Could Trump actually run and win in 2024?

Trump will run unless at the last moment he finds a way to sell his support to the highest bidder. For a truly ginourmous amount of money coming from gosh knows which fount of evil.

I can’t see this happening. In order to sell his supporters, he’d have to go out and campaign for the person he sold them to. Just annoucing he’s now supporting so-and-so wouldn’t cut it; his supporters would stay home in droves. But I can’t see Trump ever truly campaigning for someone else. He always makes things about him no matter if he’s supposed to be campaigning for another person.

I’d bet Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton (along with about 15 other Republican 2024 presidential hopefuls) are rooting for Letitia James, Cy Vance and Fani Willis to do their dirty work for them.

Any one of the Republicans would be happy to stab Trump in the back as long as their fingerprints aren’t on the knife. If Trump gets taken out of the presidential race by some kind of swampy, liberal prosecutor, so much the better.

When you strike a king, kill him.

That goes for personality cult leaders as well, so long as their supply of sycophants holds out.

All Biden’s really got to do is not be WORSE than Trump in the eyes of the swing voters. Which may or may not be difficult; Biden’s swing to the progressive side of things is a bit more extreme than a lot of people expected, I suspect. Which may end up hurting the Democrats by setting up a situation of “Is Trump really worse than Biden, now that we’ve seen Biden’s true colors?” type situation.

For some swing voters, it may well be worse, and for others, it’s not a strike against him, because they were voting against Trump and his cult of personality specifically, not conservatism in general, and they’re not going to vote for Trump regardless of how far left the Democratic party swings.

Right I mean, I was a lifelong Republican–and am still a conservative, who left the party in 2016 specifically because of Trump. Both parties have long been big tent, coalition parties. Since my very first election decades ago, there’s been elements of the Republican party I’ve not been thrilled with. But I had usually been okay with the party’s primary power brokers and most of its higher tier elected officials, who were often a few steps removed from the more dangerous and idiotic parts of the Republican base.

I started to see this rapidly change actually during the 90s, but even then it was too a degree that I didn’t think the party itself was in peril. When the party rejected W. Bush’s fairly reasonable immigration package, to me that was a watershed where I started to feel like the elites were losing control of the base, and by the 2010 emergence of the Tea Party I actively viewed the party as being in a state of war with an extremely dangerous faction. I naively assumed with the victory of Romney in the 2012 nomination battle that some degree of sane Republicanism and the brand of conservatism I support was ultimately going to prevail. But I ended up being quite wrong about that, the period 2012-2020 has largely seen the complete and probably permanent death of my wing of the party, with almost the complete gutting of high level Republicans on this side of things.

With Trump, who was clearly an anti-democratic figure in 2016 long before the Capitol Insurrection/Coup attempt, I viewed that as a red line. To me political positions stop mattering if one candidate rejects democracy as a concept, because in democracy we preserve our right to express our differences of opinion about policies, by voting against the concept of democracy we imperil the ability to do that, meaning it is the most important position of all, one that is historically baked in to every candidate of both parties. But now a huge percentage of Republican politicians and candidates have openly rejected democracy.

I didn’t spend much time considering whether I was going to vote for Trump or not in 2016–he was anti-democratic, so I was never going to vote for him, regardless of any policy positions. Same in 2020. Same in 2024 if he runs again there is no one the Democrats could nominate whom I would not vote for–and there are figures in the Democratic party that are anathema to virtually every major policy preference I have.

I disagree. I think they believe the best outcome is for Trump to stay out but endorse one of them, so they will continue to kiss his ass and hint that they’ll run if Trump doesn’t.

Trump being prosecuted would be a disaster for other potential Republican presidential candidates. It would give him an enormous stage on which to strut and rage against his being politically persecuted by the liberal deep state. He would raise an ungodly amount of money – money that might have gone to other candidates. And even if convicted, he could run from prison ala Eugene Debs. In fact he’d be MORE likely to run for President, if only so he could pardon himself (the Constitutionality of that maneuver aside).

And every other potential Republican contender would have to support him in all of it. They would have to agree that the case is a liberal persecution, that his conviction is illegitimate, and that he should be President again. For Republicans, there’s simply no turning the corner from Trump. No matter what he does, no matter the consequences, they cannot say “enough.” His supporters literally ransacked the Capitol and almost every Republican legislator now holds him blameless.

@flurb nailed it. The rest of the R party will first begin to back gingerly away from Trump only when he’s safely dead. And only if he hasn’t already anointed a successor that his base is willing to latch onto.

I disagree. Biden needs to also worry about liberals staying home. Liberals are great at turning out in droves to vote against a Republican, but not so good at turning out to help support a moderate Democrat that’s running for re-election. 1994 and 2010 are great examples. 2012 also showed that, with Obama underperforming compared to his 2008 victory. If I had to guess, I’d say that the odds of Biden beating his own popular vote total are less than 1%, regardless of who he’s running against.

It is interesting that even as the general public moves on and away from Trump, the GOP is clinging ever more tightly to him.

I’d be paying more attention to Ron Desantis.

Thanks for that link, SnowBo. But heartwarming as it is, I don’t think it means he’s any less of a threat for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination… or to American democracy itself.

Sure, that would be their ideal outcome. But that’s taking a remarkably passive stance for some very ambitious politicians. Ted Cruz doesn’t want the prime of his political life to be spent watching Donald Trump suck all the air out of the room in three consecutive electoral cycles. Hawley, Rubio, Cotton, Desantis, Noem, Haley, Ducey - they all want the clown show to stop before 2024.

Trump’s stage has shrunk remarkably in the last few months as @Snowboarder_Bo posted. The other Republican candidates would make the persecution of Trump a talking point of their own. The pols I mentioned would be falling all over themselves to say that their first act as President after taking the oath of office, even before their inaugural speech, will be to sign a comprehensive pardon for one Mr. Donald J. Trump “to put the long national nightmare of Democrat overreach away once and for all, and heal the wounds of this land.”

How well did that work out for President Debs?

If another candidate becomes president and signs his pardon, no Constitutional issues to worry about.

You’re welcome.

“Heartwarming”?

:thinking:

I said “interesting”.

:smiley:

Hell no; don’t relax just yet.

Seems awfully counterproductive; they’re still voting against a Republican, just not one that’s already in office.

Which won’t help if he gets charged by the state of New York.

He throws his own supporters under the bus once he feels their usefulness is ended; is he really likely to support someone else and trust that they won’t do the same to him, or is he likely to try to run no matter what because he can only trust himself?

You know what’s going to change everything? The child tax credit, especially if it’s extended through 2025. That’s a shit ton of money, especially for people with multiple kids, and instead of a big check to blow on April, it’s going to be a regular payment. People thought somehow a billionaire president would make their lives better. It didn’t. The child tax credits will. A ton of the kids lifted out of poverty will be the children of Trump supporters. And the tax credit is deeply, deeply associated with Biden.

One of Republicans’ biggest fears is that a liberal policy will succeed and help people.