# Crystal Ball: COVID a year/two years from now after 40-50% of USA vaccinated **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [December 9, 2020, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652 "2020-12-09T16:33:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2020, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/41 "2020-12-10T12:45:32Z")
I was literally thinking of starting almost exactly this same thread. When I thought about writing it, I would have written it just like you did and predict that people would be wearing masks. I think I was thinking optimistically that people would be considerate of others and people would just uniformly comply. But when I’m reading it from this side, I’m a lot less optimistic. It took a LOT for people to start wearing masks. Even with the death rate as high as it is, some people are refusing. It will vary a lot based on where people live, whether it’s rural or urban, red area or blue. I think most people will go back to how they were behaving in 2019 fairly soon, maybe as soon as spring of 2021 at the first sign of warmer weather in the US, even if the case rate is still high. Caring only lasts so long. I’m reminded of the time after 9/11 when people were caring about each other. That only lasted a few months. I think this will be the same, sadly so. I hope I’m wrong about this. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2020, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/42 "2020-12-10T13:14:54Z")
I think Covid-19 will have shifted from major pandemic to background endemic by fall of 2021. My guess is that the sort of people who won’t take the vaccine are also the sort of people who don’t wear masks and are likely to be among those who will develop or have already developed immunity the “old fashioned” way. The vaccines (all of them) will likely be the sort of thing that needs to be updated yearly, like a flu shot. The mandatory aspects of mask wearing will likely be gone by then as well, but many of us will continue to use them. September 2021 will be more like September 2019 than September 2020. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2020, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/43 "2020-12-10T14:45:18Z")
Well, I’m not sure we have the cost-benefit of various measures that dialed in. I mean, obviously we have to open bars first, but what next? 😘🍸 ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2020, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/44 "2020-12-10T14:54:40Z")
> **[AP-NORC poll: Only half in US want shots as vaccine nears](https://apnews.com/article/ap-norc-poll-us-half-want-vaccine-shots-4d98dbfc0a64d60d52ac84c3065dac55)** > > WASHINGTON (AP) — As states frantically prepare to begin months of vaccinations that could end the pandemic, a new poll finds only about half of Americans are ready to roll up their sleeves when their turn comes. > … > The survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows about a quarter of U.S. adults aren’t sure if they want to get vaccinated against the coronavirus. Roughly another quarter say they won’t. > > Many on the fence have safety concerns and want to watch how the initial rollout fares — skepticism that could hinder the campaign against the scourge that has killed nearly 290,000 Americans. Experts estimate **at least 70% of the U.S. population** needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, or the point at which enough people are protected that the virus can be held in check. > … My bold. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2020, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/45 "2020-12-10T14:59:22Z")
You should have also bolded the word “estimate”, istm. Regardless, the biggest concern is people in nursing homes and they’ll mostly take it. They get a handful of pills every morning anyways so I’m not worried about anti-vaxxers there. A lot of people who are saying they don’t want to take the vaccine just don’t want to be first in line, they’re not against vaccines in general. After they see it didn’t kill grandma, most will get onboard. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2020, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/46 "2020-12-10T15:13:27Z")
I think I’ve said this already in another thread, but it probably bears repeating: A lot of the time, survey answers are posturing – what people are really expressing with their “I wouldn’t take a vaccine” statement might be anything from “I don’t trust Donald Trump” to “Those liberals can’t tell me what to do” (weirdly, this particular historical moment and situation lends itself to posturing from _both_ sides of the political spectrum). And even for people who are being completely honest in answering the survey, what they _think_ they will do in the future may be different from what they _actually_ end up doing. In all probability, if you have to show proof of vaccination to enroll in college, board a plane, or attend a sporting event, most people will get vaccinated. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2020, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/47 "2020-12-10T15:18:41Z")
I’m sure there’s lots of that but it isn’t irrational to be worried about some brand new drug that uses DNA insertion. That’s a little freaky. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2020, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/48 "2020-12-10T16:15:09Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > > Many on the fence have safety concerns and want to watch how the initial rollout fares — skepticism that could hinder the campaign against the scourge that has killed nearly 290,000 Americans. Experts estimate **at least 70% of the U.S. population** needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, or the point at which enough people are protected that the virus can be held in check. > > … > > My bold. Remember that many people will/already have developed immunity the “natural way”, and many authorities have already stated the infection rate today is probably on the order of ~10x the number reported thru testing results. I am not an expert, but ISTM the combination of vaccines and getting immunity naturally could bring us to herd immunity, without needing to rely solely on vaccines to get everyone. I am being optimistic here, but that makes sense to me, at least. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2020, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/49 "2020-12-10T16:38:20Z")
I really don’t think that’s overly optimistic. Up to this point, reinfection seems rare. There will be a decent base of naturally built immunity that we can mostly only guess at but doesn’t seem included in that “expert estimate”. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2020, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/50 "2020-12-10T17:02:45Z")
If available vaccines live up to their early effectiveness figures and serious side effects are rare, I expect we’ll see up to 70% or so of the U.S. population getting vaccinated, especially if vaccination is required to work in jobs dealing directly with the public and to travel. Mask-wearing will continue fairly long-term, particularly among older people and those with pre-existing conditions that render them more susceptible to infectious/serious complications from Covid-19. Protection for those folks will depend in part on herd immunity being achieved in the population as a whole (it’s a myth in general that all you have to do to be protected from infectious disease is get vaccinated yourself; even if the vaccine works very well, there’s a significant percentage who for whatever reason don’t mount a good enough immune response). ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2020, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/51 "2020-12-10T17:59:44Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Just a few million vaccinations in this country would be… Well, not enough to end the pandemic, but enough to make it a lot less of an issue. I think this is a gross underestimate unless your definition of a few (I tend to think 3 or 4) is vastly different from mine. There are for example close to 50 million people over age 65 in this country. That’s without even going into non-age related co-morbidities. If you’re over 65 and unvaccinated in the future you’re going to be playing with fire - that’s roughly where the mortality curve starts deflecting upwards like a rocket. That’s conservative. If you’re over 50, which is over a third of the US population including me, you damn well better be getting your vaccine as well. Because while the mortality rate may be far lower than your elders it is still in that uncomfortable range where it is fair bit higher than your juniors. Personally I’ll not be sitting in a restaurant until I’ve had my series of shots at a bare minimum. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2020, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/52 "2020-12-10T20:53:26Z")
I’ll get the shots, and I am glad I’m not in the first group. I’m generally not an early adopter; I want to see the community-level side effects. I’m also able to work from home through at least June, and I don’t have kids, so it’s less urgent to treat me first. Depending how a poll or survey asked the question, I might look like I’m saying I won’t vax, when what I’m in fact saying is “I have no need to vax first” and “if there are important side effects for Pfizer’s product, I might wait to see what Moderna’s got going.” ---
**Author:** ![C3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/c3/32/3108_2.png) [@C3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/C3)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2020, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/53 "2020-12-10T22:50:27Z")
Remember, when you’re talking about percentages of a population that need to be immunized, that we don’t know when kids will be able to get the shot. I’ve had trouble finding an exact age, but either under 18s or under 16s will be waiting until at least the fall before a vaccine is released for them. They may not be likely to get a serious case of the disease, but they’ll still be un-vaccinated and possibly contagious humans mixing with other people. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2020, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/54 "2020-12-11T02:25:30Z")
I agree with your numbers and that \>50 is a reasonable age to get a little more nervous. I just can’t muster it for long at 51. I suffer very little effects from any bug I get. Even when I got mono, I was totally milking it. For 8 months now of daily checks my temperature has been 36.1-36.7 I know I’m not invulnerable intellectually but my entire life has taught me that this thing won’t kill me. Lol. Weird to actually type that out. ---
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2020, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/55 "2020-12-11T02:51:21Z")
I think with the vaccine and better treatments it will fade into into the background of cold/flu type of winter diseases. I also see that this vaccine could help speed a new type of vaccinations in all categories of viral infections. I do hope and pray we shift to a more aware society not to work while contagious, don’t send kids to school when they are sick, and remote schooling remains a option. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2020, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/56 "2020-12-25T13:00:03Z")
Thought I’d give this a bump and see if anyone’s thinking has changed since the last reply two weeks ago, given that vaccinations are now happening. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2020, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/57 "2020-12-25T19:46:40Z")
> [@Acierocolotl](#): > > I expect some businesses will allow people to enter unmasked, but will require proof of vaccination, in the form of an issued card of some sort. > [@snowthx](#): > > but you may have to show some proof (card, phone app, etc.) that you were vaccinated for COVID (and even better for other vaccines). If this legislator has his way, not in Florida they won’t. I give you: [Senate Bill 364 - Discrimination on the Basis of Personal Health Information](https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2021/364) > [@](#): > > Prohibiting business and governmental entities that require individuals to present driver licenses and identification cards for specified purposes from taking certain actions on the basis of individuals’ vaccination status and proof of immunity from any virus; prohibiting public accommodations from discriminating against individuals on the basis of vaccination or immunity status, etc. I’m wondering if this is some sort of ALEC bill and you’ll see it (or variations thereof) in lots of red states. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2020, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/58 "2020-12-30T00:59:40Z")
> **[Where Year Two of the Pandemic Will Take Us](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/12/pandemic-year-two/617528/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%2BTheAtlantic%2B%28The%2BAtlantic%2B-%2BMaster%2BFeed%29)** > > As vaccines roll out, the U.S. will face a choice about what to learn and what to forget. > … > Many of the 30 epidemiologists, physicians, immunologists, sociologists, and historians whom I interviewed for this piece are cautiously optimistic that the U.S. is headed for a better summer. But they emphasized that such a world, though plausible, is not inevitable. Its realization hinges on successfully executing the most complicated vaccination program in U.S. history, on persuading a frayed and fractured nation to continue using masks and avoiding indoor crowds, on countering the growing quagmire of misinformation, and on successfully monitoring and countering [changes in the virus itself](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/23/travel-bans-effective-new-covid-variant?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other). “Think about next summer as a marker for when we might be able to breathe again,” said Loyce Pace, the executive director of a nonprofit called the Global Health Council and a member of Biden’s COVID-19 task force. “But there’s almost a year’s worth of work that needs to happen in those six months.” > > The pandemic will end not with a declaration, but with a long, protracted exhalation. Even if everything goes according to plan, which is a significant if, the horrors of 2020 will leave lasting legacies. A pummeled health-care system will be reeling, short-staffed, and facing new surges of people with [long-haul symptoms](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/) or mental-health problems. Social gaps that were widened will be further torn apart. Grief will turn into trauma. And a nation that has begun to return to normal will have to decide whether to remember that normal led to this. > … \<_Insert 6,000-word article with detailed analysis of all areas of American life affected by COVID._\> > … > To truly prepare itself against the next pandemic, the U.S. has to reimagine what preparedness looks like. Every epidemic is different, as new pathogens with unique characteristics emerge from different regions. But those pathogens eventually test the same health systems and expose the same historical inequities. Think of epidemics as a million rivers that must all flow through the same lake. The U.S. has been trying to dam the rivers. It has to focus on the lake. > > It must reverse the decades-long underfunding of public health. It should invest in policies such as paid sick leave, affordable child care, and [reparations](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026170) that would narrow the old inequities that make some Americans more susceptible than others to new diseases. > … > There is a likely future in which America’s immune system learns lessons from COVID-19 but its collective consciousness does not. Indeed, the U.S. has a long history of [plastering over social problems with technological fixes](https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.5325/utopianstudies.28.2.0231?seq=1). > … ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2020, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/59 "2020-12-30T02:08:37Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > My guess is that by June or July of 2021 people will be acting pretty much as they did in June of 2019. I hope you are correct. But so far, no way: [Coronavirus vaccinations are off to a very slow start](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/12/29/covid-19-vaccine-distribution-slow-testing/) > [@](#): > > Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses. Eighty percent of the American population is around 264 million people, so we need to administer 528 million doses to achieve herd immunity. > > At the current rate, it would take the United States approximately 10 years to reach that level of inoculation. That’s right — 10 years. I am 65 years old and have no place to call for an appointment and no idea where I will go. My mother is 94, nearly housebound, and she and her house-calls-only doc doesn’t know either. Many months were wasted in the U.S. when other countries were building vaccination apps and facilities. Biden is inheriting a mess. This might not be ideal but Is probably a necessity, for the U.S, given the planning failure to date: > **[The FDA Could Double COVID-19 Vaccine Availability Immediately](https://reason.com/2020/12/24/the-fda-could-double-covid-19-vaccine-availability-immediately/)** > > Here's a thought-experiment. What if the results of Johnson & Johnson Phase 3 clinical trial of the company's one-shot adenovirus-vector vaccine… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652.md?page=2)