# Cubs win 100th-Is it finally their year? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [September 27, 2016, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050 "2016-09-27T17:31:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2016, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/21 "2016-09-30T23:29:59Z")
Beginning in 2004, the curious trivia fact was: “The last Cubs World Series victory is now closer in time to Napoleon’s march on Moscow [1812] than to the present day.” In 2011, this switched to " closer in time to the battle of Trafalgar [1805] …" If they are not able to win this year, it will be " closer in time to the life of George Washington [1799] …" As amusing as this sequence may be, I’d be happy to see it come to an end. ---
**Author:** ![Mince](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecd19e/32.png) [@Mince](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mince)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/22 "2016-10-02T05:44:09Z")
> [@Xema](#): > > Beginning in 2004, the curious trivia fact was: “The last Cubs World Series victory is now closer in time to Napoleon’s march on Moscow [1812] than to the present day.” > > In 2011, this switched to " closer in time to the battle of Trafalgar [1805] …" > > If they are not able to win this year, it will be " closer in time to the life of George Washington [1799] …" > > As amusing as this sequence may be, I’d be happy to see it come to an end. If they don’t win this year, some day “Big Bang” will be part of this discussion. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/23 "2016-10-02T19:12:43Z")
Game 7 of the World Series Cubs need one more out to win Announcer introduces Steve Bartman … ---
**Author:** ![robardin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/43a26b/32.png) [@robardin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robardin)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/24 "2016-10-02T20:17:40Z")
Unfortunately for the Cubs, it seems having the best record in baseball is significantly NEGATIVELY correlated with winning the World Series. Especially for a NL team. In the 26 completed years of the “Wild Card Era” or “Divisional Series Era” (1995-2015), only 4 times did the team with the best regular season record do so: the 1998 and 2009 Yankees, and the 2007 and 2013 Red Sox. Meanwhile, a Wild Card team has won 6 times in those 26 years: 1997 Marlins, 2002 Angels, 2003 Marlins, 2004 Red Sox, 2011 Cardinals, 2014 Giants. In fact, the team with the most wins in baseball is far more likely to lose in the divisional series - which they almost always play against the Wild Card team (unless tied for the best record in baseball with another team in the same league). In 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007, and 2013, two teams tied for the best record in baseball… So out of 31 teams who could claim to have ended with the best regular season record in baseball in the Divisional Play era, 13 of them (nearly 42%) of them never got past the first round! And the Cubs should know - they themselves (as the WC team) upset the “best team in baseball, with 100 wins”, just LAST YEAR. 1996 Indians (99 wins) - lost in ALDS in 4 games to the Orioles 2000 Giants (97 wins) - lost in NLDS in 4 games to the Mets 2001 Mariners (116 wins) - lost in ALDS in 5 games to the Yankees 2002 Yankees (103 wins) - lost in ALDS in 4 games to the Angels 2002 Athletics (103 wins) - lost in ALDS in 5 games to the Twins 2003 Braves (101 wins) - lost in NLDS in 5 games to the Cubs 2006 Yankees (97 wins) - lost in ALDS to the Tigers in 4 games. 2008 Angels (100 wins) - lost in ALDS to the Red Sox in 4 games 2010 Rays (96 wins) - lost in ALDS to the Rangers in 5 games 2011 Phillies (103 wins) - lost in NLDS to the Cardinals in 5 games 2012 Nationals (98 wins) - lost in NLDS to the Cardinals in 5 games 2014 Angels (98 wins) - lost in ALDS to the Royals in 3 games 2015 Cardinals (100 wins) - lost in NLDS to the Cubs in 4 games ---
**Author:** ![robardin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/43a26b/32.png) [@robardin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robardin)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/25 "2016-10-02T20:26:06Z")
That, by the way, reflects how long the baseball season is: 162 games, where Game #1 counts exactly as much in the win-loss tally as Game #162. Yet Game #162 may not even matter in the standings by the time it is played, while Game #1 may well be played by a roster of players significantly different than the one playing Game #162 - which is what matters going into the playoffs. A team with a small core that “comes together” in August or September, especially one that gets a jolt of productivity from new players acquired in trade, promotion from the minors, returning from the DL, or simply “leveling up” for reasons unknowable, is far more dangerous in short playoff series in October, than a team that is built on depth to weather the ups and downs of a 162 game calendar. ---
**Author:** ![Last\_Glacial\_Maximum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/bc79bd/32.png) [@Last\_Glacial\_Maximum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Last_Glacial_Maximum)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/26 "2016-10-02T20:38:26Z")
Hard to disagree with the facts as presented by robardin… I do have one MINOR quibble: “And the Cubs should know - they themselves (as the WC team) upset the “best team in baseball, with 100 wins”, just LAST YEAR.” Sure the Cubs were a WC team last year {97 wins}. They then beat the Pirates {98 wins} in a WC game. They then they beat the Cardinals {100 wins} in the NLDS. The point I’m making is that {IIRC} the Cubs with 97 wins last year would have made them the champions in every other division of baseball ! They just happened to play in a very competitive NL central… I’m hoping that Maddon’s managerial skills can help the Cubs defy the negative historic odds… . ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/27 "2016-10-02T21:19:11Z")
> [@robardin](#): > > Unfortunately for the Cubs, it seems having the best record in baseball is significantly NEGATIVELY correlated with winning the World Series. Especially for a NL team. > > In the 26 completed years of the “Wild Card Era” or “Divisional Series Era” (1995-2015), only 4 times did the team with the best regular season record do so: the 1998 and 2009 Yankees, and the 2007 and 2013 Red Sox. > > Meanwhile, a Wild Card team has won 6 times in those 26 years: 1997 Marlins, 2002 Angels, 2003 Marlins, 2004 Red Sox, 2011 Cardinals, 2014 Giants. > > In fact, the team with the most wins in baseball is far more likely to lose in the divisional series (I snipped the 13 losses) Note that there are twice as many wild card teams (or, more recently, teams that survive the wild card game) as there are teams with the best record in baseball. 4/26 is still slightly better than 1/8, which is what you would expect if the result was purely random (though as close to 1/8 as you can get with whole numbers), so I wouldn’t go so far as to say there was a NEGATIVE correlation. Likewise, the 13 losses in the divisional series means that (in general) the team with the best record has a 50% chance of winning the first-round season. Which all follows along with the “it’s a crap-shoot” argument. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/28 "2016-10-03T16:10:26Z")
I don’t know if this is good for the Cubs, as it’s a sign of titleless streaks ending, or bad, as all of the “titleless streaks ending” mojo is being used up, but one of Australia’s two major professional football leagues was won by a team that hadn’t won since 1954, and the other was won by a team that has been in the league since 1967 but had never won until now. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/29 "2016-10-03T16:23:57Z")
Perhaps I am the first to notice this but it’s 21 seasons, not 26. 1995 through 2015 is 21 seasons. 4/21 is slightly better than random chance and is itself not much of a data sample. ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/30 "2016-10-03T17:45:28Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Frankly, I really do hope that the Cubs win this year. Why? Because, much like Red Sox fans before 2004, it’s nearly impossible to talk with a Cub fan for more than 2 minutes before they start talking about the WS drought, and the goat curse. If the Cubs win, their fans can finally **shut up about it already**! That is exactly how I felt in 2004. As a non-native, the pre-2004 Red Sox angst was terribly depressing around here. I’ve often contemplated calculating what the probability of a 100 year drought actually is. With 32-ish teams it seems like SOMEONE should have a lengthy drought. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/31 "2016-10-03T18:15:59Z")
> [@sachertorte](#): > > I’ve often contemplated calculating what the probability of a 100 year drought actually is. With 32-ish teams it seems like SOMEONE should have a lengthy drought. However, a drought of more than 55 years is only possible for 16 teams, and there are two (12.5%) with such a drought. A drought of more than 46 years is possible for only 24 teams, and 7 teams, or almost 30%, have such a drought. Four of those teams are in the playoffs as division winners this year. The 10 playoff teams have a cumulative 389 years of drought, or an average of 39 years. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/32 "2016-10-03T19:40:51Z")
The Cubs are doomed, DOOMED I say! Something will happen. Watch and see. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/33 "2016-10-03T19:48:00Z")
> [@Little\_Pig](#): > > The Cubs are doomed, DOOMED I say! Something will happen. Watch and see. A lump of clay and a fresh case of needles have been donated in your name to the Greater New York Institute of Voodoo. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![nightshadea](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/7ba0ec/32.png) [@nightshadea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nightshadea)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/34 "2016-10-03T19:55:11Z")
well if the dodgers lose might as well let the cubs win so they could quit bitching… ---
**Author:** ![Sir\_T-Cups](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ed655f/32.png) [@Sir\_T-Cups](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sir_T-Cups)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/35 "2016-10-03T20:56:30Z")
> [@Little\_Pig](#): > > The Cubs are doomed, DOOMED I say! Something will happen. Watch and see. (Deep Breath) DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO… ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/36 "2016-10-03T23:20:23Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Perhaps I am the first to notice this but it’s 21 seasons, not 26. 1995 through 2015 is 21 seasons. > > 4/21 is slightly better than random chance and is itself not much of a data sample. I think that’s probably 26 total league-leading teams (including teams tied for the league lead). ---
**Author:** ![Last\_Glacial\_Maximum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/bc79bd/32.png) [@Last\_Glacial\_Maximum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Last_Glacial_Maximum)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/37 "2016-10-09T23:17:10Z")
Cubs are up 2-0 in the NLDS. Next up Arietta against Bumgarner Monday in San Francisco… . ---
**Author:** ![russian\_heel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f05b48/32.png) [@russian\_heel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/russian_heel)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2016, 6:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/38 "2016-10-11T06:59:36Z")
Make that 2-1. Only 2 0f the last 22 100+ win teams have won the World Series. Not that Im rooting against the Cubbies but playoff baseball is like playing poker: your hole cards might give you the advantage, but anything goes on the flop! ---
**Author:** ![Amateur\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@Amateur\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amateur_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2016, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/39 "2016-10-11T15:08:31Z")
I went to bed sure that the Giants would be packing their lockers by the time I woke up. Difficult series. I of course want the Jints to do it and extend the even-year cycle… but I’d be truly sorry if they were the ones to send the Cubs home, too. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2016, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050/40 "2016-10-11T16:17:36Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Frankly, I really do hope that the Cubs win this year. Why? Because, much like Red Sox fans before 2004, it’s nearly impossible to talk with a Cub fan for more than 2 minutes before they start talking about the WS drought, and the goat curse. If the Cubs win, their fans can finally **shut up about it already**! The White Sox drought ran two years longer than the Red Sox–their previous WS title was a year earlier, their new one a year later–and you didn’t hear them crying. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cubs-win-100th-is-it-finally-their-year/767050.md?page=3)