# COVID case progressions in real time **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 19, 2020, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092 "2020-04-19T00:54:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Inigo\_Montoya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inigo_montoya/32/124_2.png) [@Inigo\_Montoya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inigo_Montoya)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2020, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/21 "2020-04-21T15:39:23Z")
Ain’t no kinda doctor. My pessimism (for her) considers the smoking, her propensity for turning run of the mill colds into pneumonia in the past, and the relative severity of the pneumonia she’s currently dealing with. I’m not confident enough in my outlook to start a betting pool or anything, just expecting the worst and hoping for the best. But all that is down the road. I’ll try to return to keeping things factual and limit speculation. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2020, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/22 "2020-04-21T16:26:48Z")
Coughing blood does sound like she might have some permanent damage. Best wishes with that, though. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/23 "2020-04-22T00:04:07Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > There is actually quite a bit on the internet about long-term damage. Here’s one [article](https://www.sciencealert.com/even-those-who-recover-from-corona-can-be-left-gasping-for-breath-afterwards). Google “covid permanent lung damage” for more. I know some here just hate when some of us make comparisons to influenza but here I go again … It is not yet known how many with what sort of severity will have what sort of lasting damage from COVID-19. What is known that of those who have had ARDS from influenza very typically have long lasting lung function impacts which often improved months later. For example [with H1N1](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3129942/): > [@](#): > > Pulmonary function test results assessed two months after admission to the intensive care unit showed reduced forced vital capacity in all patients and low diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide in two patients. At six months, pulmonary function test results were available for three patients. Two patients continued to have a restrictive pattern, and none of the patients presented with abnormal diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide. All of them had a diffuse ground-glass pattern on high-resolution computed tomography that improved after six months. Even without ARDS, having been sick enough with influenza to be [in the ICU](http://rc.rcjournal.com/content/61/5/689) is associated with risk for some longer term adverse outcomes. > [@](#): > > Interestingly, from hospital discharge up to 2 y after, ARDS survivors can present 3 distinct evolving patterns for SF-36 domains: (1) improvements in physical, social functioning, and vitality domains during the first year with no additional improvement at 2 y; (2) small changes in emotional role, pain, and general health domains; and (3) a slight improvement in mental status, with a subsequent return to hospital discharge level at 2 y.30 At 5 y after discharge from ICU, ARDS survivors have impairment in all SF-36 health dimensions, with reductions of 25% in physical function and physical role function, 17.5% in general health, and a smaller but statistically significant decrease in psychosocial functioning compared with the general population.13 Similarly, at 5 y, Herridge et al38 reported that even relatively young subjects with few coexisting illnesses who survived ARDS had a persistently reduced physical HRQOL in terms of SF-36 score, although those who were younger than 52 y showed a significant improvement in the physical component score from discharge to 5 y, when compared with subjects older than 52 y. > > To clarify the specific contribution of ARDS to long-term outcomes, several studies have compared HRQOL in ARDS survivors versus ICU survivors without ARDS, without finding any differences in HRQOL beyond 6 months after discharge.43–45 However, we know that there is a correlation between pulmonary dysfunction and long-term HRQOL, as indicated in several reports. The article does not specify much about the specific COVID-19 patients’ hospital courses. I think it is a safe guess that they were not individuals whose course were the same as someone managed at home. It would be a shock to find that sicker COVID-19 patients did not have lasting damage risk of the same sort as sicker influenza patients. Maybe it will turn out to be more, maybe less. It is not known and _there is no a priori reason to believe one the other or neither._ So far what is known about the impacts after COVID-19 is consistent with its being the same as for influenza. And yes our op being worried, hell being really scared, is extremely rational, given the risk factors he describes. Far from out of the woods and getting worse again in the next few days would not be an unusual pattern to be on the look out for. Any backsliding at that point and call the doctor RIGHT AWAY. But based on what is currently known a _full recovery_ from any specific severity of illness is just as _realistic to hope for_ if COVID-19 is the cause than if influenza is. Which means it is _a very realistic hope_, maybe even an expectation. ---
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/24 "2020-04-22T02:33:49Z")
> [@ethelbert](#): > > [This article](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage) in the NY Times suggests that testing with a pulse oximeter is the most useful way to check the progression of the disease. You likely don’t have one at home, but might be able to check at a clinic or pharmacy. I came here to post a link to this article as well. It is excellent. The doctor who wrote it was just on MSNBC this evening (with Chris Hayes). It was quite interesting. The doctor thinks there are a large number of people in the community with COVID pneumonia who don’t even realize it. Some don’t even realize they are sick (at least initially). They then either get better (best case), or go downhill very quickly. He calls it silent hypoxia. He says if someone’s oxygen level were to drop to 50% right away, they would immediately pass out—but if it happens slowly over the course of days, then people can compensate. It’s a lot like people climbing Mount Everest. The only way you know this is happening is by checking someone’s oxygen level (like with a pulse oximeter). What’s alarming is that if the disease is progressing like this, some people may never realize what is happening until they drop dead. This may even happen at home before the person ever seeks medical treatment or emergency care. In some cases (in the absence of testing), these deaths may not even be reported as COVID-related. This ties into [another New York Times article](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html) that points out the increased number of deaths around the world (25,000 to date) that are in excess of those officially reported as COVID-related. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2020, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/25 "2020-04-27T15:25:42Z")
Inigo hasn’t posted in 6 days now. Probably not a good sign. ---
**Author:** ![Dung\_Beetle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dung_beetle/32/7945_2.png) [@Dung\_Beetle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dung_Beetle)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/26 "2020-05-05T14:28:47Z")
Yeah, I think we should be worried now. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/27 "2020-05-05T14:36:32Z")
Sadly, I agree with you, Dung Beetle. Hope he returns soon. > [@puzzlegal](#): > > Best wishes. Here’s my maybe-covid story, much milder: > …Today, April 20th, I still feel unwell, still have a low-grade headache (that I’m afraid to treat) still have more phlegm than I should, still have (or have again?) a mild sore throat, and still have mild bowel symptoms. But I had enough energy over the weekend to fix some stuff around the house… In better news, I think I’ve recovered. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/28 "2020-05-05T15:02:25Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > In better news, I think I’ve recovered. That is good news, no lingering effects? ---
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2020, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/29 "2020-05-14T15:39:58Z")
I know you said you weren’t looking for well-wishes, **Inigo Montoya** , but I’m sending them your way anyway. If you’re reading this, let us know how you and your Missus made out. ---
**Author:** ![Inigo\_Montoya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inigo_montoya/32/124_2.png) [@Inigo\_Montoya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inigo_Montoya)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2020, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/30 "2020-05-16T16:41:41Z")
What a buncha sweethearts. Much regret for dropping off for a bit, got a lot going on in the old noggin lately and frankly this place stresses me out sometimes. But anyway, The Meat: Everyone under my roof is well. Missus and I still have frustratingly limited stamina so household chores involve way more sitting down and gasping than is productive. But no coughing, and the pulse-ox thingy tells us we’re both consistently over 95% even when something like mowing lawn puts me on the floor. It’s a curiosity. Seems the lungs are functioning fine but something else is a little wonky. We’ll work through it. She’s getting a CPAP, which has probably been a long time coming but since her recovery she’s been more readily confused than normal. Sleep study results suggested she was a vampire for all the breathing she doesn’t do when she’s asleep. So she’s still O2 starved. As mentioned, her up-the-nose COVID test was negative. The antibody blood test she had last week was positive. I don’t mean to slag on tech I don’t understand, but to a schlub like me any medical test that is predictably wrong 30-50% of the time isn’t the sort of thing you want to rely on when deciding whether or not to lift social restrictions. Until a better test is produced, every mayor & governor trying to decide whether or not to reopen is just flipping a coin and modifying the result by their own personal pucker factor. Aaaand I guess that’s that. You know, emergencies are funny. They don’t usually announce themselves, stuff just deviates from normal until you notice it, recognize what’s happening, and then try and decide if there’s anything you can do about it. It’s been an interesting adventure watching my country, in particular, react. Not everyone who masks up and hunkers down is a cowardly hero, not everyone who does their best to ignore the virus is a mindless sociopath–everyone has their own set of priorities. The disheartening thing is watching bonds crumble because “sides” choose to look down on each other, rather than recognize the incredible potential of a society constituted by willful individuals. Admittedly, there are hordes of ignoramuses among us. Some flail their guns around in public and demand to impose their idea of freedom to live or die as the whims of nature decide, others caustically shred their chosen adversaries from the safety of quarantine, smug in the knowledge that when they do get sick they will have done their part to ensure the emergency room will not be too crowded to help them. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2020, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/31 "2020-05-16T16:59:39Z")
Glad you’re doing better and I’m glad you checked in. ---
**Author:** ![lobotomyboy63](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobotomyboy63/32/2900_2.png) [@lobotomyboy63](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lobotomyboy63)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2020, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/32 "2020-05-16T17:05:06Z")
Glad to hear the good news, Inigo! ---
**Author:** ![LH75](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lh75/32/4438_2.png) [@LH75](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LH75)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2020, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/33 "2020-05-17T01:18:00Z")
I am also glad to hear you and your lady are on the mend ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2020, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/34 "2020-05-17T02:51:49Z")
Yay! Thanks for the update. I hope your stamina returns soon. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Chao\_Goes\_Mu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_chao_goes_mu/32/3191_2.png) [@The\_Chao\_Goes\_Mu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Chao_Goes_Mu)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2020, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/35 "2020-05-17T21:03:30Z")
I know you probably don’t remember me Inigo as I’ve only been back to the SD recently after a years long hiatus but I remember you and your kindness. I am overjoyed that you and your wife are doing well!!! We all had quite a scare worrying about you. {{{{Inigo}}}} ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2020, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/36 "2020-05-18T04:28:58Z")
Glad to see your post, **Inigo**. Had been worried about you and Mrs Inigo, and glad to hear you’re on the mend. ---
**Author:** ![Dung\_Beetle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dung_beetle/32/7945_2.png) [@Dung\_Beetle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dung_Beetle)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2020, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/37 "2020-05-18T13:56:25Z")
Thank you so much, **Inigo**! I really wasn’t expecting to hear good news, it’s much appreciated. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2020, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/38 "2020-05-18T15:06:24Z")
> [@Inigo\_Montoya](#): > > What a buncha sweethearts. Much regret for dropping off for a bit, got a lot going on in the old noggin lately and frankly this place stresses me out sometimes. It’s understandable – you had a lot on your plate. But, seriously, don’t do that to us again, m’kay? ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2020, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/39 "2020-05-18T15:12:42Z")
Glad you and yours are on the mend. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2020, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092/40 "2020-05-18T15:37:08Z")
> [@Inigo\_Montoya](#): > > Everyone under my roof is well. Missus and I still have frustratingly limited stamina so household chores involve way more sitting down and gasping than is productive. But no coughing, and the pulse-ox thingy tells us we’re both consistently over 95% even when something like mowing lawn puts me on the floor. It’s a curiosity. Seems the lungs are functioning fine but something else is a little wonky. We’ll work through it. She’s getting a CPAP, which has probably been a long time coming but since her recovery she’s been more readily confused than normal. Sleep study results suggested she was a vampire for all the breathing she doesn’t do when she’s asleep. So she’s still O2 starved. There are multiple articles about this phenomenon: lungs operate fine but low blood oxygen (hypoxia). I’ve tried to link several, with every damn last one being pay-walled - sorry. You can Google it, though. One theory is that COVID-19 starts robbing people’s blood cells of oxygen while not showing any overt signs of respiratory distress. This would also explain why patients can appear to be doing fine one moment with relatively mild symptoms and then spiral into a life-threatening situation quickly. This is why we have to stop thinking of COVID-19 is strictly or even primarily being a respiratory disease and view it more like an assault on the entire body - because that’s what it is. There were a lot of people early on who kept posting here that this was probably not that scary a disease, and that the data we’ll show that this is probably not that much worse than flu, but they’re clearly very wrong. This is a terrifyingly destructive disease that operates in a completely different manner than flu. I’m not posting this to be hyperbolic or to scare people unncessisarily - just to scare us straight, really. Don’t push your body to do things just because you think you ought to be recovered by now. I would definitely remain in regular contact with your physicians and care providers and monitor any sudden changes in condition - yes I’m saying the obvious but people do have a tendency to stubbornly believe that their body will just power through, and this virus seems to make people pay dearly for that belief. All of that said, I’m glad you seem to be doing better, and all the best of luck in the future. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-case-progressions-in-real-time/852092.md?page=1)