# Curious: Who do Dopers think will win the Democrat nomination? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 18, 2003, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438 "2003-09-18T19:01:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2003, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/1 "2003-09-18T19:01:47Z")
I am Curious: Who do Dopers think will win the Democrat nomination? 1. I have no interest in your comparative morality between the Democrat party or canidates between themselves or Pres. Bush. I simply want to know who you think will win the nomination, not the general election. 2. Please, no grandstanding for your canidate. I just want to know who you think will win and why. Inquiring 'Pubbies want to know. šŸ˜‰ ---
**Author:** ![bayonet1976](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/77aa72/32.png) [@bayonet1976](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bayonet1976)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2003, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/2 "2003-09-18T19:27:38Z")
IMO Dean has it sawn up. I was mightily unimpressed with Clarkā€™s speech yesterday declaring his candidacy, and by all accounts Clarkā€™s clout and background were the only thing standing in the way of a Dean nomination. Unless Clark turns out to be a Clinton-like campaigner, and I am almost certain that he is not, his candidacy will die an early death. ---
**Author:** ![Sterra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8c91f0/32.png) [@Sterra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sterra)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2003, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/3 "2003-09-18T19:28:24Z")
Howard Dean Half of the reason he will win is because as a candidate he is quite good. He has a lot of political skill, he is a doctor so he automatically gets a strong plus on healthcare, in his governing of Vermont he is extremely popular. And most of all he doesnā€™t have very many negatives. Overall he is rather centrist while occasionally leaning liberal or leaning conservative. The other half is grassroots. As far as determining politics goes if Dean had nothing, but grassroots he would be a competitive candidate. ---
**Author:** ![MrTuffPaws](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f475e1/32.png) [@MrTuffPaws](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrTuffPaws)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2003, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/4 "2003-09-18T19:31:57Z")
Well, IMO I think it will be between Dean and Clark. I think we will have to see how Clark comes out on the domestic issues, and how well he does in the debates. From what I have seen of him, he seems impressive to the people, but unless he can debate the issues with Dean, Dean will have it in hand. ---
**Author:** ![CyberPundit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/76d3ee/32.png) [@CyberPundit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CyberPundit)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2003, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/5 "2003-09-18T20:29:21Z")
I think Clarkā€™s entry has really thrown the race wide open. I think there is going to be real push by the party establishment to rally around one person to beat Dean. Clark looks very attractive for that purpose because unlike , say, Lieberman he is acceptable to the activist base and he can unite the party more than any other candidate. However Clark has yet to prove himself on the campaign trail. Also the other candidates arenā€™t out of it by any means. Kerry or even Edwards could still surge. So I am totally unsure who is going to win. Dean is probably still the front-runner but with only a small lead and several competitors who could easily beat him. ---
**Author:** ![NaSultainne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/8797f3/32.png) [@NaSultainne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NaSultainne)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2003, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/6 "2003-09-18T20:35:00Z")
Hillary. Hands down. Think sheā€™s not running? Why? Because she _promised_ to serve her full six-year Senate term? (Like sheā€™d be the first pol to lie about such a thing, sheesh) Olā€™ Bill came out today, and when asked about said possible run, hinted that Hillary ā€œmightā€ indeed run, and such decision was ā€œup to herā€. Sounds like a definite ā€œmaybeā€ to me, which isnā€™t that far from an outright ā€œyesā€, in politics. My guess is sheā€™s waiting to see how Bush is doing long about, oh, December/January timeframe. If heā€™s still hurting in the polls, I think sheā€™ll go for it. Think about it; no way in sam-hell does she want any _other_ Dem to beat Bush in an upset, ala Bush 41. Thatā€™d mean _another_ eight years before sheā€™d get a shot, and thatā€™s a whole 'nuther lifetime away. Nope, itā€™s '04 for Hillary. Iā€™ll even take bets; my limitā€™s a quarter. (Never bet more than you can afford to lose, after all.)šŸ˜‰ ---
**Author:** ![Dogface](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9d8465/32.png) [@Dogface](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dogface)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2003, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/7 "2003-09-18T20:53:10Z")
It will be Dean who wins. Therefore, GWBush will be re-elected, since he can just pummel Dean on being a stereotype Democrat. I want Clark to be the candidate, but heā€™s not part of the party machine. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2003, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/8 "2003-09-18T22:08:23Z")
**NaSultainne** : is that a quarter for everyone who takes you up on it (if, of course, Hillary ends up not running) or just one quarter to divide among us? Iā€™m pretty sure that she _wonā€™t_ run, but will make a shot at it in '08. (If Iā€™m wrong, Iā€™ll send $15.00 to the state Republican Party committee of your choice!) Trinopus ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2003, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/9 "2003-09-18T23:25:44Z")
Itā€™s moot. Whoever wins the nomination will either be ā€œtoo anti-Bushā€ for the country & therefore lose; or be insufficiently distinct from Bush & therefore a pointless change of power. Bush will win next year, itā€™s already doomed. _Unless,_ someone can find an issue that the great Middle will decide Bush is wrong enough on that heā€™s got to go. Since Bush won because he is ā€œthe great Middleā€ personified, I just have to say: Lotsa luck, kids, and thank god for presidential term limits. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2003, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/10 "2003-09-18T23:34:49Z")
You realize Bush approval ratings have been on a steady decline, right, **foolsguinea**? I see nothing in the immediate future thatā€™ll help him, either. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2003, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/11 "2003-09-18T23:44:00Z")
Dean in a walk away. And if he is smart, with Clark as VP. Canā€™t beat a war hero on the ticket. ---
**Author:** ![Saxman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f6c823/32.png) [@Saxman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saxman)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2003, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/12 "2003-09-18T23:45:54Z")
Although Iā€™m a Kerry partisan, Iā€™m convinced Kerry or Clark will be the nominee for precisely the reason **foolsguinea** intimates. Only someone with military experience can plausibly say, to the great American Middle that has no interest in ā€œus vs. themā€ sniping and merely wants to live a good, quiet life: ā€œYouā€™ve gone along with what Bush has been doing because you trust your leaders to keep you safe. So hear me: Iā€™ve bled on the battlefield. Iā€™ve lost friends on the battlefield. You can be damn sure Iā€™m not going to tell you anything that wonā€™t keep you safe. So when Bush says that raising your waterā€™s arsenic levels or giving millionaires a tax cut while depriving your children of schoolbooks is part and parcel of keeping you safe, trust me when I say: it isnā€™t. And I have a better way.ā€ I think the primary electorate will begin to see the merit in such a nominee, now that Clarkā€™s entry into the race will give his and Kerryā€™s ā€œpatrioticā€ credentials much more media currency. And indeed, **Marley23** is correct ā€“ GWBā€™s numbers have so thoroughly eroded, that Iā€™d say heā€™s handily beaten if the eventual Democratā€™s national security credentials are unassailable. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2003, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/13 "2003-09-19T00:52:25Z")
> [@](#): > > And indeed, **Marley23** is correct ā€“ GWBā€™s numbers have so thoroughly eroded, that Iā€™d say heā€™s handily beaten if the eventual Democratā€™s national security credentials are unassailable. If I may agree with **Saxman** , and by proxy, myself, (;)) Iā€™ll add that national security appears to still be Bushā€™s strong point right now. No bin Laden, Omar, Hussein or WMD, to be found, sure, but heā€™s got the two wars under his belt. Iā€™d say if the Democrats can stand toe-to-toe on that issue, they can probably beat him on the economy and others. The general election is still 14 months away, and I think theyā€™ll have more ammo as time goes on. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2003, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/14 "2003-09-19T01:19:21Z")
As always, IMO, until the first five or so primaries are settled, itā€™s a bit of a crap shoot. Clarkā€™s candidacy is interesting, but I think his ultimate value in the election would be just as high if he ran as veep as if he went for Pres. Kerry, I guess, has a lot of the Demo establishment backing him, but I lean toward Dean based on his credentials and ability to articulate issues in ways that, well, people like me tend to side with. Hillary is something of a wild card; very interesting indeed if she were to break the gender barrier as a presidential candidate, but too many seem to personally dislike her to give her a reasonable shot at snagging the top job. Overall prediction: Dean or (maybe) Kerry for Pres, Clark or (maybe) Rodham Clinton for veep. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2003, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/15 "2003-09-19T01:25:57Z")
Hmm. Kerry/Clark is interesting, although Iā€™d wonder if that might be overplaying the military/national defense angle. šŸ˜‰ ---
**Author:** ![Stuffy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f17d59/32.png) [@Stuffy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stuffy)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2003, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/16 "2003-09-19T02:36:56Z")
When it started, I was thinking Kerry/Dean. That rapidly changed to Dean/Kerry (Kerry is another Gore in a lot of ways, donā€™t believe me look at his position on Iraq). Now Iā€™d love a Dean/Clark or Clark/Dean ticket I think either can beat Bush. Remember were in a recovery but so far itā€™s jobless. A recovery donā€™t mean sh%t if you ainā€™t got a job. That will be the issue, National Security will be a a close second which Clark would satisfy in either position. ---
**Author:** ![dal\_timgar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@dal\_timgar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dal_timgar)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2003, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/17 "2003-09-19T19:13:48Z")
Sorry! I refuse to think about it until it narrows down to 3 or 4 people. It is just a time wasting media circus until then. ---
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2003, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/18 "2003-09-19T19:31:31Z")
No one thinks Edwards has a chance? ---
**Author:** ![TVAA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c57346/32.png) [@TVAA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TVAA)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2003, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/19 "2003-09-19T19:33:26Z")
Am I the only one worried at the possibility that we might have a VP Clark? Eh, itā€™s just bad memories of the last one. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2003, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438/20 "2003-09-19T19:43:55Z")
Still a few months too early for predictions. But not for odds-laying: Dean 3-2 Kerry 3-1 Edwards 4-1 Clark 8-1 Others not. Ask again in January. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/curious-who-do-dopers-think-will-win-the-democrat-nomination/202438.md?page=2)