# Covid vaccine effectiveness rate (including against variants) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [August 6, 2021, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133 "2021-08-06T01:14:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2021, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/21 "2021-08-06T03:35:33Z")
Who in this thread do you think believes that it will all work out? Your messaging is literally (yes, literally) counterproductive. That’s all we’re saying. If you want to continue being belligerent and sloppy with your messages, please start arguing for the anti-vax side. You might help more. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2021, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/22 "2021-08-06T03:38:30Z")
> [@Tfletch1](#): > > As I’ve said twice now, you are not being specific enough in your posts. All you needed to say is that vaccines are now are less effective at preventing mild or asymptomatic infection by the Delta variant than earlier variants. I doubt @Chronos would have commented because he’s thinking about serious illness. Saying a vaccine is “not effective” sounds anti-vaxxer-ish to me. I can’t know what anyone is thinking, but that sounds astounding to me. I have not been following covid news lately, but it’s been clear from every source, while I’m not even paying attention, that the vaccines have been a lot more successful in keeping people out of hospitals than for the unvaccinated. Maybe I need to find different places, but everywhere I’ve been, there are hate campaigns against the unvaccinated for this very reason. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2021, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/23 "2021-08-06T03:39:38Z")
It’s not counterproductive; I am presenting facts, and unfortunately, a lot of people - even the vaccinated - are facts resistant. That’s not my fault, not my problem. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2021, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/24 "2021-08-06T03:47:27Z")
@Chronos is not fact resistant. @Tfletch1 isn’t fact resistant. @Heffalump_and_Roo isn’t fact resistant. I’m not fact resistant. We’re also very aware of what’s happening right now, and are quite upset with those who continue to make things worse for everyone. Hey, maybe we’re all fucking idiots and you’re the sole arbiter of the truth that no one else can see. Or maybe you should stop yelling long enough to actually listen to what we’re saying. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2021, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/25 "2021-08-06T03:51:25Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > So yes, the effectiveness against Delta in the couple studies is less than against Alpha. > > In one study, 79% infection and 88% against symptomatic infection. > > In another study, 72% and 73% respectively. > > They didn’t include the Israel study. Thanks. I think they mention the Israel study with the link but didn’t include the numbers in the text partly because, as they state, the Israel numbers don’t coincide with the other studies. ---
**Author:** ![BippityBoppityBoo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bippityboppityboo/32/5745_2.png) [@BippityBoppityBoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BippityBoppityBoo)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2021, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/26 "2021-08-06T04:13:50Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT I AM SAYING?! Not when you yell. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2021, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/27 "2021-08-06T05:33:39Z")
> [@Tfletch1](#): > > Thanks. I think they mention the Israel study with the link but didn’t include the numbers in the text partly because, as they state, the Israel numbers don’t coincide with the other studies. Here’s the numbers from the [linked Israel study](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/news/06072021-04). > [@](#): > > [As published yesterday (5.7.2021) in the Ministry of Health’s announcement](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/news/05072021-03), epidemiological analysis by the public health services in the Ministry of Health reveals that starting June 6th, the effectiveness of the vaccine decreased to 64% in preventing infection and 64% in preventing symptomatic illness. > > This decrease was observed simultaneously with the spread of the Delta variant in Israel. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing serious illness and hospitalization cases is estimated at 93%. It’s 64% against infection, 64% against symptomatic infection and 93% against hospitalization. Then more data from [a NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/23/science/covid-vaccine-israel-pfizer.html) about Israel. It’s a second, smaller study which contains the 39% against infection figure. > [@](#): > > More recently, they ran another analysis. This time, they looked at cases between June 20 and July 17. In that period, they estimated, the vaccine’s effectiveness was even lower: just 39 percent against infection. > > Still, they estimated that the vaccine’s effectiveness against serious disease remained high, at 91.4 percent. > > If a vaccine has an effectiveness of 39 percent that does not mean that 61 percent of people who got vaccinated were infected by the coronavirus. Instead, it means the risk of getting infected is 39 percent less among vaccinated people compared to unvaccinated. So even at that lower percentage, the data shows that vaccinated people have significantly less risk of getting infected than unvaccinated people. > > The small number of people in the latest study means that the true effectiveness might be lower or higher. Making the numbers even more uncertain is the fact that the new surge has not yet spread evenly across the whole country. Travelers who have picked up the highly contagious Delta variant have brought it back to neighborhoods where vaccination rates are relatively high. Lots of cautions in using that data, for sure. But since Israel was used as the bellweather for the world with the highest vaccination rates in the shortest amount of time back in the beginning of 2021, the trend might have some information. Whether the vaccines’ effectiveness wanes over time is probably best studied there since their population had [the highest rate of people vaccinated at one time in early 2021.](https://ourworldindata.org/vaccination-israel-impact) > [@](#): > > Israel has conducted the fastest campaign to vaccinate its population against COVID-19 so far. The world is now watching how the pandemic in the country evolves to assess whether vaccinations are having the intended effect, and how effective they might be in preventing infection, severe disease and death. As per the [NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/23/science/covid-vaccine-israel-pfizer.html), Israel’s vaccination rate is 58% while the US vaccination rate is 59% for first dose and 50% for second dose. > [@](#): > > Israel launched an aggressive campaign with the Pfizer vaccine in January, and the country has achieved one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, with 58 percent of the population fully vaccinated. Per [USAFacts on 8/5/21](https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/) > [@](#): > > At least 192,120,576 people or 59% of the population have received at least one dose. > > Overall, 165,081,416 people or 50% of the population have been fully vaccinated. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2021, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/28 "2021-08-06T14:11:13Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > The small number of people in the latest study means that the true effectiveness might be lower or higher. Making the numbers even more uncertain is the fact that the new surge has not yet spread evenly across the whole country. Travelers who have picked up the highly contagious Delta variant have brought it back to neighborhoods where vaccination rates are relatively high. Exactly. This is what I was referring to in my earlier post. People are having a hard time deciphering this data because the data set is so small, particularly the unvaccinated data set, because the % of vaccinated adults in Israel is so high. Anyway, Israel’s surge got off to a slower start than the UK’s because they had more fully-vaxxed people when the virus started circulating. It’s taken hold recently, but hospitalizations and deaths remain low relative to previous surges. Israel has chosen to have restrictions and masks in lieu of a full lockdown. If their surge follows the UK’s pattern, they only have a few more weeks for Delta to burn before they reach the peak. Meanwhile, there should be a much lower increase in hospitalizations and deaths. In the US, counties lucky enough to have high vaccination rates will look like the UK. Counties with high previous infection rates _may_ also be partially spared. Others counties won’t be so lucky. Louisiana is being pummeled right now where cases are higher than they’ve ever been and hospitalizations are as high as the January surge. Deaths are already rising rapidly and will likely hit rates seen in January if they’re lucky. If they’re not lucky, the rates will look like April 2020. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2021, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/29 "2021-08-06T16:03:42Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > My problem is, when people say, “Oh wow, vaccines are like 90% effective, I don’t need to wear masks. CDC says we don’t need to wear masks,” that is a problem. Yes, that’s a problem. And the answer to that is not to say that “No, vaccines are only 50% effective”, as you did, because that isn’t true. The answer is to say “But a vaccine and mask together are even more effective, and not enough people are vaccinated yet, and you don’t know whether the person next to you is vaccinated, so we should still require masks”. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2021, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/30 "2021-08-06T16:52:47Z")
The problem we have is in defining “serious”. Long-COVID is not necessarily categorized as a serious illness – you don’t necessarily end up in the hospital initially. But it’s still serious. > **[Study: 20% of vaccinated health workers who test positive suffer from long COVID](https://www.timesofisrael.com/vaccine-downgrades-disease-but-many-still-suffer-long-covid-israeli-study/)** > > Majority of 39 'breakthrough' cases among 1,497 monitored were mild, but research author says persistence of symptoms among minority ‘raises concern’ I don’t want COVID - period. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2021, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/31 "2021-08-06T17:18:33Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The problem we have is in defining “serious”. > > Long-COVID is not necessarily categorized as a serious illness – you don’t necessarily end up in the hospital initially. But it’s still serious. Yes, I’m aware of long covid in mild cases. > [@asahi](#): > > I don’t want COVID - period. Smart people don’t want covid and know how to lower their risk. ---
**Author:** ![JaneDoe42](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/janedoe42/32/14104_2.png) [@JaneDoe42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JaneDoe42)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2021, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/32 "2021-08-06T19:46:19Z")
I’m fairly sure this is pay-walled, from the [Arizona Republic](https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2021/08/06/have-questions-covid-19-delta-variant-we-have-answers/5489785001/) newspaper. Arizona’s COVID-19 cases in July were mostly among people who were not fully vaccinated — that was true for 89% of cases. Since March, 94% of the state’s COVID-19 hospitalizations and 96% of deaths have been in individuals not fully vaccinated, Christ said on Aug. 4. The vaccines are like a life vest worn on a boat to prevent something really bad from happening in an accident. “It doesn’t mean that you’re not going to get wet or that you’re not going to go overboard, but it’s going to hopefully prevent you from ultimately drowning and dying if there were accidents that would happen,” Christ said. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2021, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/33 "2021-08-08T21:15:14Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I really don’t understand why this is so hard to understand. I’m beginning to think that Americans are just…dumb. > > ETA: Non-Americans, help me out here. I am living in a society that is addicted to “optimism.” Am I in the wrong here? I’m an American, but I think there was a strong wave of optimism when the vaccines first came out. We went from 200,000 cases a day in January, to a low of about 10,000 a day in June (we’re back up to 100,000 cases a day in August due to Delta). I remember when the vaccines came out some experts were saying you didn’t need a mask anymore. I had friends go out and buy concert tickets, looking forward to being able to socialize again. I think theres an issue where people don’t want to accept this is going to be a multi year war. Barely 1-2 billion people on earth are vaccinated. Thats a lot of opportunities for the virus to mutate into something stronger and more vaccine resistant. It may take several years to get Africa vaccinated. Who knows what new variants will come out in that time period. I think among the vaccinated, there has been some pull back on optimism. However when I go to the grocery store in my rural hometown, its barely 10-20% of people wearing masks. The number is higher in urban areas, but not as high as it was before the vaccines. We went through this period where stores and medical experts were saying ‘if you’re vaccinated, you don’t need a mask’, but I think that was pre delta. I’m still wondering what role long covid plays in the current employment situation. Supposedly there are 1 million more jobs than there are applicants, but I don’t know if thats because of millions of people who can’t work now due to long covid. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2021, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/34 "2021-08-09T00:55:13Z")
> **[‘We just miss him terribly’: Woman mourns father who died of COVID-19 even...](https://www.wfla.com/news/national/we-just-miss-him-terribly-woman-mourns-father-who-died-of-covid-19-even-while-vaccinated/)** > > DRUID HILLS, Ga. (NBC News Channel) — A child-like innocence rests in Tanya Washington’s homes, but these arts and crafts are not just for play. “We’re gonna make posters,” … ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2021, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/35 "2021-08-09T14:29:29Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > We went through this period where stores and medical experts were saying ‘if you’re vaccinated, you don’t need a mask’, but I think that was pre delta. The real problem with such a policy is that it amounts, de facto, to “nobody needs to wear a mask”. Unless you stop everyone without a mask and ask for proof of vaccination, the unvaccinated will just go without masks, too, and no business is going to do that. They probably won’t even ask maskless customers at all, so the unvaccinated wouldn’t even need to lie. What should have been done was masking policies based on community statistics, something like “Until the county reaches 70% vaccination, everyone in the county must be masked”. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2021, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133/36 "2021-08-10T19:43:01Z")
Equally problematic is that we don’t have the data that we need in real-time to be making these kinds of critical decisions. I’m not saying we have no data, but going back to the issue of breakthrough infections, CDC made a decision to stop tracking breakthroughs even as it was as clear as day that there was a new variant that was raging out of control in India and quickly spreading to parts of Europe. Vaccination rates are certainly an important metric but we have to be prepared for game-changing developments, such as new variants. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccine-effectiveness-rate-including-against-variants/948133.md?page=1)