# Crystal balls: Dopers who called the Obama presidency first **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [November 5, 2008, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289 "2008-11-05T16:39:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/1 "2008-11-05T16:39:24Z")
Over in [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=490918) **jjimm** asked when Obama was first mentioned on the SDMB. First reference seems to belong to **dropzone** in a [thread about race](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=4658475&postcount=49) but it’s noteworthy that Obama’s speech at the 2004 Democratic convention started more than a few folk speculating about his political future, and some of them made a few remarks about his character and prospects that look downright prescient in hindsight. [Declaring my own status on political predictions here: I completely missed Obama’s 2004 speech and didn’t notice him until the primaries and thought Clinton was going to pip him at the post. And if you’d asked me in 2004, I’d have bet money that the first black President would be a Republican one. The only non-obvious Obama-related prediction I’ve come remotely close on was that he might split the Nebraska electoral votes and take Omaha, and that’s still in the recount stages. So I can’t get too smug about those who didn’t quite get it right. However…] **Spot on:** > [@Barack Obama - future President?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-future-president/272917/1): > > Does Barack Obama, newly elected Senator for Illinois, represent the future for the Democratic Party? Charismatic and a brilliant public speaker, could he succeed where Gore and Kerry failed in firing the imagination of swing voters in the States? > [@Barack Obama - future President?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-future-president/272917/43): > > That’s what I thought (and I’m sure a lot of Dems did too) when we believed Kerry was going to take the election. But the more I hear about this whole value issues/cultural divide thang, I’m realizing that public image is always going to be the deciding factor for most in this country. I laughed long and hard at Dubya’s good-ol-boy persona in the face of cold facts, but the final appeal was underestimated. > > Which brings me back to Obama. In a sound bite constituancy, the spoils go to the guy that can impart that warm fuzzy feeling during the 30 second clip on the evening news. And this guy can do it. Just look at the national (even international) buzz surrounding him now - based on one speech at the DNC. Obama is the prayed-for triple threat of brains, honest charisma and zero dirt. As long as he can maintain the latter (and I have this gut feeling it won’t be a problem - the guy seems to radiate good hearted charm), I say minimize the damage done by a long Senate career and put him on the ticket in 2008. Hell, put him up for President. He’s got a gift for working with and speaking to the public that could be the Democrats’ strongest weapon, and his appeal will cross color lines for all but the most dyed-in-the-wool racists. > [@Barack Obama - future President?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-future-president/272917/29): > > […] But as to his appeal to Whites … the blatant racists are never gonna vote Democratic. Then there is the rest of us White folk. We are uncomfortable with a Sharpton or a Jackson. Even if we agreed with the message, they are “too Black” for our comfort. We want to vote blind to skin color, but still want to vote for someone who we percieve as “of us” rather than shouting out “other”. We want someone who we admire and who we feel shares ours cultural values and history. Someone who can inspire. Someone who can lead us where we didn’t know we wanted to go until they pointed it out to us and then of course that was where we wanted to be all along. Obama may be a person like that. He is not a “Black Leader” in the preacher tradition. He instead is the classic American success story. A child of humble beginnings, son of an immigrant, succeeding on the basis of superior intellect and hard work. Raised as he was he not only shares much in cultural values with mainstream White America but he can articulate these values in ways that we all understand and identify with. > > As to his appeal to Blacks … well, my impression has always been that most Blacks have cultural values pretty dang similar to us White folks. Even if self appointed leadership doesn’t always articulte them so well. A man of mixed heritage who has embraced the fact that no matter what he will be called “Black” in this country, and succeeds in this society to the level of a Presidential bid? If he articulates positions they like, they’ll vote for him. Maybe even if they disagree with him on some. The strong place his church plays in his life will also play strong to Blacks in the South. > > But this election has us having to question if any Northern Democrat can pull it off, even with a strong appeal to Southern Blacks. He is also unashamedly liberal. I think that this is a plus if he has the ability to get the Middle (that has swung hard to the Right in recent years) to see that this is where they really want to go. The pendulum has to swing back some eventually. A man who has a vision to articulate and does so well can take advantage of that moment of turning inertia. > > Short version. Let’s see what he does in the Senate for a few years and then judge him. > [@Let's discuss the Democratic Convention!](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-discuss-the-democratic-convention/257036/53): > > Obama was electrifying. He WILL be president someday, mark my words. > [@Barack Obama](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama/257207/63): > > […] > > This man is damn impressive, and would be regardless of his skin color, and regardless of what _you_ think of Jackson and Sharpton. His oratory, the strength of his ideas, his intellect, the rightness of his idealism: all are on the highest level. That combination will win him a lot of support, regardless of skin. He has mine from that one speech alone. A man to watch. > > […] > > Maybe the debate is, is there a reasonably good chance that Obama could become a leader of National significance in the near future? > > If Bush returns to office (God help us), I’d throw my support behind Obama for 2008. Sorry, Hillary, but you’re too polarizing. **Close but no cigar:** > [@Barack Obama - future President?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-future-president/272917/16): > > I think a Hillary Clinton/Barak Obama ticket would be a sure winner. Unlike Kerry, HC has been a super-hawk all the way. I’d pay money to watch either of them speak. I think Obama would need to be VP because of his relative age and inexperience. > [@Barack Obama](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama/257207/1): > > Was that speech something, or what? You think Clinton was good last night, you shoulda heard this kid. > > I think we were just watching the ~46th President of the United States. > > Wow. **Sorry - thanks for playing!** > [@Obama for President!](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-for-president/257217/22): > > […]I don’t think he gave a bad speech, I was just pointing out that the overwhelming number of people who posted before me, a large majority made ‘presidential’ comments ith knowing very little about him. Maybe my knee condition caused me to misread the following: > > Kalhoun: “I think he’s great. I’d like to see him **go for it in 2012** or 2016. I really think he’d have a chance, too”. > _In a presidential run or in the Olympics?_ > > choie: “God willing – **a future presidential candidate** ”. > _I thought we were supposed to be taking God out of politics_ > > Eva Luna: “Hell, I could get excited about voting for him, and the last person I could have gotten excited about voting for was Jimmy Cater…Obama kicked butt tonight. I could totally **see him in the White House someday** ”. > _As a chef?_ > > Knorf: "…As my friend Tim put it, “he obviously asserted himself as a **national political leader** , primarily on the basis of his ability to transcend politics through his ideas.” > > kunilou: “…Keep an eye on this guy. If he can have that kind of effect on my daughter, **he’s going places** ”. > > yellowval: “…I’m way more excited about him than I am about Kerry or Edwards…” > > DMark: “I would not at all be surprised to see his name mentioned for a future run at the **office of President**!” > > With the exception of a couple wise cracks and an assination prediction, the tone here sounded hauntingly familiar to when Gov. Cuomo (as lousy executive - but at least with a record and experience) floored them. > [@Barack Obama - future President?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-future-president/272917/31): > > Yeah, nominate two Senators, one from the Northeast\*, the othe a one-termer. That’ll surely win the election!! > > Obama would add absolutely nothing to a Democratic ticket. I won’t even get into the Hillary situation. > > \*not born there, but she’s there now. \*[\*_N.B. \*\* Though **John Mace** is talking about a Clinton-Obama ticket, Biden is from Delaware - not quite “Northeast” but close enough]_ > [@Barack Obama - future President?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama-future-president/272917/46): > > He’s a senator. Strike one. > > From a state that’s already solidly dem. Strike two. > > He’s being anointed with this can’t-miss messianic crap way too early. It makes him a political target for the GOP, and burdens normal development. Just because you have a top prospect doesn’t mean you stick him in the lineup. Strike three. > > If you’re looking for near-term African American candidates, Harold Ford’s a better choice. > [@Barack Obama](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama/257207/43): > > Obama won’t run for Pres in '08 - the Dems will be running Kerry for re-election that year. Maybe in 2012. And that will give Obama some time to establish himself as a Senator. > > I’m a conservative Texan, and I just don’t see any way in hell that Bush can win this year. And I’m OK with that, as long as there’s a Republican congress. > [@Barack Obama](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama/257207/16): > > I think Jeb Bush is going to be a serious Republican candidate in 2008. **And finally…** > [@Barack Obama](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama/257207/51): > > > [@Obama](#): > > > > It’s that fundamental belief – I am my brother’s keeper, I am my sisters’ keeper – that makes this country work. It’s what allows us to pursue our individual dreams, yet still come together as a single American family. “E pluribus unum.” Out of many, one. > > How long 'til the Republicans brand him as a commie? 😉 About four years, apparently. :rolleyes: > [@Barack Obama](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama/257207/39): > > [hijack] > > '08 Republican Presidential Ad: > > (two overweight middle-aged white midwestern types sitting on a porch) > > male: “Barack Osama? Bin Laden Obama?” > > female: “Isn’t he that terrorist guy?” > > announcer: “It’s just a few letters’ difference. Is that enough?” > > [/hijack] ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/2 "2008-11-05T16:47:43Z")
At the time, I posted that he’d made a remarkable speech and had big potential, but should stay in the Senate for a term or so, and then run for Governor of Illinois to build up his resume. I said he could still run in 2016 or 2020. He said at first he wouldn’t run this year, but ultimately he realized something I didn’t - this was his moment, and it would be stupid to pass that up because it ran contrary to political wisdom. Say what you will about the guy, he seizes opportunities. Once we got to mid-February I thought he was going to win the whole shebang, but props to the Dopers who were way ahead of me and paid attention to their sense instead of common sense. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/3 "2008-11-05T21:08:10Z")
I found a thread from July 2004 where I said the following: “I hadn’t seen him speak before. I was really stunned. He does have a good story, and he managed to make some very lofty remarks sound very sincere. Having seen that, I do think it’s possible he could be President some day.” Not the earliest, but I said that before I said the things I already detailed. ---
**Author:** ![HubZilla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ccd318/32.png) [@HubZilla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HubZilla)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/4 "2008-11-05T21:17:23Z")
From July 2004, during the DNC. Great call, guys! 🙂 > **[Barack Obama](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=268599)** > > Was that speech something, or what? You think Clinton was good last night, you shoulda heard this kid. I think we were just watching the ~46th President of the United States. Wow. Anybody got a transcript yet? Here’s a quote ganked from Atrios: > [@Barack Obama](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/barack-obama/257207/1): > > Was that speech something, or what? You think Clinton was good last night, you shoulda heard this kid. > > I think we were just watching the ~46th President of the United States. > > Wow. > > Anybody got a transcript yet? Here’s a quote ganked from Atrios: > **[Obama for President!](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=268610)** > > I might be a bit biased, as I worked on Barak Obama’s primary campaign, but I think this guy has enough charisma, intelligence, charm, and political know-how to someday make it to the White House-- if voters can get over his very ethnic name. ... > [@Obama for President!](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-for-president/257217/1): > > I might be a bit biased, as I worked on Barak Obama’s primary campaign, but I think this guy has enough charisma, intelligence, charm, and political know-how to someday make it to the White House-- if voters can get over his very ethnic name. > > Obama’s speech tonight was absolutely on the mark…too bad no one saw it. Stupid networks. > > Happy These two threads got me to pay attention to this guy with a funny name. Of course, it was later all over the newspapers since he has Hawaii roots. Good call, guys! ---
**Author:** ![Duke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e8c25b/32.png) [@Duke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duke)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/5 "2008-11-05T21:21:12Z")
In November 2004 I predicted presidential tickets featuring Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008. Well, not exactly the way it turned out, [but still, Obama and McCain were there](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=5448520&highlight=obama#post5448520). ---
**Author:** ![Inigo\_Montoya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inigo_montoya/32/124_2.png) [@Inigo\_Montoya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inigo_Montoya)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/6 "2008-11-05T21:24:04Z")
Thanks for this thread. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2008, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/7 "2008-11-05T21:34:25Z")
Merged **Gyrate** and **HubZilla** ’s topics because of their similar theme. ---
**Author:** ![DJ\_Motorbike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90ced4/32.png) [@DJ\_Motorbike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DJ_Motorbike)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/8 "2008-11-06T03:12:12Z")
I posted on a different board after having heard Obama’s 04 convention speech that I thought he would be president one day. Now I wish I had done that here and gotten praise for my prescience. Oh well. I voted for McCain. Obama is my president. I am not disappointed. Hail to the Chief! ---
**Author:** ![Rich\_Mann](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ce73a5/32.png) [@Rich\_Mann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rich_Mann)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 10:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/9 "2008-11-06T10:44:32Z")
I’m not sure if this constitutes a hijack, but… Sometime last year (no, I won’t search for it because, even if it wasn’t embarrassing, I’m just too lazy) I posted something about how I thought that the Democratic Party would nominate another old white guy because it was the safe thing to do and that I would settle for him as the lesser of two evils. I have never been so glad to be shown wrong! ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2008, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/10 "2008-11-06T20:22:06Z")
Given your verdict on **Diogenes** , I think you need to promote **RTFirefly** to spot on. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2008, 9:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/11 "2008-11-07T09:17:24Z")
In June 2006, I predicted that Obama would be elected President – in 2016. See post #3: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=375205&highlight="President+Obama"](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=375205&highlight=%22President+Obama%22) Then again, I also predicted a McCain victory in 2008. The post was ironic, but I truly believed that Obama had a good shot at the Presidency, though his early run was unexpected. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2008, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/12 "2008-11-07T17:56:02Z")
Post deleted because I saw that MforM beat me by 20 days. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2008, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/13 "2008-11-08T05:31:01Z")
Aw c’mon **dropzone** , fess up! It’s fun to revisit old predictions. Besides, I was beat by the OP posters by 2 years. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2008, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/14 "2008-11-08T15:13:32Z")
Having worked hardcore on his campaign with the likes of **Shayna** and others here - I’ll admit I didn’t post about Obama back in 2004. But I was part of the Great SDMB Mass Exodus to Obama back when he declared his candidacy in Springfield. And have been an ardent supporter/camaigner ever since. Stoking the fires when people got sad that he may not beat Hillary, looking back, Hillary had zero chance. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/15 "2008-11-18T14:27:49Z")
I nominate **blowero** as our official board soothsayer. Is he still active? ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2008, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/crystal-balls-dopers-who-called-the-obama-presidency-first/471289/16 "2008-11-18T15:01:45Z")
I just want to say, for the record, that I’m happy that I don’t have crystal balls.