Could Trump happen in Canada?

Politics & Elections
41

See edited post above (now shows both pictures). Is that other graph the one you want?

Right-click on the picture (or whatever is the equivalent on your device; on my MacBook it’s Control-Click on the picture) to open the context menu. One item on the menu should be “View Image” or “Open Image in a new Tab” or something similar. Click on that. If that succeeds in opening up the image in a window or tab all by itself, then copy the link from the address bar into your post on a line by itself.

ETA: Note, this doesn’t necessarily work on all images in all web sites. Also, you can probably clean up the link by deleting the ? and everything after it.

42

hmm. I’m using a Chromebook. I can select the chart in the article, but I don’t see anything that can be used to create a link.

43

Not familiar with Chromebook. Maybe another Doper can help. Do you have a way to open a context menu?

44

Now there you have me - I don’t know what a context menu is.

45

In a Windows system, you can point at almost anything you see and right-click on it to open a menu of specific things you can do with the thing you pointed at. It’s called a “context menu” because it has different things on it depending on what you pointed at. Some (most?) other operating systems have that or some equivalent way to open a context menu.

Once you “select” the picture, what things can you do with it?

(Everybody else: Sorry for this hijack, but I hope it’s being helpful to somebody.)

46

copy, paste, bookmark. I don’t see anything about creating a link.

But, this is the SDMB techno-peasant speaking, so it could be staring me in the face and I just don’t see it.

And yes, sorry to other posters for the sidebar discussion.

47

@Northern_Piper –
I found this page that describes a couple of ways:

48

I wouldn’t attach much credence to a single number when looking at the stock market, and similarly there can be problems when applying math in this way to something as complex as social stability.

It does not take a genius to note: race relations, the number of natural disasters causing extensive damage, the most divisive president in a century, an unprecedented medical crisis, the gutting of major national institutions, criticism of allies and international stabilizers and fora, economic brinksmanship, unanticipated use of technology and the lack of discussion (and intolerance) among people who hold opposing views have all greatly destabilized American society. You do not need a number to know this is so. 40% of Americans “hate” those from the alternate political party. That’s 2 in 5, of course.

Canada does not have big divisions in the media and the political parties are much more similar than different. Dangers come from both American and foreign influence, home-grown intolerance and a failure to meaningfully address a number of social problems. Canadians hate bragging and a Trump persona wouldn’t be electable here at this time. We are not immune to natural disaster, medical crisis, misinformation or economic insecurity. But love is stronger than hate. We have a moral and a legal duty of care for our neighbours. Our Canadian Gini numbers are better than many, our social hierarchy less rigid, educational opportunities more broadly distributed.

49

This is one of the key points in responding to economic inequality: how much social mobility is there? Education is a big factor in enabling generational social mobility.

I’ve seen studies in the past that found that both the US and the UK have much more rigid social mobility than the Scandanavians, Australia, NZ and Canada. That educational opportuinty in those countries in turn helps to counter-balance economic inequalities

50

Fait! amazing! thanks, Senegoid!

Today I learnt …

51

For the sake of completeness, social problems Canada does not always address well IMHO include: systemic racism, local corruption, the influence of organized crime in well-known sectors, legal and prison reform, an accountable Senate, consumer protection in some sectors, cyber protection and reforms including privacy, anti democratic political practices, media consolidation and informal lobbying.

52

To add to the list: (mostly) unrestricted interprovincial trade should have been accomplished decades ago.

53

True, but look how different we are politically from the US:

– Not just two parties to choose from. We have five (Liberal, Conservative, NDP, BQ, Green), plus a whole lot of other parties that are always also-rans (Marxist-Leninist, Christian Heritage, and others). This means that it is a lot harder to split us two ways, as in the US.

– We have a parliamentary system, where the government always needs the confidence of Parliament. Yes, the Government may have an advantage in Parliament as a whole, but if it cannot command the confidence of the majority of parties in the House, it’s pretty much gone, and we have another election.

– Our Head of State is not our Head of Government. We don’t elect our Head of State, thus she is apolitical, but she’s got some pretty powerful powers. Which she will only exercise in certain, constitutionally-defined parameters, which have never come up in our history. Let’s just say that if the governing party claimed foul in an election, and appealed the matter to the Supreme Court of Canada, not only would the Supreme Court say, “Yeah, no, we’re not hearing this one,” but the Queen would say, “I’m not touching this one. The Canadian people have spoken with their votes. It’s their Parliament, elected by their votes. Let the Canadians figure it out. They’re capable of doing so.”

I think we’re doing pretty well, politically. Oh, I may disagree with our choice of government and Prime Minister, from time to time; but that’s my right, as a Canadian. But unlike our friends in the US, I’ve never felt that I must stand for one party (and everything it stands for) or the other party (and all it stands for). In Canada, we have a variety of parties and platforms, a healthy political discourse, and a number of political views from which to select on voting day.

54

Hitler won power through elections in multi-party parliamentary system. Never say never.

55

I agree Canada does most things well. The things it could do better get little attention. No doubt compared to many countries Canada excels. What confuses me is addressing most of the above items would be wildly politically popular, so the inaction is unpragmatic.

56

When the government decides to do something, it happens. When Trudeau (the elder) decided Canadians should have universal medicare, a bill was drafted and approved by parliament and it was done. Anything corresponding to a blue-dog Democrat doesn’t exist. A parliamentarian voting against his party on a bill like that is out of the party–and eventually out of parliament.

Although I assume there are lobbyists or equivalent, they really have no power. Money isn’t nearly as important since elections are more about parties than candidates. Although we do not, in principle, vote for Prime Minister, in practice that is what we do by choosing a party.

57

I think the OP question has two different questions:

  1. Could someone like Trump take over a party and become Prime Minister in Canada on such short notice?

  2. Could someone like Trump harness strong authoritarian and anti-democratic support?

On the first question, I think the answer is “No”. Someone couldn’t go from “no political experience” to PM in less than two years. Our party structure is much stronger than in the US, where increasingly it seems to me that parties are just vehicles for politicians to take over to get elected. We’ve only had one PM who hadn’t been in the Commons prior to being elected leader. That was Brian Mulroney, but he had extensive political experience before being elected - as the consummate backroom boy who was plugged into the party and had built all the alliances that got him to the leadership.

Plus, in addition to the party structure, someone with leadership aspirations at the federal level has to be bilingual - and that takes years of planning and hard work, other than the few who are raised bilingually. That’s what torpedoed Kevin O’Leary’s attempt at winning the Conservative leadership back in 2016-17, when he tried to be the Canadian Trump.

It’s the second question that is more worrisome. Yes, any society is vulnerable to authoritarianism and a break-down in democracy. If the question is whether a competent authoritarian leader could emerge in Canada, then yes, that could happen here. Canada has no special immunity. But that’s when issues like economic and racial equality, social safety nets, and commitment to democracy come into play. Shirer made the comment that the Weimar Republic was doomed from the start, because the political elites were not committed to democracy and were prepared to manipulate the system for power, at the expense of democracy and constitutionalism.

So far, our political culture in Canada hasn’t had the break-downs in commitment to democracy. But there’s no doubt that breakdown is occurring in other countries around the world, and I’m afraid, to some extent, in our closest and most influential neighbour. That is a very worrisome trend.

That’s why I’ve been following the US elections so closely, because the US really is at a cross-roads, in my opinion. Trump is a symptom, not the disease. It will take hard work by the supporters of democracy and constitutionalism to reduce populist authoritarianism. The election of Biden is crucial to start that, but would just be the beginning of the repair job.

Fingers crossed! I’m rooting for you!

58

I see that this is based on work by Peter Turchin, also known for his theory of the cycles governing the growth and decline of civilizations. Turchin has been claiming for some time, for example in his 2017 book Ages of Discord, that indicators show the US would be likely to fall into a period of division and violence around 2020. I haven’t read the book, but here’s a review by Scott Alexander. Alexander thinks Turchin’s data is quite compelling, but he’s not quite sure if Turchin is cherry-picking indicators that fit his thesis or not.

59

So three years ago, he foresaw that the US would fall into a period of division and violence? Very impressive pontificating there.

60

Now this is something I’d like to hear your opinion on, @Northern_Piper. I’m of the mind that bilingualism is fundamentally incompatible with Canadian multiculturalism, and that for this reason bilingualism is likely to disappear or become irrelevant in Canada in the next few decades. It’s already been under attack by the right, and will increasingly be under attack by the left. I can definitely foresee a Canadian federal leader who speaks no French, and for whom this might actually be part of their populist appeal. Do you think what I’m saying is possible, or do you disagree with my interpretation?