like Cruz, Hawley and DeSantis are young enough that they can afford to wait four year to then run as Trump’s heir apparent.
I don’t disagree with this analysis but after seeing what happened to Pence I don’t know why they would be. Just about every politician who put themselves into Trump’s orbit has ended their political career. Sessions and Pence are the obvious examples; I suppose Nikki Haley is the closest to Trump with a viable career.
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### Author:  [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/47 "2021-04-26T04:47:47Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> We cannot count on cholesterol to save us, because it appears to me that the man is immortal and cannot die.
An invincible bowel, too - he has apparently consumed an almost limitless number of large steaks without getting colon cancer.
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### Author:  [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/48 "2021-04-26T04:58:26Z")
Wow, Trump is unbeatable and possibly immortal? This is starting to sound like Reddit’s the\_donald in here!
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### Author:  [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/49 "2021-04-26T05:07:38Z")
> [@Leaper](#):
>
> Wow, Trump is unbeatable and possibly immortal?
Hardly that (well, it better not be that - an immortal Trump is the stuff of nightmares), but the OP was “could Trump actually run and win in 2024?” The answer to that is yes.
Is Trump LIKELY to run and win in 2024 is an entirely different question. I doubt if even Trump knows whether Trump will run in 2024. As noted a probable lack of passion for the grind and potential health issues (barring that immortality clause) are going to be at war with his love of applause and ego-stroking. If he does run he is not a shoo-in despite the doom-crying of a few. He is however a very dangerous threat to win and that’s bad enough.
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### Author:  [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/50 "2021-04-26T05:25:01Z")
In the unlikely event that he’s still alive in 2024, he COULD run. Win? I sure hope not.
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### Author:  [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 8:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/51 "2021-04-26T08:16:03Z")
Will Trump run in 2024? Who knows? I lean towards no because of his general laziness, possible health problems and his fear of losing yet again.
If Trump runs is he likely to get the GOP nomination? Perhaps things could change but at this point he looks like a very strong front-runner.
If Trump wins the nomination, is he likely to win the general? He will have a half-decent shot but not more. Say a 25% chance which of course is still plenty scary.
On the plus side for the Democrats they will probably have a good economy over the next 1-2 years and at least an OK economy in 2024. Trump has a lot of baggage and may accumulate more in the form of legal problems.
On the downside, crime and illegal immigration look like a serious vulnerability for the Democrats. Also their candidate choice doesn’t inspire much confidence. It will probably either be an 82-year old Biden or Kamala Harris who strikes me as a distinctly mediocre politician.
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### Author:  [@GeneralTang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GeneralTang)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/52 "2021-04-26T12:28:58Z")
While another term with Trump would be devastating, I think there are things in the Republican party far worse than Trump (Mitch McConnell, Ted Cruise…)
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### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/53 "2021-04-26T14:31:47Z")
I mean, we’re all literate enough in life and probability to understand that there is a _chance_ Trump could run and win in 2024, I do consider it unlikely. Trump doesn’t only drive Republican votes, he puts Democratic voters into hyperdrive and 2024 is too soon to mount a comeback tour among a populace who, hopefully, have forgotten why you sucked in the first place. Way too soon, given 2020.
If Trump were 10, 20 years younger, I would bet “2032” as the most likely time to start a comeback, but that’s way too late for someone his age. If he IS going to run again, 2024 will have to be it.
But, I don’t know. It’s easy to make Hitler analogies and all that, but the Beer Hall Putsch didn’t kill 500,000 Germans and cost 20,000,000 of them their jobs (scale this to population, y’all do the math. 😛 ). He could win, but I consider it highly unlikely. He’s a known quantity as President and, frankly, that also works against him (see above re: 2020).
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### Author:  [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/54 "2021-04-26T14:35:07Z")
I’m thinking that, before then, he is going to be indicted and on trial for any number of the different crimes he has committed. There are some heavy duty investigations going on right now.
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### Author:  [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/55 "2021-04-26T14:41:49Z")
IMHO, the probability of inflicting any (legal or financial) harm on him through these issues is low.
OTOH, these issues may very well get him in front of the cameras and the microphones, again, where he can rail, wail, inveigh, whine, and bitch endlessly about what a victim he is.
This plays well with his knuckle-dragging base.
When you take a shot at the king … you’d better not miss.
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### Author:  [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/56 "2021-04-26T14:57:43Z")
Nobody drives the current Republican base like DJT and he loves the idea of being the one to whom everyone else has to show deference. He’s absolutely hooked on that power. (Governing for the country’s betterment is something else altogether)
The GOP’s problem is that nobody also drives Democratic turnout like DJT. And national demographics will have slipped several more points away from him by 2024, to the point where the gap may be too great for red state legislatures to overcome with their planned ratfuckery.
So, yeah, I think he can and will run. I don’t think he can win. But the danger to the nation is so fucking great that it will be terrifying to have him as his party’s candidate, even if he only has a 15% chance of winning.
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### Author:  [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/57 "2021-04-26T15:10:56Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#):
>
> He’s absolutely hooked on that power.
I agree with this. Like others I don’t think he expected to win in 2016 but he’s had four years of being one of the most powerful men in the world with Air Force One at his disposal. World leaders had to return his calls. Soldiers saluted every time he passed. You know he eats that up. I think he wants to run. On the other hand he hasn’t said anything definitive (right?) which I would have expected by now. So what do I know?
Now that I think of it, I’m surprised he hasn’t had any rallies. Has he made many public appearences?
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### Author:  [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/58 "2021-04-26T15:19:18Z")
Trump will hint at running for the next three years so he can continue to fleece his supporters. All he knows is a con-job. I expect his fleecing to ramp up over the next few years, he will steal what he can, say the system is rigged and not run for office.
I hope.
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### Author:  [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/59 "2021-04-26T15:20:59Z")
> [@Deeg](#):
>
> Now that I think of it, I’m surprised he hasn’t had any rallies. Has he made many public appearences?
I think he’s been keeping a relatively low profile until the January 6th stuff blows over. He’s had two major kiss the ring ceremonies with CPAC and another on I don’t remember the name of at Mar lago. He’s also had a [ton of one on one time](https://abcnews.go.com/US/republicans-flock-mar-lago-trump-fundraising-photo-ops/story?id=76477186) with his current mouthpieces. Keep in mind this is only 4 months in. At this point he is mainly consolidating power and ensuring he doesn’t go to jail.
Of course, Trump will run again assuming his health stays ok. Biden barely beat him and that was mostly running on Obama’s record. This time out Biden will have to stand on his own two feet and those feet have already lost him ~3% favorability from a poll I saw this weekend on meet the press. That is enough to flip the election and we’ve got 3 more years to keep Biden’s mistakes fresh and for people to forget the horror of Trump. If the Republicans take the house or senate in '22 it’ll be a miracle if Biden wins a second term against Trump.
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### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [April 26, 2021, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/60 "2021-04-26T15:24:34Z")
> [@Oredigger77](#):
>
> Of course, Trump will run again assuming his health stays ok. Biden barely beat him and that was mostly running on Obama’s record. This time out Biden will have to stand on his own two feet and those feet have already lost him ~3% favorability from a poll I saw this weekend on meet the press
Lol. Sorry, but this is fear mongering. And Meet the Press has sucked the second Chuck Todd took the helm. I mean, _TRUMP HAS A RECORD AS PRESIDENT TOO_, so, yeah, let’s compare job performance.
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