# Counting Cards **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [July 27, 2002, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075 "2002-07-27T04:39:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Cubsfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f4b2a3/32.png) [@Cubsfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cubsfan)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2002, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/41 "2002-09-30T13:53:24Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by saoirse \* > \*\*I am not ANAL \*\* You are not ANAL? Huh? šŸ˜‰ ---
**Author:** ![j\_kat\_251](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/71c47a/32.png) [@j\_kat\_251](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/j_kat_251)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2002, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/42 "2002-09-30T14:16:43Z")
Like an ATM machine I guess. ---
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2002, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/43 "2002-09-30T15:01:27Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by j\_kat\_251 \* > \*\*Like an ATM machine I guess. \*\* Huh? Whatā€™s like an ATM machine? ---
**Author:** ![Anamorphic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/anamorphic/32/3057_2.png) [@Anamorphic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anamorphic)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2002, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/44 "2002-09-30T15:45:08Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by voltaire \* > **The only thing I donā€™t really get is how the ongoing count can tell you whether the deck is in your favor or not. How can the deck be in your favor? Even if the deck is loaded with nothing but 10ā€™s and Aces, the dealer is drawing from the same deck as you are. They are just as likely to benefit from the plethora of 10ā€™s and Aces. Or arenā€™t they?** Yes, the dealer IS just as likely to benefit on the initial two dealt two cards as the player is. There are a few factors that make it in the players advantage, though: a) the player can choose to stand on any two cards when he knows thereā€™s an extremely likely chance of busting; the dealer cannot. This of course is true even to a non-counting player at any point, but becomes all the more important with a high count, and therefore a higher chance of busting. b) The player gets paid 3-2 for blackjacks, which are more likely in a deck with a high count. If the house gets blackjack, they only get your bet, of course. c) High counts give the counter opportunity to take advantage of splits and double-downs, in more situations then they might in a deck with a low count. The house of course doesnā€™t get to do this. As an example, if the count gets sufficiently high enough, a player might split tens against certain dealer cards. This particular play might raise eyebrows and draw heat, but there are other changes to basic strategy as well that wouldnā€™t. > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by voltaire \* > **Iā€™ve always wondered what the houseā€™s advantages are in BJ. Is it just that the players stand a chance of busting before the dealer? Is that it and nothing else?** Mainly, yes. But donā€™t underestimate thisā€¦ this is a HUGE advantage. ---
**Author:** ![Anamorphic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/anamorphic/32/3057_2.png) [@Anamorphic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anamorphic)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2002, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/45 "2002-09-30T16:39:11Z")
Upon thinking it over, maybe calling it a ā€œHUGEā€ advantage is overstating it. But it is those few percentage points that this brings to the house that give it its edge. ---
**Author:** ![aahala](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a88e4f/32.png) [@aahala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aahala)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2002, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/46 "2002-09-30T16:59:46Z")
I believe the original, mathematically sound system to beat the casino in blackjack was ā€œBeat the Dealerā€ which was printed in the 1960s. It was based upon card counting but the exact system is no longer of use because it worked and the casinos changed the rules. Contrary to a statement earlier made, in a perfectly ā€œfairā€ game, the party that begins with the greater bankroll stands a disproportional chance of ruining the other. If I have $1 for every $10 you have, in a coin flip, my chances of ultimate ruin arenā€™t around 90% but much greater. ---
**Author:** ![aahala](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a88e4f/32.png) [@aahala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aahala)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2002, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/47 "2002-09-30T17:00:15Z")
I believe the original, mathematically sound system to beat the casino in blackjack was ā€œBeat the Dealerā€ which was printed in the 1960s. It was based upon card counting but the exact system is no longer of use because it worked and the casinos changed the rules. Contrary to a statement earlier made, in a perfectly ā€œfairā€ game, the party that begins with the greater bankroll stands a disproportional chance of ruining the other. If I have $1 for every $10 you have, in a coin flip, my chances of ultimate ruin arenā€™t around 90% but quite a bit closer to 1. ---
**Author:** ![Beastal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Beastal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beastal)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2002, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/48 "2002-09-30T17:08:12Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by voltaire \* > \*\* > > Huh? Whatā€™s like an ATM machine? \*\* Saying ā€˜I am ANALā€™. šŸ˜‰ ---
**Author:** ![Beastal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Beastal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beastal)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2002, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/49 "2002-09-30T17:15:08Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Sam Stone \* > \*\* > Something that interests me is whether or not a human can train himself to do the same calculations, albeit with a much, much lower edge. I think itā€™s possible, but it would be a ton of work. Iā€™ve done some experiments to see how accurately I could judge the the time interval between revolutions, and I think I could get close enough. But thatā€™s a far cry from being able to do that, calculate the velocity of the ball, and learn to judge things like wheel deceleration. Theoretically, itā€™s possible. But it may be beyond the reach of the unaided human. I think the jury is still out on that, though. \*\* Wow, thatā€™s an interesting hypothesis you are putting forth there, **Sam Stone**. I have read up on the computer aided systems used to beat roulette, but it never occured to me that a human could be capable of performing much more simplified equations. As you said, removing a mere 3 numbers from contention would be enough to shift the advantage to the player. Has anyone ever done some in depth research on this that you are aware of? ---
**Author:** ![Bongmaster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Bongmaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bongmaster)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2002, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/50 "2002-10-01T20:05:16Z")
This may sound silly to the more experienced card counters out there, but couldnā€™t the casino simply use a different deck every time they deal a hand to eliminate the card counting advantage? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2002, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/51 "2002-10-01T21:52:56Z")
If they wanted to, the casino could use a hundred-deck shoe, and shuffle it after every hand. There are a lot of things that they could do which would make counting completely impossible. But they donā€™t want to, for a few reasons. First, they like for people to believe that they can beat the house. Of course, most folks canā€™t, but a great many think that they can. Theyā€™re the ones who go to the casinos often, and end up spending a lot of money. Second, most of the measures which could be used to defeat counting slow down the game considerably. If you had to shuffle a few thousand cards after every hand, you might only get in a dozen hands a day. Although the house would have better chances for those hands, with counters out of the picture, they still wouldnā€™t make much money. Obviously, thereā€™s a tradeoff here, and the casinos know just exactly how much protection to put in place to maximize their profits. ---
**Author:** ![PhilAlex](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/839c29/32.png) [@PhilAlex](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhilAlex)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2002, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/52 "2002-10-01T22:08:51Z")
Itā€™s been tried, with ā€œAutomatic Shuffling Machinesā€. Play drops drastically. See, thatā€™s a problem the casino has. IF they make the game TRULY unbeatable, no one will play! If they shuffle all the time, they will negate counting (And Shuffle tracking). Andā€¦ Yes. If you could eliminate 3-4 numbers from the wheel, and assure they would NEVER come up, well, youā€™d have an advantage. BTW: The biggest advantage isnā€™t the House Edge, itā€™s casual gamblers overbetting their bankrolls. But, time spent shuffling canā€™t win you any money. So, they shuffle and change the rules enough so that only super countersā€¦ Like Tim Hyland and his team, can win. ---
**Author:** ![ElJeffe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/958977/32.png) [@ElJeffe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElJeffe)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2002, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/53 "2002-10-01T23:31:50Z")
Speaking of House odds, does anybody know what the actual odds are in BJ, assuming the player plays precisely according to the odds all the time? Iā€™d read somewhere (long ago) that the odds are actually very slightly in favor of the player if he plays perfectly (without counting), and that the casino makes its money off the fact that most people _donā€™t_ play the odds, they play off their hunches. This sounds moderately plausible, at least, but Iā€™m not sure. Jeff ---
**Author:** ![ScoobyTX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ec9cab/32.png) [@ScoobyTX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ScoobyTX)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2002, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/54 "2002-10-02T00:32:45Z")
Odds depend on the rules. There are calculators on several websites that compute the house advantage (or disadvantage) based on factors such as: # of decks, if the dealer stays or hits a soft 17 (A-6, A-A-5, etc.), early, late or no surrender, etc. All assume perfect basic strategy play and some of the calculators take into account counting strategies. I havenā€™t seen one that adjusts for errors (how could it?), and with more complicated counting strategies errors are common. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2002, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/55 "2002-10-02T01:57:53Z")
The average blackjack game in the casino has a house advantage of anywhere between .3 and .9%, depending on the rules and number of decks. Thatā€™s assuming perfect basic strategy play, no card counting. Occasionally youā€™ll find a single deck game with great rules where the player has the advantage with just basic strategy, but itā€™s not very common any more. ---
**Author:** ![ScoobyTX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ec9cab/32.png) [@ScoobyTX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ScoobyTX)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2002, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/56 "2002-10-02T02:29:55Z")
> [@](#): > > by **Sam Stone** > Occasionally youā€™ll find a single deck game with great rules where the player has the advantage with just basic strategy, but itā€™s not very common any more. If you do find a game like this, let us know where it is :). Last time I played in a single deck game, only about 40% of the deck was dealt out, so the table I was at only went two rounds between shuffles. I didnā€™t even try to count, because it would be a waste of time. I still got shown the door (the first and only time that has happened). I can only assume it was because I was sober (it was only about 10am), playing good basic strategy for the table minimum. The other two at the table were blind drunk and betting wildly. I must have been slowing them down too much. ---
**Author:** ![ricksummon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ricksummon/32/3333_2.png) [@ricksummon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ricksummon)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2002, 6:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/57 "2002-10-02T06:25:04Z")
In a real casino, itā€™s obviously difficult to do all these card counting calculations in your head. But what about online casinos? What could possibly stop someone from running a program on their computer that counts every single card played with perfect precision? ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2002, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/58 "2002-10-02T11:31:13Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by voltaire \* > \*\*Ok, me again: > > Iā€™ve always wondered what the houseā€™s advantages are in BJ. Is it just that the players stand a chance of busting before the dealer? Is that it and nothing else? > > Other than that, it seems to me the player has the rest of the advantages. > > The way I see it: > The player has more freedom as opposed to the dealer, but if the player so chooses he could play by the exact same rules as the dealer. Typically, thatā€™s ā€˜stayā€™ on all 17ā€™s or higher, ā€˜hitā€™ on anything lower. Assuming the player uses their greater freedom wisely, they may have a small advantage there. > \*\* Isnā€™t it typical for dealers to win on pushes when the value of the cards is 19, 20, or 21? Thatā€™s where I thought the small statistical house advantage came from. ---
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2002, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/59 "2002-10-02T11:43:26Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by SenorBeef \* > \*\* > > Isnā€™t it typical for dealers to win on pushes when the value of the cards is 19, 20, or 21? > > Thatā€™s where I thought the small statistical house advantage came from. \*\* Thatā€™s not typical as far as I know. Have you played somewhere that they do that? ---
**Author:** ![Anamorphic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/anamorphic/32/3057_2.png) [@Anamorphic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anamorphic)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2002, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075/60 "2002-10-02T16:31:15Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by ricksummon \* > \*\*In a real casino, itā€™s obviously difficult to do all these card counting calculations in your head. But what about online casinos? What could possibly stop someone from running a program on their computer that counts every single card played with perfect precision? \*\* Online casinos use the equivalent of a continuious shuffling machine ā€“ every round is dealt from a fresh ā€˜deck of cardsā€™. > [@](#): > > _Originally posted by SenorBeef_ > \*\*Isnā€™t it typical for dealers to win on pushes when the value of the cards is 19, 20, or 21? > > Thatā€™s where I thought the small statistical house advantage came from. \*\* Nope. In ā€œDouble Exposureā€ Blackjack, a variant youā€™ll find at a lot of casinos, all pushes go to the dealer. But in regular blackjack, all pushes are pushes. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/counting-cards/121075.md?page=4)