# Covid Vaccines in Canada
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089
**Category:** The Quarantine Zone
**Tags:** covid-quarantine
**Created:** [March 2, 2021, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089 "2021-03-02T04:00:12Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 13
### Author:  [@FinsToTheLeft](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinsToTheLeft)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2021, 9:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/241 "2021-05-19T09:46:00Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#):
>
> I can’t find any information anywhere about the “available vaccine facilities” that Sam Stone talked about earlier in the thread. The ones that Trudeau negligently failed to open up and that would have enabled Canada to produce millions of vaccines within months. Any cites would be appreciated.
The Sanofi facility in Toronto is the former Connaught Labs that was sold off by Mulroney. They produce DPT vaccines for the global market, but it was pointed to as an example of “Canada doesn’t produce vaccines”.
The feds have since invested in the plant to help response to Influenza.
[https://ipolitics.ca/2020/12/08/sanofi-wont-use-its-canadian-facility-to-make-a-covid-vaccine/](https://ipolitics.ca/2020/12/08/sanofi-wont-use-its-canadian-facility-to-make-a-covid-vaccine/)
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2021, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/242 "2021-05-19T15:34:17Z")
> [@FinsToTheLeft](#):
>
> The Sanofi facility in Toronto is the former Connaught Labs that was sold off by Mulroney.
Yes, good point. And that was over 30 years ago. It was approved by the Conservative cabinet of the day. It’s almost like the lack of vaccine facilities in Canada is a complex issue that occurred over decades, and can’t be entirely blamed on a single politician in office today.
I’m perplexed as to why anyone would think that Canada could have (starting in early 2020) suddenly developed our own home-made and packaged vaccine using some sort of “existing facilities”. All of the information I can find certainly does not show any evidence of this.
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### Author:  [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2021, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/243 "2021-05-19T16:00:19Z")
So I played with a very (very) dumb model to see “effective” immunity
| Pop | Shots | | | Effective immunity | | | Immune | | | Immunity | | Doses |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | Pop | % | |
| 330,000,000 | 38% | 0% | 62% | 0% | 70% | 90% | 0 | 0 | 184,140,000 | 184,140,000 | 56% | 409,200,000 |
| 330,000,000 | 14% | 48% | 38% | 0% | 70% | 90% | 0 | 110,880,000 | 112,860,000 | 223,740,000 | 68% | 409,200,000 |
| 38,000,000 | 50% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 70% | 90% | 0 | 12,236,000 | 1,368,000 | 13,604,000 | 36% | 20,520,000 |
| 38,000,000 | 73% | 0% | 27% | 0% | 70% | 90% | 0 | 0 | 9,234,000 | 9,234,000 | 24% | 20,520,000 |
| 38,000,000 | 50% | 4% | 46% | 0% | 70% | 90% | 0 | 1,064,000 | 15,732,000 | 16,796,000 | 44% | 36,480,000 |
| 38,000,000 | 6% | 48% | 46% | 0% | 70% | 90% | 0 | 12,768,000 | 15,732,000 | 28,500,000 | 75% | 53,200,000 |
It’s interesting to see that had Canada only gone for a pure 2 dose model with the same number of doses as currently available) would have possibly had a worse overall immunity level. The broadness provides a decent cover. The problem is that herd immunity is tagged to 75%.
Playing with the model if Canada focused on getting to a ~48/46% split in 1/2 doses we’d be there. That’s about 12 weeks out, assuming 1.4 million doses available/injected per week.
Massive caveats here of course - I don’t even play an epidemiologist on Facebook.
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### Author:  [@FinsToTheLeft](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinsToTheLeft)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2021, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/244 "2021-05-19T16:08:51Z")
I’m not blaming or relieving Mulroney of responsibility for the current day issue, simply that is the facility that the finger-pointing on both sides revolves around. We’ve been too quick to rely on global supply chains for too long.
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#):
>
> I’m perplexed as to why anyone would think that Canada could have (starting in early 2020) suddenly developed our own home-made and packaged vaccine using some sort of “existing facilities”. All of the information I can find certainly does not show any evidence of this.
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2021, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/245 "2021-05-19T16:18:38Z")
You’re right. It’s a long standing, complex issue.
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### Author:  [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2021, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/246 "2021-05-19T18:35:10Z")
This is what I was talking about, and a link I already posted::
> **[The roots of Canada’s COVID-19 vaccine shortage go back decades](https://theconversation.com/the-roots-of-canadas-covid-19-vaccine-shortage-go-back-decades-154792)**
>
> Behind Canada’s current COVID-19 vaccine shortage is a decades-long tale of unheeded warnings, missed opportunities and dismantled resources that was never going to end well.
Ftom the article:
> [@](#):
>
> Efforts to secure a domestically made supply then turned to upgrading the National Research Council (NRC) facility in Montréal and subsequently building an entirely new plant at a total cost of $170 million. In doing so, the government bypassed providing PnuVax, a biopharmaceutical company also located in Montréal, with any of the $600 million from Industry Canada’s Strategic Innovation Fund earmarked for the research or development of COVID-19 vaccines and therapies.
>
> PnuVax had been renovated in 2012 to meet Health Canada standards and according to sources cited by the _Globe and Mail_, the company could have been ready to produce millions of doses of a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of 2020.
Trudeau claimed the new NRC facility would be ready by the end of 2020, so Pnuvax wasn’t needed:
> [@](#):
>
> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau initially said the NRC facility would be up and running by November 2020 and producing 250,000 doses a month. However, in early February, Trudeau admitted that the [NRC plant wouldn’t be ready until the summer of 2021](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canadas-vaccine-procurement-efforts-have-been-shrouded-in-unjustified/), and with the need to outfit the facility for the Novavax vaccine and subsequent Health Canada inspections, there won’t be any vaccine coming from there until the end of 2021.
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### Author:  [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)
#### Post date: [May 20, 2021, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/247 "2021-05-20T13:32:57Z")
This [PnuVax](https://www.pnuvax.com/)? That’s…that’s not an encouraging webpage and this is not great either.
_"Our team has over 30 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry, from research to full scale production._"
You know what is interesting? The following from the [HESA COMMITTEE MEETING held on Feb 22, 2021](https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentViewer/en/43-2/HESA/meeting-20/evidence)
Larry Macguire is the Conservative MP on the committee and Dr. John Lewis is from the University of Alberta and Entos Pharmaceuticals
> [@](#):
>
> **[Mr. Larry Maguire](https://apps.ourcommons.ca/ParlDataWidgets/en/intervention/11143607):**
>
> If that funding was made available to Canadian pharmaceutical companies right at the very beginning of the pandemic, how much further ahead would we be in getting the Health Canada approvals now?
>
> **[Dr. John Lewis](https://apps.ourcommons.ca/ParlDataWidgets/en/intervention/11143610):**
>
> I’d love to put that in perspective. It’s estimated at between $350 million to $600 million to bring a vaccine all the way from discovery to the end of phase three and licensure. A small smattering of this funding was offered to companies throughout Canada—through the NRC, for instance, a maximum of $5 million to get to the end of phase one. That really put the major part of the burden of development on the companies themselves.
>
> To finish your question, yes, I think if we had received upfront funding at the beginning—and Gary sounds as though he has a fantastic solution as well—we’d be well into phase three toward licensure by now.
So Phase Three trials…that puts them in the class as [medicago’s planet based covid vaccination](https://www.medicago.com/en/covid-19-programs/) Phase 3 trial state. Which I note is not currently being jabbed into arms in Canada despite hitting [Phase 3 in March](https://www.pharmacytimes.com/view/phase-3-trial-of-adjuvanted-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-commences-enrollment-in-the-us-canada)
Personally I think the Cabinet, and Health Canada, chickened out when it came to vaccinations and lacked the bold decisiveness that other ministries showed. Revenue Canada built and deployed CERB faster than anyone could have foreseen. However, even the guy running a pharmaceutical shop says funding at the beginning would have meant vaccinations in phase 3, maybe, by Feb/March.
So be bold and maybe get vaccinations in March/April. Rely on stable global supply chains and get vaccinations in April/May with everyone else. I can see that being a tricky choice to make.
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [May 20, 2021, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/248 "2021-05-20T22:26:01Z")
Thanks for this article; It helps to explain where you’re coming from.
I respect the scientists quoted by the Globe and Mail article, but recognize that they are offering opinions with the benefit of some hindsight.
I think we did pretty well in diversifying our purchases - we ordered a LOT of vaccine from a wide varieties of companies and countries early on - before we knew much about them or which would be more effective. This was the prudent way to go, IMO, rather than putting all of our eggs into the “we’ll do it all ourselves thank you very much” basket.
Maybe, we might have been able to develop a home grown vaccine a month or two earlier. And this assumes we could have gotten the packaging of the vaccine lined up as well - this is a major part of the complex business. Maybe. Might have.
Instead, we diversified our strategies - and I’m pretty happy to have gotten the Pfizer last week.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [June 3, 2021, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/249 "2021-06-03T13:36:15Z")
> **[Canada now among top countries for 1st doses of COVID-19 vaccines. So how...](https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6050268)**
>
> After lagging behind other countries in the early months of vaccination, Canada is now among the leaders when it comes to the percentage of the population vaccinated against COVID-19 with at least one dose. But the next steps could get...
> [@](#):
>
> After lagging behind other countries in the early months of vaccination, Canada is now among the leaders when it comes to the percentage of the population vaccinated against COVID-19 with at least one dose.
>
> So far, Canada has vaccinated 58 per cent of the total population with at least one dose, putting the country just behind Israel, which has plateaued at around 63 per cent of its population, and roughly neck-and-neck with the U.K.
>
> That means Canada is among the highest ranks of other large countries, and not far behind the global front-runner for first dose — an island nation in the Indian Ocean.
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### Author:  [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)
#### Post date: [June 3, 2021, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/250 "2021-06-03T13:48:19Z")
_The Economist_ keeps a list of the best performing countries by percentage of adults who have received one and two doses. Canada recently made its first appearance on the list on the strength of those who have now received one dose. But all the other countries on the list had high percentages receiving two doses whereas few in Canada have.
In the US, politics remains the biggest factor in non-vaccination. Almost everyone who received a first dose has already received a second dose.
International comparisons of health have their limits. It is good many Canadians want to be vaccinated. People are doing what they can with the available resources. In my town, a significant portion of promised vaccines disappear as other places are suddenly deemed higher relevance. Canada has done okay. Not fantastic. Most health care workers have not received a second dose yet. The significance of changing second dose timing is unknown and this may not matter much. Or might.
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [June 3, 2021, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/251 "2021-06-03T15:25:22Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#):
>
> The significance of changing second dose timing is unknown and this may not matter much. Or might.
Early studies have been done, and more are underway, so it’s not like this is currently a total unknown.
I think this British study has been cited elswhere here on the dope: It may well turn out that Canada’s decision to delay the 2nd dose was the right one.
> The research found that extending the second dose interval to 12 weeks increased the peak SARS-CoV-2 spike specific antibody response 3.5-fold compared to those who had the second vaccine at three weeks. Although the peak cellular immune responses were lower after the delayed second vaccine, responses were comparable between the groups when measured at a similar time point following the first dose.
>
> The team concluded that extending administration of the second Pfizer vaccine to 12 weeks **potentially enhances and extends antibody immunity,** which is believed to be important in virus neutralisation and prevention of infection.
> **[Delaying second Pfizer vaccines to 12 weeks significantly increases antibody...](https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/2021/delaying-second-pfizer-vaccines-to-12-weeks-significantly-increases-antibody-responses-in-older-people)**
>
> Antibody response in people aged over 80 is three-and-a-half times greater in those who have the second dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine after 12 weeks compared to those who have it at a three-week interval, finds a new study led by the University...
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### Author:  [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)
#### Post date: [June 3, 2021, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/252 "2021-06-03T15:41:10Z")
That might be true but it’s an accidental success. I mean I’ll take it but even so…
We had to try for a broad 1st shot/delayed 2nd shot because we didn’t have sufficient supply to really try do anything else.
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [June 3, 2021, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/253 "2021-06-03T15:46:28Z")
Very true. The initial decision was based on the assumption that delaying the 2nd shot would lead to a DECREASED immune response overall, and POORER anitbody immunity overall. But the numbers said that even given this, and the initial lower supply levels, it was better for the population as a whole to get the first shot in as many arms as possible.
Now it appears that delaying the 2nd shot might actually lead to a BETTER immune response. Happy accident to be sure, and I’ll take it, but the initial decision was still the right one, given the available data and vaccine supply at the time of the decision.
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### Author:  [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)
#### Post date: [June 3, 2021, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/254 "2021-06-03T15:46:43Z")
Yeah, I do not think it was a bad decision under the circumstances. But let’s not pretend we know everything about it.
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [June 3, 2021, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/255 "2021-06-03T15:47:49Z")
No, we absolutely do not know everything about it. I cited ONE study, and although it contains good news, it’s the tip of the iceberg in this area. (edit; I was replying mainly to your wording of “unknown”. I acknowledge we don’t know _everything_, but neither is it currently _unknown_)
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### Author:  [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)
#### Post date: [June 3, 2021, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/256 "2021-06-03T15:54:09Z")
Doctors learn to be skeptical of early studies. Again, it was a reasonable decision under circumstances which were less than ideal. You read a lot of studies, you know they sometimes mean less or prove less than one might hope. But better supportive than abortive.
It matters when they measured the antibody response in both cohorts. I did not see this in the article on a quick perusal. The data applies to English over 80 who received Pfizer for both shots. The number tested is small and not sufficiently powered to conclude very much. But certainly worth a closer look.
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### Author:  [@veryfrank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/veryfrank)
#### Post date: [June 3, 2021, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/257 "2021-06-03T18:42:53Z")
> **[AstraZeneca recipients in Ontario may get 2nd shot of same vaccine, Pfizer or...](https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/astrazeneca-recipients-in-ontario-may-get-2nd-shot-of-same-vaccine-pfizer-or-moderna-1.5454421)**
>
> Ontario says people who have received the first dose of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine will have three options for their second dose starting on Friday.
The announced it a couple of days ago but I guess it’s official now. I think, given the option, and considering the study results, that I’ll ask for Pfizer for my second dose (my first was AZ). And with the 16 week gap shortened to 12, ideally I’ll be able to get the second jab the week of July 19.
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [June 4, 2021, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/258 "2021-06-04T04:05:00Z")
They made this official today in BC as well.
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### Author:  [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)
#### Post date: [June 4, 2021, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/259 "2021-06-04T04:12:59Z")
I won’t. I’ll take AZ again. I see no reason to not do so. It’s designed to work with itself and I’ll go that way.
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### Author:  [@FinsToTheLeft](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinsToTheLeft)
#### Post date: [June 4, 2021, 9:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/covid-vaccines-in-canada/934089/260 "2021-06-04T09:57:45Z")
> [@veryfrank](#):
>
> The announced it a couple of days ago but I guess it’s official now. I think, given the option, and considering the study results, that I’ll ask for Pfizer for my second dose (my first was AZ). And with the 16 week gap shortened to 12, ideally I’ll be able to get the second jab the week of July 19.
You and me both, I’m due the same time as you
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