CPAC - The fall of Social Conservatism

[Sam_Stone]

@Diogenes_the_Cynic

You appear to be only partially informed on these positions. The Justice Department thing is about process, not results, and in point of fact, while Obama says he “personally” thinks that “marriage is between a man and a woman,” he also opposes any legislation to make it illegal and that he would not support an anti-SSM Amendment. Legislatively speaking, he offers no opposition to it and he frames his personal opinion only as a personal, religious opinion (albeit a stated position that is clearly a lie) and not as a position on actual public policy. His stance is essentially analogous to politicians who say they are “personally opposed” to abortion, but still think it should be legal. It’s meaningless, political obfuscation. You should inform yourself better before you try to tu quoque.

Obama has repeatedly stated that he supports civil unions but that his religion informs him that marriage is reserved for the union between a man and a woman. I don’t believe he has changed that position at all, has he? It’s possible I’m behind the times on this, but I haven’t seen him give even rhetorical support to gay marriage.

You may be right that I’m a bit behind the times on Obama’s opinion, but then I’d say the same of you and what you think conservatives believe. Opinions on gay marriage and civil unions appear to be shifting rapidly on the right.

Here’s an interesting Pew Poll from 2009 which shows how much the Republicans moved on this issue in just the year after the election:

Over the past year, support for civil unions has grown significantly among those who oppose same-sex marriage (from 24% in August 2008 to 30% in 2009) while remaining stable among those who favor same-sex marriage. At the same time, opponents of same-sex marriage continue to outnumber supporters overall. An August 2009 Pew Research Center survey finds that 53% oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally, compared with 39% who support same-sex marriage, numbers that are virtually unchanged over the past year.

From that poll, we find the following levels of support for civil unions:

Conserv Rep: 43%
Mod/Lib Rep: 59%
Independent: 63%
Cons/Mod Dem: 54%
Lib Dem: 76%

That’s not a huge partisan split, is it?

Here are the numbers for gay marriage:

Conserv Rep 14%
Mod/Lib Rep 36%
Independent 44%
Cons/Mod Dem 41%
Lib Dem 72%

Some important things to note about this:

1. The only group which actually has majority support for gay marriage is the liberal Democrats, which makes up only about 17% of the electorate.

2. Support for gay marriage in the vast middle hovers right around 40%, regardless of party. The moderate Democrats are only 5% higher than the moderate Republicans

3. Even among conservative Republicans, almost half support giving gays fully legal rights of marriage. They just don’t want it called marriage. This is Barack Obama’s position so far as I know.

4. Even 28% of liberal Democrats are opposed to gay marriage.

People on this board have a habit of using gay issues as a wedge, proclaiming that Republicans are the party of hatred and intolerance because of gay issues. In fact, it’s just not a partisan issue - opposition to gay marriage is mainstream in America, and you can find plenty of it on all sides of the political boundary. Furthermore, painting all Republicans with the hatred and intolerance label over this issue is painting with way too broad a brush, since a majority of them actually agree with at least civil unions, and the mainstream Republicans aren’t very different than mainstream Democrats.

[Miller]

@Sam_Stone

That ‘gotcha’ question keeps coming up because people on this board keep accusing the right of ‘hatred and intolerance’ because of DADT and gay marriage, when in fact there are plenty of people on the right who support it, and plenty of Democrats who don’t - including the current Democrat President. So we keep pointing out that inconvenient fact.

While steadfastly ignoring the inconvenient fact that anti-gay rhetoric on the right is of a significantly different tone than that on the left. Yeah, most Democrats don’t think gays should get married, which is a bigoted position. But it’s not a patch on the Republicans who think that gay rights will bring about the downfall of Western Civilization. And that’s not exactly a fringe position on the right - Rick “Frothy” Santorum expressed those ideas as a sitting senator.

Yeah, like everything else in politics, there are outliers on both sides of the aisle. There are some conservatives, like yourself, or Bricker, who are unambiguously pro gay rights. And there are some democrats who are as homophobic as your Mr. Santorum. But the issue still works out as one of the most starkly partisan in contemporary politics. I’d say abortion is the only issue with a cleaner partisan divide, and even that’s not 100%.

[Diogenes_the_Cynic]

@Sam_Stone

That ‘gotcha’ question keeps coming up because people on this board keep accusing the right of ‘hatred and intolerance’ because of DADT and gay marriage, when in fact there are plenty of people on the right who support it, and plenty of Democrats who don’t - including the current Democrat President. So we keep pointing out that inconvenient fact.

You’re incorrect about the President.

[Diogenes_the_Cynic]

@Sam_Stone

Obama has repeatedly stated that he supports civil unions but that his religion informs him that marriage is reserved for the union between a man and a woman.

He has always said the he does not support any legislation against SSM, and would actively oppose any action against it on a federal level. As I said, his personal opinion on marriage has never been framed as anything but a personal opinion, it’s not a public policy position. He does not oppose any attempts by states to legalize it.

[Captain_Amazing]

@Sam_Stone

Six in ten Republicans under 30 support gay marriage. The old guard is changing [slowly].

Just to nitpick, but I think the article is saying that 6 in 10 people under 30 support gay marriage, not 6 in 10 Republicans under 30. And, looking, here’s the poll:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/2010/02/post-abc_poll_views_on_gay_mar.html

Here are the actual numbers:

Q. Do you think it should be legal or illegal for gay and lesbian couples to get married?

               --- Legal ----   -- Illegal ---
               NET       Strongly       NET      Strongly

All 47 31 50 42

Democrat 60 45 39 32
Independent 50 32 48 38
Republican 27 13 69 58

Northeast 55 41 39 31
Midwest 48 28 50 39
South 37 26 61 52
West 57 34 41 34

Age 18-29 65 51 33 26
Age 30-64 47 28 51 42
Age 65+ 30 20 66 57

I’m having problems formatting it, but hopefully you can understand it.

[Really_Not_All_That_Bright]

My understanding is the same. 65% of all 18-29 year olds are in favor.

[New_Deal_Democrat]

@Beniamino

Seconded.

I would also add that if the socially conservative were to be snubbed by the Republican party and seek refuge with the Democrats, we might indeed have a new crop of “New Deal Democrats”.

Yes indeed. My social conservatism is based on regrets about changes in sexual and religious behavior since the 1950s. However, in the United States there is little the government can do to influence sexual and religious behavior and beliefs. That is why I do not think that these changes are political issues, as the religious right does.

Ironically, those who seek to change personal values and behavior through political activism usually think of the economy as a force of nature that is beyond politics.

There is little the government can do to reverse the sexual revolution. There is much the government can do to reverse the growing income gap, and the pauperization of America’s middle class.