# Cuba - what happens after Castro dies? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 9, 2006, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996 "2006-06-09T01:14:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/41 "2006-06-14T15:43:14Z")
[QUOTE=kurahee] Do any of you see the expatriated Cubans living in southern Florida going back after Castro dies to return to their homeland (or help liberate it)? Or will these people want to get their families out? I see Cuba having a difficult time transitioning into a democracy of some kind if Castro’s regime has everything in place to keep the machine rolling. I’m wondering if different military factions will fight it out, since they have all the weapons? [/QUOTE] Some of the Florida Cubans are descendants of Battista’s elite, and I would be surprised if they didn’t make a serious grab for all the goodies once Cuba opens up. ---
**Author:** ![bayonet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9c0ed/32.png) [@bayonet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bayonet)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/42 "2006-06-14T15:46:11Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Here’s another thing: In Miami, we have a lot of Cuban-Americans. And they **know** a lot about Cuba, and not just from their grandparents’ stories. They follow Cuban events, apparently. Anything important that happens in Cuba is front-page news in the _Miami Herald._ (I formerly lived in Tampa, which has a much older Cuban-American community dating from the early 20th Century, when Tampa had a lot of cigar factories; and they do not seem to pay nearly as much attention to Cuba as the Miami Cubans do.) And a lot of Cuban-Americans are prosperous businesscritters. As soon as it becomes possible to seek business opportunities in Cuba, they’re sure as hell going to try, and, with their knowledge of conditions on the ground, they’ll have a head start on other entrepreneurs. [/QUOTE] I would add to that, not only do Cubans in Miami know a lot about Cuba from local media, a great number of them are fairly recent arrivals from Cuba. I’m looking for a cite with numbers. ---
**Author:** ![bayonet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9c0ed/32.png) [@bayonet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bayonet)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/43 "2006-06-14T15:55:50Z")
Ok, found this in wiki: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=7487162&subscription=0](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=7487162&subscription=0) The numbers in 1000’s for Cubans in the US are: 1970 - 439 1980 - 608 1990 - 737 2000 - 952 ---
**Author:** ![bayonet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9c0ed/32.png) [@bayonet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bayonet)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/44 "2006-06-14T15:58:24Z")
[QUOTE=Evil Captor] Some of the Florida Cubans are descendants of Battista’s elite, and I would be surprised if they didn’t make a serious grab for all the goodies once Cuba opens up. [/QUOTE] Cite? Please? I’ve yet to run across any of these “Batista’s elite”, or their descendants. Are these like the Cuban version of the Elders of Zion? ---
**Author:** ![LonesomePolecat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a88e57/32.png) [@LonesomePolecat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonesomePolecat)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/45 "2006-06-14T18:11:10Z")
[Chevy Chase] And this breaking news just in: Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead. [/Chevy Chase] ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/46 "2006-06-14T18:55:55Z")
[QUOTE=bayonet] Cite? Please? I’ve yet to run across any of these “Batista’s elite”, or their descendants. Are these like the Cuban version of the Elders of Zion? [/QUOTE] Are you sayuing that after the fall of Battista a lot of the people who were on top in Cuban society didn’t head over to Florida? 'Cause that’s what I’ve always heard. And that’s the way this educational site tells it: [When Fidel Castro led his revolutionary army into Havana in January of 1959, he ushered in a new era in Cuban life. He also launched a new era of mass emigration from his country to the United States.](http://memory.loc.gov/learn/features/immig/cuban5.html) ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/47 "2006-06-14T19:03:43Z")
[QUOTE=Evil Captor] Some of the Florida Cubans are descendants of Battista’s elite, and I would be surprised if they didn’t make a serious grab for all the goodies once Cuba opens up. [/QUOTE] How serious? With guns and such? That might end up getting U.N. Peacekeepers involved, trying to keep Cuba from turning into another Somalia. I can see them _buying_ up large chunks of Cuban land, sold by people who, finally given a chance to get the heck outta there, get the heck outta there, but I don’t envision the U.S. casually standing by while a number of citizens become active participants in a civil war that close to U.S. territory. Heck, if it _does_ go Wild West, I can imagine me and a bunch of army buddies, none of whom have _any_ ancestral ties to Cuba, heading down there with a boatload of C7s and C9s and grabbing our own piece of tropical beach property. Lock, load and party! ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/48 "2006-06-14T19:09:52Z")
[QUOTE=Johnny L.A.] Isn’t foreign money already pouring in, and isn’t it already a popular destination for Canadians, Brits, _et al._? It seems to me that we’re missing out on a great opportunity by continuing to allow our foreign policy in Cuba to be dictated by a relatively small special interest group; let alone the opportunity to spread ‘McDonalds Diplomacy’. [/QUOTE] Canada has (among other things) a joint operation nickel plant in El Oriente (near Holguin), but unlike in other countries it’s a fifty-fifty deal. That is to say, the “first world” country doesn’t take all the capital out of the “third world” country; the two countries share the “profits.” So however Raul Castro fares, I’d bet those things will continue, and as noted above, it’s unlikely that rum makers et al will get their interests back. It is indeed an interesting question. The Cubans I’ve talked to (in Cuba, not in Miami) easily recognize the problems and corruption with Castro’s system, but they also recognize that very well indeed that they are not puppets of the U.S. They are politically very astute. On the SDMB we’ve talked about foreign investments before, even from the [U.S.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=364282&highlight=Cuba). But the issue that Cuba will become another Cancun disturbs me, personally. Cancun is soulless, a black hole for U.S. dollars; Cuba has a rich cultural history, especially with its music. And among those who spend in Cuba, don’t leave out the Italians. They’re all over Habana. Everyone thinks I’m Italian when I go there. ---
**Author:** ![bayonet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9c0ed/32.png) [@bayonet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bayonet)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/49 "2006-06-14T19:43:31Z")
[QUOTE=Evil Captor] Are you sayuing that after the fall of Battista a lot of the people who were on top in Cuban society didn’t head over to Florida? 'Cause that’s what I’ve always heard. And that’s the way this educational site tells it: [When Fidel Castro led his revolutionary army into Havana in January of 1959, he ushered in a new era in Cuban life. He also launched a new era of mass emigration from his country to the United States.](http://memory.loc.gov/learn/features/immig/cuban5.html) [/QUOTE] Batista, one t, fell in 1958. What I am saying is that 50 years after the fall of Batista there are not a whole lot of people around not in Century Village or the nearest cemetery who were on top of Cuban society back them. Consequently their ability to influence the future of Cuban life is minimal. Take a look at the migration numbers I posted above, the bulk of the Cuban migration has occured since the 1970’s, by which time there were no Batista supporters alive in Cuba. ---
**Author:** ![bayonet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9c0ed/32.png) [@bayonet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bayonet)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/50 "2006-06-14T19:46:27Z")
[QUOTE=Bryan Ekers] How serious? With guns and such? That might end up getting U.N. Peacekeepers involved, trying to keep Cuba from turning into another Somalia. I can see them _buying_ up large chunks of Cuban land, sold by people who, finally given a chance to get the heck outta there, get the heck outta there, but I don’t envision the U.S. casually standing by while a number of citizens become active participants in a civil war that close to U.S. territory. Heck, if it _does_ go Wild West, I can imagine me and a bunch of army buddies, none of whom have _any_ ancestral ties to Cuba, heading down there with a boatload of C7s and C9s and grabbing our own piece of tropical beach property. Lock, load and party! [/QUOTE] I think Evil Captor is talking about groups like Alpha 66 who were active in the 60’s and 70’s. Those guys are mostly dead. As for people buying property, they would have no one to buy from. No one in Cuba, except the government, holds title to any property. ---
**Author:** ![bayonet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9c0ed/32.png) [@bayonet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bayonet)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/51 "2006-06-14T19:50:38Z")
[QUOTE=guizot] …The Cubans I’ve talked to (in Cuba, not in Miami) easily recognize the problems and corruption with Castro’s system, but they also recognize that very well indeed that they are not puppets of the U.S. They are politically very astute. On the SDMB we’ve talked about foreign investments before, even from the [U.S.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=364282&highlight=Cuba). But the issue that Cuba will become another Cancun disturbs me, personally. Cancun is soulless, a black hole for U.S. dollars; Cuba has a rich cultural history, especially with its music. [/QUOTE] I don’t think we need to worry about Cuban culture surviving the death of Castro, it certainly thrived before he made the scene. As to the point of Cuba nto being the economic pocket of the US, that is an interesting conundrum. The embargo is mostly responsible for keeping the US money out of Cuba, which in turn has created the non-US based economy Cuba has. It would be naive to think that when the embargo is lifted an economy the size of the US would not immediately swallow, for all intents and purposes, the entire Cuban economy. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/52 "2006-06-14T19:53:54Z")
Castro came to power in 1959. Let’s see. That’s, hmm, carry the two, 47 years ago. The very few Batista cronies left are octogenarians. They aren’t going to be leading invasion forces any time soon. Any invasion force would be the sons and grandsons of the Batista cronies. But being the son or grandson of an ex-Batista crony doesn’t exactly make your dreams of a Cuban invasion anything more than hot air. Any half assed “invasion” of Cuba by the sons and grandsons of the Cuban exiles will be foiled by the FBI before it gets beyond barroom bluster. It would have the same chance of success as Vietnamese exiles staging an invasion of Vietnam. Even less, Vietnam fell in 1975, only 31 years ago. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/53 "2006-06-14T20:25:44Z")
[QUOTE=Lemur866] Any half assed “invasion” of Cuba by the sons and grandsons of the Cuban exiles will be foiled by the FBI before it gets beyond barroom bluster. [/QUOTE] Unless it were the CIA organizing it. I know that would be completely insane, but remember what kind of administration we’re living under right now. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/54 "2006-06-14T20:42:39Z")
Except it’s clear that the career CIA people hate the Bush administration, and vice-versa. So if Bush wants to invade Cuba, he’s gonna cut the CIA out of the picture completely. They’ll find out about it when they read about it in the Washington Post. Except Bush isn’t going to send the marines to Cuba, Cheney’s not gonna let him. So since open invasion is out, CIA backed covert invasion is out, where does that leave the grandchildren of the Cuban exiles? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/55 "2006-06-14T20:47:07Z")
[QUOTE=Lemur866] Except Bush isn’t going to send the marines to Cuba, Cheney’s not gonna let him. [/QUOTE] Why not? ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/56 "2006-06-14T21:32:00Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Unless it were the CIA organizing it. I know that would be completely insane, but remember what kind of administration we’re living under right now. [/QUOTE] I don’t think they’d even bother, though your point about the nature of the current administration is well taken. [QUOTE=bayonet] I don’t think we need to worry about Cuban culture surviving the death of Castro, it certainly thrived before he made the scene. As to the point of Cuba nto being the economic pocket of the US, that is an interesting conundrum. The embargo is mostly responsible for keeping the US money out of Cuba, which in turn has created the non-US based economy Cuba has. It would be naive to think that when the embargo is lifted an economy the size of the US would not immediately swallow, for all intents and purposes, the entire Cuban economy. [/QUOTE] Good point, but when I talk about the “Canunization” of of Habana it does not necessarily mean swallowing the culture. I just hate places like Cancun which are not much more than destinations for drunken college student during spring break; if you were Ernest Hemmingway, would _you_ want to live in Cancun?. The point is not that such a change would take away all culture of the place, it just would make it somewhat annoying to go there. In fact, for me, the best thing about going to Cuba is that nobody assumes that I’m from the States, (they always assume I’m Italian), and there are no drunken college students. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/57 "2006-06-14T21:33:05Z")
[QUOTE=bayonet] Batista, one t [/QUOTE] Well, two, actually. 😃 > [@](#): > > As for people buying property, they would have no one to buy from. No one in Cuba, except the government, holds title to any property. Assuming the death of Castro starts a slight lean in the direction of privatization, I expect lots of money (much of which will take the form of bribes of government officials, who I’ll bet will only take U.S. dollars) to pour in. ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/58 "2006-06-14T21:51:32Z")
[QUOTE=mnemosyne] If the population had a choice, they would probably move towards a social democracy - they have a strong attachment to Canada and I think they would try and model themselves after Canada. [/quote] That’s very interesting, something that had never ever occurred to me. There’s a small group of Canadians pining for a tropical territory of some sort, but the place that always gets mentioned is the Turks and Caicos Islands, a UK territory. The UK coyuld just _give_ it to us, with the permission of the inhabitants, and I understand that Nova Scotia has passed a resolution to admit the islands as part of that province, so we wouldn’t even have to mess with the Constitution to add a new province. But Cuba! Canadians have been going down there for years, ever since the Trudeau days. Perhaps we should keep a closer eye on events there. And who knows… maybe someday there will be free passage and transfer of residency, even something like sovereignty-association! 🙂 > [@mnemosyne](#): > > They are an educated population, something like 95% are literate, pretty much everyone has a chance to go to university, but there are just no jobs. The men we were talking to told us one of the bartenders where we were was an engineer, and one of the waitresses had a medical background (but she wasn’t a doctor). I think there’s quite a lot we North Americans could learn from Cuba, especially how to deal with decreasing energy supplies and still keep things going. _Permaculture Activist_ magazine had an article a while back detailing how Cuba dealt with the ending of Soviet subsidy after the Soviet Union collapsed. For example, Cuba started up nationwide localised organic farming and gardening, even in the cities, to replace the imports of oil, food and fertiliser they no longer received from Russia. For a while it was touch and go, and everyone lost weight, but they survived. We may have to deal with something like that if oil supplies are interrupted. Yes, even us in Canada. The East Coast gets its oil by import–it is not connected to the West. Albertan exports pay for the imports. I want to go to Cuba before Castro dies, if only to see what one of the last two places on earth without McDonald’s looks like. And it’s a lot closer and easier for me to get to than North Korea. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![MrSquishy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b9e5f3/32.png) [@MrSquishy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrSquishy)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/59 "2006-06-14T22:07:08Z")
[QUOTE=guizot] …In fact, for me, the best thing about going to Cuba is … there are no drunken college students. [/QUOTE] I take it you haven’t been to Varadero during Canadian spring break! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2006, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996/60 "2006-06-14T22:57:24Z")
[QUOTE=guizot] I just hate places like Cancun which are not much more than destinations for drunken college student during spring break; if you were Ernest Hemmingway, would _you_ want to live in Cancun? [/QUOTE] Would a horny, hard-drinking bastard like Hemingway want to live in a place with a limitless supply of liquor and bikini-clad coeds? Quite a poser . . . I’ll get back to you . . . [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cuba-what-happens-after-castro-dies/359996.md?page=4)