# Crystal Ball: COVID a year/two years from now after 40-50% of USA vaccinated

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652>\
**Category:** The Quarantine Zone\
**Tags:** covid-quarantine\
**Created:** [December 9, 2020, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652 "2020-12-09T16:33:20Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 20

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\
**Post date:** [December 9, 2020, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652/20 "2020-12-09T18:31:35Z")

</div>

> [@BigT](#):
>
> Having been infected before means little, since natural immunity only lasts months as most. And it’s the ones who get severely sick who get the strongest, longest lasting immunity.

This is not accurate. Studies have shown reinfections to be nearly non-existent and immunity lasting 6+ months after natural infection. I don’t want to hijack this thread, but it’s been discussed numerous places on this board.

See [this thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/have-you-been-tested-for-covid-how-many-times-are-you-getting-tested-regularly/926122/35) posts 34-39 for a brief exchange with citations. [Here is an analysis](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/14/immunity-and-re-infection) of likely situations surrounding the rare events of reinfection. [Here is a link](https://www.nihr.ac.uk/news/t-cell-coronavirus-immunity-present-in-adults-six-months-after-first-infection/26132) to a study suggesting immunity at 6+ months.

---

_[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-ball-covid-a-year-two-years-from-now-after-40-50-of-usa-vaccinated/927652)._