I see no value in libertarianism at all. I do regret the sexual revolution.
NDD, having fun being provocative today?
Anyway Sam - 4 years ago that bastion of social conservatism voted for Romney 21%, Guiliani 17%, Brownback 15%, Gingrich 14%, and McCain 12%. Of those only Brownback, with his endorsement of intelligent design, might be a candidate with major RR support.
Now it’s Paul 30%, Romney 23%, Gary Johnson and Chris Christie each at 6%, and Gingrich at 5%. THEN you get down to your “well received” Daniels tied with Bachman.
All I think you can say from this is that in a CPAC that had its usual RR contingent not show, the RR candidates had even less support than they do most years and that there is no reason to believe that CPAC is at all reflective of how the base that comes out in primaries will vote.
I think your take is essentially correct, but I think you’re overstating the pace at which the change is coming. There are still many big government/social conservatives in positions of influence, and they are not desperate enough and out of power long enough to realize that the Santorum/Bachman types are general-election poison.
Mitch Daniels is probably the GOP’s best candidate, but even if he wins the nomination, I expect Obama to be reelected. That’s probably a good thing w/r/t keeping a hostile takeover of the GOP going.
I know this is an old joke, but after looking at those long arms and Adam’s apple, I suspect she could . . .
:eek:
Rummy and Cheney were booed at CPAC. First intelligent thing the Paul people have done, ever. 
I take the point that CPAC has generally represented more of the libertarian wing of the Republican Party, but I see the diminishing of social conservatism even within that context.
Look at the straw poll results:
Ron Paul: 30%
Mitt Romney: 23%
Gary Johnson: 6%
Chris Christie: 6%
Newt Gingrich: 5%
Tim Pawlenty: 4%
Michelle Bachmann: 4%
Mitch Daniels: 4%
Sarah Palin: 3%
Rick Santorum: 2%
John Thune: 2%
Hermann Cain: 2%
Jon Huntsman: 1%
Haley Barbour: 1%
The first person on that list who is a real culture warrior is Rick Santorum, and he got a miserable 2% of the vote. Gary Johnson is a self-declared libertarian. Chris Christie’s big claim to fame is cutting the size of government in New Jersey.
Michelle Bachmann tried to make a big splash at CPAC, and wound up with 4% of the vote. Palin got 3%. If you want to count them as culture warriors as well, then the total votes for the ‘cultural conservatives’ was 9%.
Add all this up - embrace of GOProud, the absence of social conservative preening, the dismal showing of the culture warriors in the straw poll, the booing of Rumsfeld and Cheney, and you see a picture of CPAC that looks substantially different than it did in years past.
Also, I follow other Republican sources (National Review, TownHall, Brietbart’s sites, etc), and see the same trends there.
By way of comparison, here are the 2009 results:
Other than Huckabee and Palin, social conservatives appear to have done better this year.
Tim Pawlenty, who got 4% (admittedly, not much, but more) has been on the radio recently to reiterate his promise to reinstate DADT. Do you count him, since he is evidently feeling pressure to declare himself to the right on social issues?
I’ll believe it when I see it in a real election. There’s certainly a demographic shift that works against a lot of the social conservative issues, but it’s going to be a gradual death. Very gradual. Those old folks just don’t kick the bucket fast enough, and they keep voting! 
A recent Pew poll of the U.S. shows:
Democrats/lean D: 47%
No Partisan Leaning: 13%
Republicans/lean R – Disagree with the Tea Party or have no opinion: 23%
Republicans/lean R – Agree with the Tea Party: 17%
17% of the public. That’s a lot less of the public than the Tea Partiers try to pretend they represent, but it is a vote the GOP can’t win without. What shall they do?
But when they do go . . . they will be replaced in the retirement-age voter demographic by Baby Boomers. And there are even more of them. Imagine the common area of every retirement home festooned with Day-Glo posters, Hendrix music on the PA, the air full of “incense” . . .
You weren’t the only one.
You’re moving the goalposts a bit here. While it’s true that few of them are hard-core culture warriors, there is a difference between a conservative who soft-pedals cultural issues, and an actual libertarian.
Johnson is a bona fide libertarian, and Ron Paul is Ron Paul. But without checking, all the rest are firmly pro-life, anti-gay marriage, and pro-drug war. I doubt any of them are going to spend much time talking about civil liberties or the dangers of corporate welfare. Hell, I suspect half of them would oppose cutting the defense budget, fiscal conservatism be damned. (yes, all the major Democrats are pro-drug war and pro-corporate welfare, too; but they aren’t libertarian either)
People like Daniels, Romney or Christie, while they downplay social issues, are only viable nominees because they are nonetheless still acceptable to SoCons.
Johnson and Paul, on the other hand, have only a slightly better chance of getting the nomination than I do.
It’s going to be Romney. I think he’ll have to choose a social righty as his VP candidate, though. It won’t be Palin (general election poison and she thinks the VP spot is beneath her now anyway) or Bachmann (too batshit), but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him pick somebody like Gingrich (in the elder statesman/ mentor mode of Cheney and Biden) or Huckabee (socially conservative but doesn’t scare the shit out of moderates.
A dark horse in this whole thing is Jeb Bush. An actually competent politician, and not generally seen as a wing nut. Some of the comnventional wisdom is that W has wrecked the Bush name for perpetuity, but I give the public more credit than that, and I think they know the difference between W and Jeb. If he wants to, I think he can be a player. He still wouldn’t beat Obama, but he might not get slaughtered as bad as any of these other clowns would.
The problem is that Jeb is a complete unknown outside of Florida, and although he got out of office just in time to hand Charlie Crist our current fiscal woes, he was a piss-poor governor.
Diogenes is right. Jeb Bush is increasingly being seen as one of the real grownups on the right. He’s well known among Republicans, and in my opnion if he announced a run for president he would almost immediately become the front-runner for the nomination. However, he has repeatedly said he’s not interested in running, and I believe him. I think that a presidential run would cause the Bush name to be dragged through the mud again - justified or not. Jeb knows this. I honestly think he’s biding his time until 2016 - at which point A run wouldn’t look quite so much like a familial dynasty.
That’s a mighty big ‘other than’. Between them, they got 20% of the vote in 2009. This year, they collectively got 5%. That’s a pretty big loss of support. Where did those people go? It doesn’t look like they migrated to other social conservatives.
furt: Fair enough. There’s no doubt that most of these candidates pay lip service to the hot button social issues like abortion and gay marriage. But there’s a difference between paying lip service and being a culture warrior. For example, no one is voting for Mitt Romney because they think he’s going to go and bring back God in government and start funding churches and going after performance art or any of that nonsense. He’s basically going to be the CEO of America and try to right the ship economically. He’s the ‘competence’ candidate. Johnson and Christie have support because people want someone who will cut the size of government and defend those cuts. They’re the “Did you see Christie on Youtube?” candidates.
I think it’s only starting at Michelle Bachmann do you get the candidates who are more likely to focus on social issues or make social issues a big part of their presidency. Gingrich maybe, but I think his appeal is more as a policy wonk and idea guy. Personally, I think he’s gone a little nutty. But he has that reputation as a guy who knows policy inside and out and has ideas for how to fix the problem.
Now, to be even more fair, these straw polls (and all polls) are just snapshots in time. All they tell you is what the zeitgeist was at that particular place and time. If the economy gets a little better, you just might see a shift back towards social issues.
But I do think there’s a new bloc of fairly young Republicans who trend libertarian and socially moderate, and they’re not letting the social conservatives push them around. So far, both groups are working together because the fiscal situation is the common interest. Once that need for cooperation lessens, we might just see a big rift in the Republican party.
After taking the House in an election all about jobs, the economy, and the deficit, it took the GOP about five minutes to put up a bill placing huge restrictions on abortion funding and to start up a campaign to defund Planned Parenthood and other reproductive health services.
The Republicans know good and well that a big part of their base is made up of single-issue voters on abortion, or at least on cultural issues. They might also favor lower taxes or deregulation or whatever, but when faced with a social moderate they’ll gladly stay home or go third party. Some areas of the country are welcoming to socially moderate Republicans but nationally that block of the base is just too big.
Sam, I know how much you want to believe that thoughtful and socially moderate economic conservatives like yourself are becoming a bigger part of the Republican party, and you may be right, in the same sense that South America is moving away from Africa. But for now, and for at least the next few decades, a vote for a Republican is a vote for bullshit like H.R. 3.
Oh, we’ve all had the experience of waking up naked on somebody’s lawn with two flaming wiener dogs, a nun in a leather corset, and no idea where you are or how you got there. Don’t be so hard on yourself!
I swear a solemn oath here and now that if Jeb Bush ever announces his candidacy for the presidency, I will . . . leave this sentence unfinished.
This post really needed a link for full effectiveness.