# Countdown to the 11/3/2015 Debt Ceiling Breach **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 25, 2015, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674 "2015-10-25T00:06:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/21 "2015-10-26T13:37:28Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > That may be true in general, but in this specific instance conflating the two seems reasonable. It’s the debt ceiling issue that will lead to the shutdown and not some other cause. If failure to raise the debt ceiling were guaranteed to lead to nothing worse than a government shutdown, that would be a fair statement. But who’s saying that’s true, or even likely? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/22 "2015-10-26T13:39:19Z")
It won’t come to it. Ryan (unless Boehner’s still around) and McConnell will this weekend get calls from their corporate masters to knock this shit off and pass a clean debt ceiling raise. It will be done and once again the TeaPartiers will swear that next year they’re really gonna kick that football and that their leadership won’t pull it away at the last second again. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/23 "2015-10-26T14:26:19Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > It won’t come to it. Ryan (unless Boehner’s still around) and McConnell will this weekend get calls from their corporate masters to knock this shit off and pass a clean debt ceiling raise. It will be done and once again the TeaPartiers will swear that next year they’re really gonna kick that football and that their leadership won’t pull it away at the last second again. The question is, does either Boehner or Ryan command 30 GOP votes on this issue? They will need to get votes from either (a) GOP Congresscritters who voted against the debt ceiling hike the last time it came up, or (b) the GOPers who got elected to the House for the first time in 2014. From the link in the OP: > [@](#): > > Only 28 House Republicans voted with virtually every Democrat last year to boost the debt ceiling; 19 of those lawmakers remain in Congress. Because of GOP electoral gains, Boehner would have to come up with a dozen or more additional Republicans to pass a “clean” debt limit measure with nearly all of the chamber’s Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/24 "2015-10-26T14:29:47Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > The question is, does either Boehner or Ryan command 30 GOP votes on this issue? They will need to get votes from either (a) GOP Congresscritters who voted against the debt ceiling hike the last time it came up, or (b) the GOPers who got elected to the House for the first time in 2014. > > From the link in the OP: I think they will because they have to. Just ignore those in the “Freedom Caucus”, and find 30 guys in safe seats that will vote for it. Of course doing so invites a primary challenge, but at some point they have to grow a spine and stand up to the nuts. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/25 "2015-10-26T14:57:27Z")
Well, one thing for sure, they better hope there’s no game 6 of the World Series. If there is they may be playing to an empty house. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/26 "2015-10-26T15:00:03Z")
One more thing, only 28 Republicans voted for it last time because that was all they needed. If they actually needed more, they could have twisted a few arms to get them. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/27 "2015-10-26T15:10:13Z")
I think the debt ceiling will pass fairly cleanly. With all the chaos over the speakership, I think that even the conservative caucus realizes that Ryan needs some time to settle into the office and too much rocking the boat in such a short time could lead to it capsizing. Further its just another month before they get a second shot at it when the budget comes due. So I think they will wait till then to have their temper tantrum. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/28 "2015-10-26T15:16:51Z")
Yeah, when the Republicans are getting flak from every which way for choosing that RINO squish, Paul Ryan, for Speaker, it’ll be easy to find a bunch of them to justify the anger by hiking the debt ceiling. Not a problem at all. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/29 "2015-10-26T15:36:41Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > That may be true in general, but in this specific instance conflating the two seems reasonable. It’s the debt ceiling issue that will lead to the shutdown and not some other cause. Fair point. I think he’s conflating “shutdown over the lack of passed new FY budget,” and “shutdown forced by the failure to pass an debt ceiling increase.” You’re absolutely right that “shutdown” is common to both scenarios. I think the latter’s effects are fairly imagined to be more severe, however. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/30 "2015-10-26T15:48:19Z")
Oh I agree. The effects of a debt ceiling shutdown are unpredictable in the extreme. Best guess is that if it’s short the disruption would be minimal. But a longer one would be trouble. Alternately the administration ignores it and waits for the court challenge to knock the debt ceiling legislation over once and for all. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/31 "2015-10-26T15:51:26Z")
> [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](#): > > I would be very interested to see the debt limit challenged in court - if anyone would have the standing to do it, which is a challenge. It doesn’t seem like according to the 14th Amendment that Congress can not pay for spending it authorized otherwise. > [@Chronos](#): > > I still maintain that the debt ceiling doesn’t exist. Congress sets the spending level, and Congress sets the tax policies that determine revenue. If the revenue is less than the spending, then there is a debt: That’s just simple mathematics. For Congress to try to legislate otherwise is as silly as trying to legislate the value of pi (much sillier, actually, since even politicians should be able to understand the math involved). The issue is that the powers to tax, to borrow, and spend, are all different constitutional powers entrusted to Congress. If Congress passes spending bills in excess of revenues, the Executive Branch doesn’t get to say, “Hey, Congress, your math doesn’t add up, so we’re just going to raise taxes on our own initiative until things balance.” Similarly, the Executive Branch can’t just go and issue more debt because Congress passed those spending bills. If one party of the Legislative Branch wants to drive the nation into a fiscal tree to prove that it isn’t chicken, the Constitution actually protects their prerogative to do so. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/32 "2015-10-26T16:02:42Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Oh I agree. The effects of a debt ceiling shutdown are unpredictable in the extreme. Best guess is that if it’s short the disruption would be minimal. But a longer one would be trouble. Who cares about the “debt ceiling shutdown”? The shutdown part\* isn’t the problem\*. It’s the business about _not issuing new debt_. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/33 "2015-10-26T16:26:38Z")
An [update from Steve Benen](http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/gop-creates-mess-it-doesnt-know-how-clean): > [@](#): > > Republican leaders know they’ll have to do the right thing fairly soon – sometime over the next eight days – but they have no idea how. > > House Republicans thought they had a plan. The strategy called for passing a right-wing plan, called the “Terms of Credit Act,” on Friday, tying the debt-limit increase to a series of conservative goodies that GOP lawmakers couldn’t get through actual legislating. > > That plan, however, was scrapped late last week when House Republicans decided it wasn’t good enough. Some GOP members wanted it to go further; some didn’t like the fact that the bill was bypassing the committee process; while others didn’t see the point in wasting time on a bill that would die in the Senate soon after. > > With Republican leaders once again discovering that their own members don’t like their own party’s bill, House Speaker John Boehner and his team have no choice but to move to their backup plan. Except, at this point, no one knows what that looks like. This morning, Ed Kilgore called them “The Party That Couldn’t Kabuki Straight.” Can’t improve on that. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/34 "2015-10-26T18:03:25Z")
[http://thehill.com/policy/finance/258091-white-house-gop-near-two-year-budget-deal](http://thehill.com/policy/finance/258091-white-house-gop-near-two-year-budget-deal) “Senior White House officials and congressional leaders are nearing a deal to raise the debt limit and set the federal budget for the next two years, say sources familiar with the talks.” Now, the opera ain’t over until there are four more GOP leadership changes, but it seems like the adults in the room are behaving like adults. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/35 "2015-10-26T18:26:59Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > The issue is that the powers to tax, to borrow, and spend, are all different constitutional powers entrusted to Congress. > > If Congress passes spending bills in excess of revenues, the Executive Branch doesn’t get to say, “Hey, Congress, your math doesn’t add up, so we’re just going to raise taxes on our own initiative until things balance.” Similarly, the Executive Branch can’t just go and issue more debt because Congress passed those spending bills. The Executive also can’t simply stop spending the money Congress has allocated. But one of those three things has to happen. Which one would pass judicial muster is an open question. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/36 "2015-10-26T18:29:08Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Alternately the administration ignores it and waits for the court challenge to knock the debt ceiling legislation over once and for all. I’m not entirely sanguine that a court challenge would have the result you predict. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/37 "2015-10-26T18:50:22Z")
[Via TPM](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/white-house-congress-budget-debt-ceiling): > [@](#): > > The New York Times also has reported on the deal discussions and said “officials briefed on the negotiations said the emerging accord would call for cuts in spending on Medicare and Social Security disability benefits.” Not exactly a _clean_ debt ceiling extension. And even if this cuts _spending_ without cutting _benefits_, I remember how well that worked out for Dems the last time we did that, back in 2010. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/38 "2015-10-26T19:05:51Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I still maintain that the debt ceiling doesn’t exist. Congress sets the spending level, and Congress sets the tax policies that determine revenue. If the revenue is less than the spending, then there is a debt: That’s just simple mathematics. For Congress to try to legislate otherwise is as silly as trying to legislate the value of pi (much sillier, actually, since even politicians should be able to understand the math involved). > [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Oh I agree. The effects of a debt ceiling shutdown are unpredictable in the extreme. Best guess is that if it’s short the disruption would be minimal. But a longer one would be trouble. > > Alternately the administration ignores it and waits for the court challenge to knock the debt ceiling legislation over once and for all. Why does this keep coming up? Sans debt ceiling legislation then we go back to the old system: Congress has to _specifically approve all debt issuance_, the debt ceiling is **an expansion of executive power** , because it allows “restricted free issuance of debt, subject to a pre-set cap.” If it went away then the President couldn’t issue a single cent of new debt without specific legislation from Congress for each series of bond issue. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/39 "2015-10-26T19:20:12Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > The Executive also can’t simply stop spending the money Congress has allocated. But one of those three things has to happen. Which one would pass judicial muster is an open question. It very likely isn’t even a constitutional issue. Most budget bills read something like: “The following sums are appropriated from any funds in the Treasury, which are not otherwise appropriated…” If there’s no funds in the Treasury because the revenues have run dry, then most spending laws would not seem to require that the Executive produce blood from a stone. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674/40 "2015-10-26T19:55:45Z")
Quick question on the issue of the debt ceiling. I know it has to do with how much money the US can borrow, but hypothetically, if they don’t raise it, what specific entity is prevented from borrowing? What would happen if, due to his interpretation of the Constitution, Obama just tells whatever department is responsible for borrowing to just go ahead and ignore the ceiling and borrow anyway? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/countdown-to-the-11-3-2015-debt-ceiling-breach/735674.md?page=3)