# Could Trump actually run and win in 2024? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 25, 2021, 9:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736 "2021-04-25T09:36:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Saintly\_Loser](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saintly_loser/32/4045_2.png) [@Saintly\_Loser](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saintly_Loser)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2021, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/121 "2021-05-10T16:34:51Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > I suppose Nikki Haley is the closest to Trump with a viable career. Kristi Noem seems to be in the running to assume the Trump mantle, should Trump not run again. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2021, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/122 "2021-05-10T16:45:03Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > I don’t have a vested interest in DC Report, but keep in mind as I’ve already said, the author is not claiming anything happened. She is claiming there are results that are anomalous when you consider other data, and they should be investigated. In an era of fake news I really think it’s unfair for a reputable outlet to have its articles misrepresented and then attacked for that false representation–DC Report has not said the Kentucky Senate election was stolen, full stop. She may not come out and say that the election was stolen, but she sure as heck implies that it was in a Just Asking Questions sort of way. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2021, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/123 "2021-05-10T18:51:18Z")
@Martin_Hyde: Good points overall. > [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > The TLDR is contrasting who someone is registered with versus vote outcomes probably isn’t a good way to detect potential fraud, since many voters register with a party when they first register to vote, and never update their registration for the rest of their lives–but that doesn’t mean they never alter their voting preferences. Another issue, at least in states with closed primaries, is tactical registration. Where people deliberately register in their disfavored party specifically to screw with the primary. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2021, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/124 "2021-05-11T03:33:37Z")
**LSLGuy** - I’m not looking for an argument but I’ve never seen any research showing this is actually a thing. I’ve heard a bunch of anecdotal stuff but not anything showing this actually happens in large enough numbers to have an impact on primary outcomes. Any chance you could suggest where one can find evidence of this being a widespread activity? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2021, 11:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/125 "2021-05-11T11:46:10Z")
That’s a darn good question. I may be guilty of repeating an “everyone knows” FOAF tale that’s much larger in the telling than in the doing. I personally have lived in both open and closed primary states. In closed states I’ve always registered as my real party and voted my real preference. In the open states once or twice when my party’s primary was a shoo-in I voted for the dork in the other side’s primary. To no apparent effect beyond bragging rights at the bar. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2021, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/126 "2021-05-11T16:32:07Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Where people deliberately register in their disfavored party specifically to screw with the primary. > [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I’ve heard a bunch of anecdotal stuff but not anything showing this actually happens in large enough numbers to have an impact on primary outcomes. I’ve done this here in Kansas forever. Thus far, my vote has had no noticeable impact on the outcome of any election. That, however, will not stop me from continuing this practice. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2021, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/127 "2021-05-11T16:55:32Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > She may not come out and say that the election was stolen, but she sure as heck implies that it was in a Just Asking Questions sort of way. Something Tucker Carlson has perfected as an art. “I’m not saying Biden fucks dead boys in the ass but wouldn’t it be awful if he is? And how about ‘Doctor’ Jill Biden” [air quotes] standing by and letting it happen without saying a word to anyone in public or private? Doesn’t that – in a way – make her worse?" ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2021, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/128 "2021-05-21T14:16:23Z")
If Trump doesn’t run: > **[Florida Gov. DeSantis hints at future plans: 'I have only begun to fight' |...](https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/20/politics/ron-desantis-pittsburgh/index.html)** > > The applause for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis from a ballroom full of Republican activists was loud and long -- and it happened before the Florida governor even took the stage. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2021, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/129 "2021-05-21T14:31:02Z")
It’s an interesting (and stupid) line they have to walk. Trumpists can’t come out and say that they are running for president until Trump indicates what he’s doing. And of course Trump will probably change his mind multiple times and release ambiguous statements. Hopefully this will impede their presidential runs. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2021, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/130 "2021-05-21T21:08:39Z")
Trump will run unless at the last moment he finds a way to sell his support to the highest bidder. For a truly ginourmous amount of money coming from gosh knows which fount of evil. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2021, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/131 "2021-05-21T22:52:32Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Trump will run unless at the last moment he finds a way to sell his support to the highest bidder. I can’t see this happening. In order to sell his supporters, he’d have to go out and campaign for the person he sold them to. Just annoucing he’s now supporting so-and-so wouldn’t cut it; his supporters would stay home in droves. But I can’t see Trump ever truly campaigning for someone else. He always makes things about him no matter if he’s supposed to be campaigning for another person. ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2021, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/132 "2021-05-21T23:07:47Z")
I’d bet Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton (along with about 15 other Republican 2024 presidential hopefuls) are rooting for Letitia James, Cy Vance and Fani Willis to do their dirty work for them. Any one of the Republicans would be happy to stab Trump in the back as long as their fingerprints aren’t on the knife. If Trump gets taken out of the presidential race by some kind of swampy, liberal prosecutor, so much the better. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2021, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/133 "2021-05-22T03:39:50Z")
> [@SunUp](#): > > Any one of the Republicans would be happy to stab Trump in the back as long as their fingerprints aren’t on the knife. When you strike a king, kill him. That goes for personality cult leaders as well, so long as their supply of sycophants holds out. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2021, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/134 "2021-05-22T04:15:57Z")
All Biden’s really got to do is not be WORSE than Trump in the eyes of the swing voters. Which may or may not be difficult; Biden’s swing to the progressive side of things is a bit more extreme than a lot of people expected, I suspect. Which may end up hurting the Democrats by setting up a situation of “Is Trump really worse than Biden, now that we’ve seen Biden’s true colors?” type situation. For some swing voters, it may well be worse, and for others, it’s not a strike against him, because they were voting against Trump and his cult of personality specifically, not conservatism in general, and they’re not going to vote for Trump regardless of how far left the Democratic party swings. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2021, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/135 "2021-05-22T05:00:00Z")
Right I mean, I was a lifelong Republican–and am still a conservative, who left the party in 2016 specifically because of Trump. Both parties have long been big tent, coalition parties. Since my very first election decades ago, there’s been elements of the Republican party I’ve not been thrilled with. But I had usually been okay with the party’s primary power brokers and most of its higher tier elected officials, who were often a few steps removed from the more dangerous and idiotic parts of the Republican base. I started to see this rapidly change actually during the 90s, but even then it was too a degree that I didn’t think the party itself was in peril. When the party rejected W. Bush’s fairly reasonable immigration package, to me that was a watershed where I started to feel like the elites were losing control of the base, and by the 2010 emergence of the Tea Party I actively viewed the party as being in a state of war with an extremely dangerous faction. I naively assumed with the victory of Romney in the 2012 nomination battle that some degree of sane Republicanism and the brand of conservatism I support was ultimately going to prevail. But I ended up being quite wrong about that, the period 2012-2020 has largely seen the complete and probably permanent death of my wing of the party, with almost the complete gutting of high level Republicans on this side of things. With Trump, who was clearly an anti-democratic figure in 2016 long before the Capitol Insurrection/Coup attempt, I viewed that as a red line. To me political positions stop mattering if one candidate rejects democracy as a concept, because in democracy we preserve our right to express our differences of opinion about policies, by voting against the concept of democracy we imperil the ability to do that, meaning it is the most important position of all, one that is historically baked in to every candidate of both parties. But now a huge percentage of Republican politicians and candidates have openly rejected democracy. I didn’t spend much time considering whether I was going to vote for Trump or not in 2016–he was anti-democratic, so I was never going to vote for him, regardless of any policy positions. Same in 2020. Same in 2024 if he runs again there is no one the Democrats could nominate whom I would not vote for–and there are figures in the Democratic party that are anathema to virtually every major policy preference I have. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2021, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/136 "2021-05-22T05:06:47Z")
I disagree. I think they believe the best outcome is for Trump to stay out but endorse one of them, so they will continue to kiss his ass and hint that they’ll run if Trump doesn’t. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2021, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/137 "2021-05-22T13:08:38Z")
> [@SunUp](#): > > Any one of the Republicans would be happy to stab Trump in the back as long as their fingerprints aren’t on the knife. If Trump gets taken out of the presidential race by some kind of swampy, liberal prosecutor, so much the better. Trump being prosecuted would be a disaster for other potential Republican presidential candidates. It would give him an enormous stage on which to strut and rage against his being politically persecuted by the liberal deep state. He would raise an ungodly amount of money – money that might have gone to other candidates. And even if convicted, he could run from prison ala Eugene Debs. In fact he’d be MORE likely to run for President, if only so he could pardon himself (the Constitutionality of that maneuver aside). And every other potential Republican contender would have to support him in all of it. They would have to agree that the case is a liberal persecution, that his conviction is illegitimate, and that he should be President again. For Republicans, there’s simply no turning the corner from Trump. No matter what he does, no matter the consequences, they cannot say “enough.” His supporters literally ransacked the Capitol and almost every Republican legislator now holds him blameless. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2021, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/138 "2021-05-22T14:48:25Z")
@flurb nailed it. The rest of the R party will first begin to back gingerly away from Trump only when he’s safely dead. And only if he hasn’t already anointed a successor that his base is willing to latch onto. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2021, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/139 "2021-05-22T15:05:59Z")
> [@bump](#): > > All Biden’s really got to do is not be WORSE than Trump in the eyes of the swing voters. Which may or may not be difficult; Biden’s swing to the progressive side of things is a bit more extreme than a lot of people expected, I suspect. Which may end up hurting the Democrats by setting up a situation of “Is Trump really worse than Biden, now that we’ve seen Biden’s true colors?” type situation. I disagree. Biden needs to also worry about liberals staying home. Liberals are great at turning out in droves to vote against a Republican, but not so good at turning out to help support a moderate Democrat that’s running for re-election. 1994 and 2010 are great examples. 2012 also showed that, with Obama underperforming compared to his 2008 victory. If I had to guess, I’d say that the odds of Biden beating his own popular vote total are less than 1%, regardless of who he’s running against. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2021, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736/140 "2021-05-22T15:12:46Z")
It is interesting that even as the general public moves on and away from Trump, the GOP is clinging ever more tightly to him. > **[Trump is sliding toward online irrelevance. His new blog isn’t helping.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/05/21/trump-online-traffic-plunge/)** > > The former president’s aides said his new online empire would “redefine the game.” But his heavily promoted blog is seeing fewer visitors than the pet-adoption service Petfinder and the recipe site Delish. > [@](#): > > On the Internet, former president Donald Trump is sliding toward something he has fought his entire life: irrelevance. > > Online talk about him has plunged to a five-year low. He’s banned or ignored on pretty much every major social media venue. In the last week, [Trump’s website](https://www.donaldjtrump.com/) — including his [new blog](https://www.donaldjtrump.com/desk/), fundraising page and online storefront — attracted fewer estimated visitors than the pet-adoption service [Petfinder](https://www.petfinder.com/) and the recipe site [Delish](https://www.delish.com/). > [@](#): > > But Trump’s continued influence isn’t translating into a bigger online audience, according to a Washington Post review of data from four online-analytics firms. Social engagement around Trump — a measure of likes, reactions, comments or shares on content about him across Facebook, Twitter, Reddit and Pinterest — has nosedived 95 percent since January, to its lowest level since 2016. > [@](#): > > Trump’s biggest attempt yet to recapture America’s attention has severely underwhelmed the Internet — and even his own advisers. His “[From the Desk of Donald Trump](https://www.donaldjtrump.com/desk/)” blog, which he and his team have promoted heavily in TV interviews and social media posts, has in the last week been shared to Facebook on average fewer than 2,000 times a day — a staggering drop from last year, when his Facebook page fielded tens of millions of comments, shares and other interactions every week, > [@](#): > > “He’s whistling in the wind,” said Megan Squire, a computer science professor at Elon University who studies right-wing online organizing and reviewed data about Trump’s audience. “People just aren’t following him to his little desk platform, and we can see that in the numbers. The difference is ridiculous. He doesn’t have that same ability anymore to constantly put his content in people’s faces the way he did before.” > [@](#): > > Since the blog’s launch, however, online data shows relatively few people have paid attention. [Trump’s entire website](https://www.donaldjtrump.com/), including his blog, saw roughly 4 million visits in the week ending May 18 from desktop and mobile devices in the United States — about 60 percent of the week’s traffic for the right-wing websites [Newsmax](https://www.newsmax.com/) and [the Gateway Pundit](https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/), according to an analysis by the online-analytics firm SimilarWeb, which tracks and estimates traffic and referrals for millions of websites. > > In the same week, the Trump website’s traffic was beaten by not just Delish and Petfinder but the website builder [Squarespace](https://www.squarespace.com/), the news magazine [the Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/) and the food site [Eat This Not That](https://www.eatthis.com/), according to SimilarWeb. (Facebook and Twitter had 896 million and 329 million visits in the same time period, respectively.) > > The data doesn’t break out visits just to Trump’s blog, but a separate analysis shows how little those blog posts are getting passed around the Web. > > Each blog post includes a Facebook and Twitter share button, allowing fans to spread Trump’s words on networks where they would otherwise be banned. But not many fans appear to be doing so: Social engagement across the Web with Trump’s blog, including reactions and shares on Facebook and Twitter, plummeted from 159,000 interactions on its first day to fewer than 30,000 the second and haven’t crossed 15,000 interactions any day since, BuzzSumo data show. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/could-trump-actually-run-and-win-in-2024/940736.md?page=8)