# Crime rate DOWN DOWN DOWN!!! **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [May 25, 2011, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185 "2011-05-25T18:20:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/21 "2011-05-26T06:02:54Z")
> [@Markxxx](#): > > I’d like to see what they’re basing this on as from other things I’ve read the crime rate has see-sawed back and forth with the economy since the early 80s. Of course it’s completely possible the violent crime rate is at the lowest. I’m pretty sure that the crimerates rising with bad economic times is just a folktale. [You’d be hard pressed to pick out the Recessions in this graph](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Violent_Crime_Rate.jpg). And of course our current record breaking recession has seen no increase in crime. ---
**Author:** ![palacheck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a88e57/32.png) [@palacheck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/palacheck)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 9:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/22 "2011-05-26T09:54:49Z")
I’m not so sure about\*\* Duckster\*\*'s theory. I grew up in a very insular Italian-American community and crimes seemed to be much, much more under reported. Things like vandalism, burglary, and certain kinds of assault would rarely be reported–depending on the seriousness of the crime of course. Maybe that was unusual, I don’t know. And are budgets really being cut across the nation? Seems like a raid on a stash house in the 1970s involved a sledge hammer and a few guys with their service revolvers. Now apparently there’s a decked out SWAT team available at a moment’s notice(the local police don’t look like they’re in need of any more nifty gadgets and equipment either). But I guess if there’s a shortage of police then all of that nice stuff isn’t of much use. My perception may just be due to the staggering amount of COPS-type shows around these days. ---
**Author:** ![Cicero](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cicero/32/3594_2.png) [@Cicero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cicero)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/23 "2011-05-26T11:31:54Z")
I watched a show about Bernard Goetz the other night, and the impression it gave was that crime in New York in the early 80’s was dreadful. From what else has been posted here and what I’ve looked up, crime in that area anyway has decreased. I know it is O/T but why did that happen? ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/24 "2011-05-26T14:30:11Z")
It happened because of the abatement of the crack epidemic. Nobody’s entirely sure how or why that happened, though. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/25 "2011-05-26T14:35:58Z")
> [@Cicero](#): > > I watched a show about Bernard Goetz the other night, and the impression it gave was that crime in New York in the early 80’s was dreadful. From what else has been posted here and what I’ve looked up, crime in that area anyway has decreased. > > I know it is O/T but why did that happen? Crime pretty much everywhere in the US has decreased (see the graph linked in my last post). Theories as to why are pretty thick on the ground, but it wasn’t unique to New York. ---
**Author:** ![tdn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/94ad74/32.png) [@tdn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tdn)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/26 "2011-05-26T15:04:17Z")
> [@friedo](#): > > No it isn’t. That’s absurd. > > Removing graffiti is nice and all as a quality-of-life thing, but it in no way accounts for the _vast_ decrease in violent crime and homicides since the 1990s. The program happens to coincide with the beginning of the crime decrease. Graffiti on subway cars has been a solved problem since 1999 or before, yet the crime rate in NYC has continued to decline sharply over the past 12 years. I’d explain it, but Wiki does a much better job of it. > **[Broken windows theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broken_windows_theory)** > > In criminology, the broken windows theory states that visible signs of crime, antisocial behavior and civil disorder create an urban environment that encourages further crime and disorder, including serious crimes. The theory suggests that policing methods that target minor crimes, such as vandalism, loitering, public drinking and fare evasion, help to create an atmosphere of order and lawfulness. > The theory was introduced in a 1982 article by conservative think tanks social scientists James Q. ... > [@](#): > > The book’s author, George L. Kelling, was hired as a consultant to the New York City Transit Authority in 1985, and measures to test the broken windows theory were implemented by David Gunn. The presence of graffiti was intensively targeted, and the subway system was cleaned from 1984 until 1990. Kelling has also been hired as a consultant to the LAPD and to the Boston PD. > > In 1990, William J. Bratton became head of the New York City Transit Police. Bratton described George L. Kelling as his “intellectual mentor”, and implemented zero tolerance of fare-dodging, easier arrestee processing methods and background checks on all those arrested. Republican Mayor Rudy Giuliani and his police commissioner Howard Safir also adopted the strategy more widely in New York City after Giuliani’s election in 1993, under the rubrics of “zero tolerance” and “quality of life”. > > Thus, Giuliani’s “zero-tolerance” roll out was part of an interlocking set of wider reforms, crucial parts of which had been underway since 1985. Giuliani had the police more strictly enforce the law against subway fare evasion, public drinking, urination, and the “squeegee men” who had been wiping windshields of stopped cars and demanding payment. According to the 2001 study of crime trends in New York by George Kelling and William Sousa,[3] rates of both petty and serious crime fell suddenly and significantly, and continued to drop for the following ten years. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/27 "2011-05-26T15:05:39Z")
Demographics. Most crimes are committed by young men. All those aging, arthritic baby boomers (that comprise a big hunk of the population) aren’t committing too many armed robberies these days. Hence, lower crime rate. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/28 "2011-05-26T15:08:01Z")
Something has to be done about this. Lower crime will end up in job cuts for policemen, prison guards, and all the people who make handcuffs, fingerprint kits, and all the crime related accessories. On top of the that, criminals tend to spend their ill gotten gains within the community. People who now have more non-stolen money will likely spend it on Chinese products, depriving our own communties of needed economic activity. We need a government program to help restore our crime levels. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/29 "2011-05-26T15:19:47Z")
> [@Spoke](#): > > Demographics. Most crimes are committed by young men. All those aging, arthritic baby boomers (that comprise a big hunk of the population) aren’t committing too many armed robberies these days. Hence, lower crime rate. Quoting me in another thread: > [@simplicio](#): > > Here’s [US birthrats by year](http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005067.html). They drop pretty quickly in the mid-60’s on (I presume due to the pills introduction in 1960), but the drop in birthrates doesn’t really scale with the drop in crime twenty years later, when the effect of fewer crime-prone youngsters would presumably be felt. The birthrate drops 10% or less, while the violent crime rate went down about a third. Also, birthrates were pretty level in the first half of the century, so if demographics were the primary driver of crime, you’d expect the 60’s to have a similar rate of crime to previous decades, instead of the rapid climb it in fact showed. ---
**Author:** ![Beware\_of\_Doug](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/278dde/32.png) [@Beware\_of\_Doug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beware_of_Doug)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/30 "2011-05-26T15:28:30Z")
Lower crime rates also tend to have a strangulation effect on culture and the arts. People are way more creative and enjoy more kinds of music, theater, cubs, street life etc., if they see squalor and sense threatening people around. Otherwise they just drive their nice cars, park, go to some trendy bistro with piped-in music, eat, drink wine, and are home in front of the idiot box by 9:30. ---
**Author:** ![QuarkChild](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/c5a1d2/32.png) [@QuarkChild](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuarkChild)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/31 "2011-05-26T15:59:47Z")
I almost started a thread on this topic myself. Here’s a TIME article on the subject: [US Crime Rate Drops](http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1963761-1,00.html) > [@Al\_Bundy](#): > > When the police are not going to come or do anything anyway, people stop reporting. The prosecutor here has threatened not to even bother prosecuting theft and violent crime less than serious battery. People here largely just handle their business and move on. If I lived in Happyville, things would be different. How do you explain the fact that the murder rates have been dropping? Surely you don’t think that _murder_ is underreported? From the article I posted above: “Last year’s murder rate may be the lowest since the mid-1960s, according to preliminary statistics released by the Department of Justice.” Doing some digging, it appears the murder rate was 9.8 per 100,000 people at its peak in the 90s and has dropped to 5.0 per 100,000. Cite: [FBI Report](http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/offenses/violent_crime/murder_homicide.html) Quote from the FBI report: “There were 5.0 murders per 100,000 inhabitants in 2009, an 8.1 percent decrease from the 2008 rate. Compared with the 2005 rate, there was a 12.1 percent decrease in the murder rate; compared with the 2000 rate, a 10.4 percent decrease was recorded.” That’s huge. ---
**Author:** ![gregorio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/fbc32d/32.png) [@gregorio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gregorio)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/32 "2011-05-26T16:09:59Z")
> [@Duckster](#): > > Nope, not being cynical. Just offering a view based upon an actual incident, and the subsequent conversation with the police who showed up (late) only because it was a slow crime day for them. Heh. I wonder why it was slow for them. Could there be a reason? ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/33 "2011-05-26T16:15:02Z")
> [@tdn](#): > > I’d explain it, but Wiki does a much better job of it. > > [Broken windows theory - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broken_windows_theory) That was his explanation, but crime rates also fell in cities not putting these policies into place. I’ll give him that this helped the quality of life in NY (making the life of graffiti short discourages more) but I’m not sure that there is evidence this really affected the crime rate in any significant way. ---
**Author:** ![Double\_Foolscap](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85e7bf/32.png) [@Double\_Foolscap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Double_Foolscap)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/34 "2011-05-26T16:22:35Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#): > > Violent Criminals Underachieving, Reports New Study Recession Update: People Running out of Shit Worth Stealing ---
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/35 "2011-05-26T16:31:27Z")
I blame it on high gas prices. It is a damned shame when criminals can’t even afford to fill up their van anymore to commit robberies or kidnappings. I heard the number of drive by shootings in LA plummeted when gas topped over $4 a gallon. People have even put off joining gangs in the first place because of the gas money commitment leaving them with no plans and no future. So sad. ---
**Author:** ![tdn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/94ad74/32.png) [@tdn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tdn)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/36 "2011-05-26T17:11:21Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > That was his explanation, but crime rates also fell in cities not putting these policies into place. I’ll give him that this helped the quality of life in NY (making the life of graffiti short discourages more) but I’m not sure that there is evidence this really affected the crime rate in any significant way. There are more forces than graffiti cleanup at work, I’m sure. The aging demographic and reduced drug use surely play a part as well. The hypothesis I read said that it was a combination of these factors happening all at the same time. I don’t think anyone really knows, but it makes a lot of sense to me. My own (very weak) hypothesis is that as NYC goes, so goes the rest of the country. ---
**Author:** ![Smeghead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Smeghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smeghead)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/37 "2011-05-26T17:20:48Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#): > > Violent Criminals Underachieving, Reports New Study American Youths Show Increasing Lack of Motivation and Initiative: Video Games to Blame? ---
**Author:** ![friedo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/8edcca/32.png) [@friedo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/friedo)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/38 "2011-05-26T17:51:24Z")
The Broken Windows theory is well-known to be bullshit. ---
**Author:** ![tdn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/94ad74/32.png) [@tdn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tdn)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/39 "2011-05-26T17:52:41Z")
> [@friedo](#): > > The Broken Windows theory is well-known to be bullshit. Well known? Really? This is the first that I’ve heard of it. Do you have a cite? ---
**Author:** ![Dallas\_Jones](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dallas_jones/32/3277_2.png) [@Dallas\_Jones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dallas_Jones)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185/40 "2011-05-26T17:53:41Z")
> [@Palo\_Verde](#): > > “The number of violent crimes in the United States dropped significantly last year, to what appeared to be the lowest rate in nearly 40 years” > > “The odds of being murdered or robbed are now less than half of what they were in the early 1990s” While overall crime rates have indeed fallen, and continue to fall, the part about being murdered depends upon where you are. According to an FBI report issued this Monday 5-23-11, there was a huge jump in murders in the Northeast part of the country. The New York Times is being very disinformative with the article in the OP. Try this report from Reuters: [http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/23/us-usa-crime-idUSTRE74M50O20110523](http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/23/us-usa-crime-idUSTRE74M50O20110523) > [@](#): > > However, there was a large increase in murders in the northeastern part of the United States, soaring 8.3 percent nationwide and a 46 percent jump in Boston alone as murders reached 73, according to the preliminary statistics. > > New York City saw its murder rate go up 13.8 percent after a 10 percent drop in 2009. Newark experienced a 12.5 percent rise in its murder rate, the second year in a row of a double-digit increase. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crime-rate-down-down-down/583185.md?page=3)