# Criteria for a successful Trump administration **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 16, 2017, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349 "2017-01-16T22:28:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2017, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/41 "2017-01-21T06:31:59Z")
Some ideas [here.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=816504) ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2017, 7:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/42 "2017-01-21T07:33:16Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > How many US Presidents have personally affected crude oil prices? > > NONE! • Starting wars in the middle east affects crude oil pricing • changing rules on drilling in Alaska and national parks would effect crude oil pricing • changing policy towards renewables including adding or decreasing subsidies or tax breaks will effect crude oil pricing. • changing policy on fuel efficiency mandates for cars will eventually change crude oil pricing so yeah, actually I’d say every President’s policies have affected crude oil pricing ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2017, 8:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/43 "2017-01-21T08:08:50Z")
> [@snowthx](#): > > Now that Trump is in office, I would like to track his performance based on objective data. For example, as of today, January 20, 2017: > > [snip] > > What are some other objective measures we can watch thru his presidency that would indicate how well he is doing? Well, you’re not being fair to him by judging him on things like employment numbers and stock prices. Let’s rate his performance on the “objective measures” that the American public has rated him by during the primary and general elections. As of today, January 20, 2017: Has pants on right-side-out - Check Appears be wearing shoes - Check Speaks using words - Check No visible sign of drooling - Check Can follow simple commands (e.g. - “Repeat after me”) - Check Let’s be fair and chart his performance by these factors and not by the usual “big-boy president” metrics. Give the guy a break, already. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2017, 9:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/44 "2017-01-21T09:40:23Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > As of today, January 20, 2017: > > Has pants on right-side-out - Check > Appears be wearing shoes - Check > Speaks using words - Check > No visible sign of drooling - Check > Can follow simple commands (e.g. - “Repeat after me”) - Check You’re setting the bar too high. Those are all things he can already do, so there’s really no place to go but down. It’s like you want him to fail. ---
**Author:** ![Dag\_Otto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/439d5e/32.png) [@Dag\_Otto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dag_Otto)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2017, 11:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/45 "2017-01-21T11:41:19Z")
Gangs, drugs, and crime need to be on the list too. ---
**Author:** ![Grim\_Render](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@Grim\_Render](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grim_Render)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2017, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/46 "2017-01-21T12:16:09Z")
> [@snowthx](#): > > As others have said, as long as the statistic is consistent, it is a fair and objective measure. What if he institutes policies that disproportionately benefit long-term unemployed that are not registered? ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2017, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/47 "2017-01-21T14:53:37Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > The unemployment rate is not objective because it conveniently ignores millions who have given up looking for work. this is silly ignorance. the type of unemployment that is measured there is a standard approach in the economic data benchmarking reflecting the econmic reality of the market participation. ---
**Author:** ![Evan\_Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b487fb/32.png) [@Evan\_Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evan_Drake)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2017, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/48 "2017-01-21T15:17:59Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > I would propose in addition to those the following measures from the Human Development Index using by the UN. > > [Specific country data | Human Development Reports](http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/USA) > > Health measures: > > Infants lacking immunization, DTP (% of one-year-olds) 2 > Infants lacking immunization, measles (% of one-year-olds) 9 > > Inequality measures: > > Inequality-adjusted HDI (IHDI) 0.76 > Coefficient of human inequality 15.7 > Income inequality, Gini coefficient 41.1 > Income inequality, Palma ratio 2 > Income inequality, Quintile ratio 9.8 > Inequality in education (%) 5.3 > Inequality in income (%) 35.6 > Inequality in life expectancy (%) 6.2 > Inequality-adjusted education index 0.842 > Inequality-adjusted income index 0.61 > Inequality-adjusted life expectancy index 0.853 > > Gender measures: > > Gender Inequality Index (GII) 0.28 > > Human Security: > > Homicide rate (per 100,000 people) 4.7 > Birth registration (% under age five) 100 > Old age pension recipients (% of statutory pension age population) 92.5 > Prison population (per 100,000 people) 716 > Suicide rate, female (per 100,000 people) 5.2 > Suicide rate, male (per 100,000 people) 19.4 > > Environmental Sustainability: > > Carbon dioxide emissions per capita (tonnes) 17 > Electrification rate, rural (% of rural population) 100 > Forest area (% of total land area) 33.3 > Fresh water withdrawals (% of total renewable water resources) 15.5 > Impact of natural disasters, population affected (average annual per million people) 5,073.9 > Natural resource depletion (% of GNI) 1 > Population living on degraded land (%) 1.1 > Primary energy supply, fossil fuels (% of total) 83.6 How did old Obama do on all this stuff ? Or Bush ? or Nixon ? ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2017, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/49 "2017-01-21T16:36:15Z")
> [@Evan\_Drake](#): > > How did old Obama do on all this stuff ? Or Bush ? or Nixon ? That’s a good but tricky question to answer. For Nixon it would be near impossible to say as many of these studies don’t go back to his presidency. To really understand these indices you need to dig into the underlying data. Since USA has such high HDI values the overall indices don’t change that much but to answer you question, the overall HDI of the USA has continued to climb slowly during Obama. I don’t think it would be fair to Trump to expect a sudden massive spike upwards, the USA already scores very high; however, such a spike would be very noticeable. A decrease in HDI would be one the first (if not the first) in the history of these reports dating back to 1984. It would be very noticeable. If we take a specific measurement such as income inequality for example, during Obama’s presidency it rose. But it didn’t rise as much as it did during Bush II. It fell during Clinton. Jumped up and down during Bush I. And had been pretty steady going back to 1984. In particular right now, the USA performs not so well in the S90/10 percentile split, which is defined as “The S90/S10 ratio is the share of all income received by the top decile divided by the share of the first, or the ratio of the average income of the top decile to that of the first.” or the S80/20 percentile split. So ideally during Trump we should see a decrease in inequality or at least a decrease in the rate of climb. In particular if Trump is really going to help the little guy we should see an improvement in S90/10 and S80/20. If Trump helps the middle class we should see an improvement in the S50/10, which has been steady for quite some time. If Trump’s policy are status quo we should see the rate of climb stay steady. If his policy are pro-wealthy then we should see an increase in the rate of climb. If people pick a few indicators I will be more than happy to dig through the data and publish it every year. I can’t do all of the indicators. I already intend to track inequality measures (especially income) and metrics on pollution. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2017, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/50 "2017-01-21T17:39:00Z")
Merged thread from Elections starting at post #32. [/ moderating] ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2017, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/51 "2017-01-21T18:02:11Z")
On further though, I think I’m done with Trump threads. He’s not my president (I can say it literally). Too depressing. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2017, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/52 "2017-01-21T19:00:10Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > If people pick a few indicators I will be more than happy to dig through the data and publish it every year. I can’t do all of the indicators. I’d suggest the indicators Trump campaigned most heavily on, which seemed to me to be: 1. Jobs 2. Illegal immigration 3. Crime/terrorism 4. Governmental corruption 5. Health care insurance The rest falls under the general umbrella of making America great again, I guess. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2017, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/53 "2017-01-22T07:02:12Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > • Starting wars in the middle east affects crude oil pricing > • changing rules on drilling in Alaska and national parks would effect crude oil pricing > • changing policy towards renewables including adding or decreasing subsidies or tax breaks will effect crude oil pricing. > • changing policy on fuel efficiency mandates for cars will eventually change crude oil pricing > > so yeah, actually I’d say every President’s policies have affected crude oil pricing Thanks for reading. Try again. Jesus fuck, what a consort. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2017, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/54 "2017-01-22T18:16:16Z")
> [@Evan\_Drake](#): > > How did old Obama do on all [Human Development Index] stuff ? Or Bush ? or Nixon ? Looking at the website, there is only data for selected years. The closest you can get to values for Bush43 and Obama: U.S. Human Development Index (HDI) 2000: 0.883 2010: 0.909 2014: 0.915 I take this to mean a steady but slowing improvement over the Bush43/Obama years. I guess this could be the index for the U.S. leveling off. If it goes _down_ in the next four years, I’d be concerned. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2017, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/55 "2017-01-22T18:22:09Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > Thanks for reading. Try again. Jesus fuck, what a consort. I don’t understand your objection. Sure, the president _personally_ has very little effect on the economy, but he can put policies in place and deploy the U.S. military in ways that can have significant effects. You’re now changing from an anti-Keystone president to a pro-Keystone president, for example. Is that likely to affect oil prices? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2018, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/56 "2018-01-02T23:57:58Z")
We’re basically a quarter of the way through Trump’s first term, or at least a quarter of the way until voters render a verdict in November 2020, so it seems like an appropriate time to revisit this thread. Looking back through the thread, I found this post with some handy links and easily-verifiable criteria to make life simple (ETA: certainly, many other posters suggested other useful criteria for evaluation too): > [@snowthx](#): > > Now that Trump is in office, I would like to track his performance based on objective data. For example, as of today, January 20, 2017: > > - Dow: 19,827 > - S&P 500: 2,271 > - Nasdaq: 5,555 > - Crude Oil: 53.24 > - Gold: 1,213.50 > - [Unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf) (thru Dec 2016): 4.7% > - [National Debt](http://www.usdebtclock.org/): $19,962,092,000,000 > - Debt per Citizen: $61,364 > - Debt per Taxpayer: $166,773 > - [Uninsured Rate](http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/07/obamacare-pushes-nations-health-uninsured-rate-to-record-low.html) (Health Insurance): 8.6% > - [GDP Growth Rate](http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth): 3.5% > - [Inflation Rate](http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates): 2.1% > - [Federal Deficit](https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/mthTreasStmt/mts0916.pdf): $587B > > What are some other objective measures we can watch thru his presidency that would indicate how well he is doing? For comparison, today: - Dow: 24,776 - S&P 500: 2,693 - Nasdaq: 6,513 - Crude Oil: (I don’t know what the original was looking at, but …) [https://oilprice.com/](https://oilprice.com/) says WTI Crude (the first one listed) is a $60.44 - Gold: $1,308.80 - [Unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf) (thru Nov 2017): 4.1% - [National Debt](http://www.usdebtclock.org/): $20,598,778,000,000 - Debt per Citizen: $62,998 - Debt per Taxpayer: $170,334 - Uninsured Rate (Health Insurance): ??? (doesn’t look like there’s a 2017 report available, at least yet) - [GDP Growth Rate](http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth): 3.2% in 2017 Q3 (frankly, I’m not sure where the original 3.5% came from, I can’t find where at that link a “3.5%” appears, and I’m sure there would be plenty of quibbling about how to fairly score Trump’s first few quarters vs the Obama years) - [Inflation Rate](http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates): 2.2% - [Federal Deficit](https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/mthTreasStmt/mts0917.pdf): $666B ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2018, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349/57 "2018-01-03T00:03:35Z")
If Trump gets re-elected, he will be viewed as a success. Not, and he’ll be considered an epic failure. By and large, presidents who are reelected are considered successes. Carters and Bush Sr.'s are viewed as failures. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/criteria-for-a-successful-trump-administration/777349.md?page=2)