There also another factor to consider: the Ukranian government may have shot down the airliner in the first place. After all they still haven’t released the Air Traffic Control data and it was their offensive which caused the international investigators to pull out after the rebels had given them access earlier on.
Uh…seriously?
Anyway, it seems that there are people from Europe and Australia at the crash site and some of the remains have already begun to be collected and shipped back to the Netherlands (from CNN…warning launches a video that might not be pleasant for some to watch).
From what I can tell, it seems the team actually does have some military escort with them btw…but no ninja parachuters or anything like that. Also no confrontation with Russia seems to be pending over this.
Thanks for the interesting feedback. My point of perspective was from an assumption that the rebels wouldn’t stand a chance against a 1st world military, and that the Ukrainians and Russians would recognize the legitimate interests of the Dutch and steer clear. The consensus here seems to be that the required force would be substantially larger than I presumed, and that the Dutch may not have the resources to pull it off.
Now, I had thought that the Dutch, being quite small, might need to enlist the aid of some other Nato members (I think politically non-US would be best).
Now I realize that the situation has improved a bit today. When I checked BBC this morning I saw that the investigators were getting in. So that’s good.
But, if the situation hadn’t eased, and access were impaired indefinitely, what could and should the do/have done? On my Indignation-o-meter, getting the bodies out is more important than the investigation, as there are families back home for whom the wait must be agony.
From the first cite (which itself is backed up by nothing):
Really? I think that Russia’s already in the conflict far more than the Ukraine would like. I also don’t think anyone sensible thinks that Russia becoming more involved is likely to bring NATO to the defense of the Ukraine.
I didn’t bother with the second cite after reading that hogwash.
And not starting a war with Russia is more important than either.
I completely agree. I do not want to see a war with Russia.
However, Putin is clearly a bully who is counting on the passive reaction of the world around him. I don’t think that he would go to war over the Dutch extraction of those bodies. I could well be wrong, and I am sure there are professional analysts who would know better than I.
Part of my question was could they do it [the operation] and part was should they, and to me part of that question is whether the Russians would let them get away with it, vs. actually going to war with NATO.
Putin must know that a war with NATO would be disastrous. But it seems his calculations have been correct. The sternly worded letters of protest haven’t hurt too much.
As last I heard, the French are still building him a warship ferchrissakes.
But these last points are a tangent, I must admit, and probably well covered in other threads.
Why exactly would an unauthorized EU force being shot at by Ukrainian rebels be any kind of provocation to war with NATO? Section 5 of the treaty states an attack on a member is an attack on all - it does not state an attack on your troops us an attack on the member state. Russia in the meanwhile would sit back and stoke nationalistic outrage against the bullying West, bolster their claim that they are being systematically surrounded by hostile countries and basically play the martyr. The dead are dead and while their families are distressed I personally can live with that.
Containing Russia and stabilizing the Ukraine (and undermining the Russian near abroad by reducing Russian influence) is a different thread.
Too Busy
Since Germany won the World Cup, the rest of Europe is gearing up for the inevitable invasion.
The second one is arguing (well, JAQing off) that the missile was launched in a false flag operation by “Ukraine and its US allies”. So hogwash seems a bit kind.
This evidence is on par with (actually and to be honest, a bit weaker than) the standard 9/11 Truther drivel. So, I guess that would be a ‘no’…you weren’t serious.
If the Dutch had the strongest military force on the planet they still aren’t going to commit an act of war against a friendly country and antagonize a nuclear power. They aren’t idiots.
To be fair, any time a complex geopolitical imbroglio can be easily framed by one event, open minds should be maintained.
It’s rather like Assad using chemical weapons, knowing it would immediately put the international military powers squarely against him. The question that comes to mind is “who is benefiting from this action?” If it isn’t the one using the chemical weapons, or in this case, blowing up a commercial airliner, then circumspection is necessary.
It may well be that the separatists simply mistook it as a military plane. It may well also be that some random Commie set the Reichstag on fire. You and I may not know for sure, but the beneficiary of events tends to be the one with a hand in it.
Yes (sort of, paras won’t have bigger guns), but there will still be a probability of getting fresher bodies that need to be put into body bags. It’s not a situation where “you should see what the other guy looks like!” sounds like an achievement, plus achieving it would involve something a bit more complex and costly than good CGI.
A few years ago we had a case where a plane carrying Spanish soldiers crashed. The bodies were released to the families ASAP, so ASAP that it has been discovered in some cases they hadn’t been properly identified. The decision had been made that “letting the families get something to bury” was more important than “a proper investigation”. Given how loudly the families howled when the mixup came out, I don’t think it was the right choice. In this case, a proper investigation can save lives, I’d say it’s important.
Are you saying the US and/or Ukraine benefits from shooting this plane down? 
Ukraine certainly would. Geopolitically a case for the USA can be made as well in terms of weakening Russia in Eastern Europe. The USA was certainly up to its elbows in overthrowing the Ukraine govt.
In the end none of us know because none of us have any direct, independently assessed evidence.
On the balance of probabilities I still blame the rebels but in the world of real-politick nothing would cause me to reel back in shock.
I didn’t think there was any doubt who shot the plane down.
Neither you nor I have seen any definitive evidence so there always remains ‘doubt’. We’ve got second hand reports of social media postings, we have Kiev supplied transcripts of alleged conversations, we have claims made by the USA regarding missile tracking and we have assorted unverifiable pictures and witness statements.
But yeah - I’d still bet the house on the rebels even so, on the balance of probabilities (and Putin acting as guilty as sin). It just would not surprise me to be totally wrong. It’s an unpleasant and cynical world.