# Current Coronavirus US upsurge **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [July 15, 2020, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358 "2020-07-15T01:37:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2020, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/101 "2020-07-27T17:54:18Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > In a small community it’s quite plausible, since the government folks calling are likely local people, too. I wouldn’t assume that. Why would you localize phone call check ins? My first thought is you would set up a call centre somewhere not ask local officials to do the job. I wouldn’t be shocked if a call center guy was empathetic and/or read the Atlantic either. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2020, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/102 "2020-07-27T21:55:38Z")
From the CV Breaking News thread. Replying here 'cause we’re not supposed to be snarky over there. > [@Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2020 Breaking News](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3958): > > All the sports trying to have their cake and eat it too is mostly somewhere between abject stupidity and dangerously misplaced priorities, IMO. > > > [@](#): > > > > Every single problem we’re dealing with now stems from the fact that we never actually suppressed the virus and then put the infrastructure in place to keep it suppressed. It’s like we’re trying to figure out a way to live in a burning building. It doesn’t work. > > Andy Slavitt gets it: > > ### [Top Obama Health Official: U.S. Can ‘Virtually Eliminate’ COVID-19 When 'We…](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/andy-slavitt-obama-healthcare-coronavirus_n_5f1eea6cc5b69fd4730fa50f) > > In a now-viral tweet thread, the former acting administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services broke down how the country could beat the … Andy Slavitt is correct. We could kick butt on this virus but the country would have to act in a unified way, stick together, and make some sacrifices for the good of everyone. There’s not one chance in hell that that can happen. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2020, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/103 "2020-07-27T23:08:44Z")
Here’s a NYT article on individual choices contributing to the surge. It seems pretty harsh. > **[Opinion | The Cult of Selfishness Is Killing America (Published 2020)](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/27/opinion/us-republicans-coronavirus.html)** > > The right has made irresponsible behavior a key principle. ---
**Author:** ![needscoffee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/needscoffee/32/1076_2.png) [@needscoffee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/needscoffee)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/104 "2020-07-28T01:00:18Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > Here’s a NYT article on individual choices contributing to the surge. It seems pretty harsh.  > > [https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/27/opinion/us-republicans-coronavirus.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/27/opinion/us-republicans-coronavirus.html) Can’t argue with anything he says. Very powerful. > [@](#): > > … Rational policy in a pandemic, however, is all about taking responsibility. The main reason you shouldn’t go to a bar and should wear a mask isn’t self-protection, although that’s part of it; the point is that congregating in noisy, crowded spaces or exhaling droplets into shared air puts _others_ at risk. And that’s the kind of thing America’s right just hates, hates to hear. > > Indeed, it sometimes seems as if right-wingers actually make a point of behaving irresponsibly. Remember how Senator Rand Paul, who was worried that he might have Covid-19 (he did), wandered around the Senate and even [used the gym](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/rand-paul-coronavirus-test-reckless/608593/) while waiting for his test results? > … ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/105 "2020-07-28T02:05:07Z")
> [@RealityCheck71](#): > > I wouldn’t assume that. Why would you localize phone call check ins? My first thought is you would set up a call centre somewhere not ask local officials to do the job. I wouldn’t be shocked if a call center guy was empathetic and/or read the Atlantic either. Frum was in Ontario - that’s where the Thousand Islands Bridge is - and Ontario is broken up into local “local health integration networks,” further subdivided into public health units. It would actually make a lot of sense to have the check ins at least as far down as the LHIU. That’s the level of first response, and the level that’s reporting back tot he Ministry. Having that local would allow for faster response if someone needs help or is, in fact, traipsing around violating quarantine. ---
**Author:** ![MichaelEmouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/michaelemouse/32/101_2.png) [@MichaelEmouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MichaelEmouse)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/106 "2020-07-28T02:35:14Z")
Is the surge overwhelming medical resources? I thought that was the reason why you wanted to decrease the R. Is there another reason to decrease the R? Wouldn’t the most efficient way to deal with this be to have infected numbers which are a notch (plus some safety margin) below available resources? Do I understand correctly that even if we got it down to, say, R0.5 in one region, that wouldn’t get rid of it in the long-term because other regions will be able to spread it to low R regions, unless travel between regions is stopped for years? Even within a low R region, aren’t vaccines and herd immunity the only things that will get rid of it? Until either of those happens, aren’t surges a question of “when” rather than “if”? ---
**Author:** ![JaneDoe42](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/janedoe42/32/14104_2.png) [@JaneDoe42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JaneDoe42)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/107 "2020-07-28T03:18:54Z")
Hospitals in Arizona have been transferring patients to New Mexico. Tucson is in really bad shape and Phoenix isn’t far behind. Mr. Doe’s doctor recommended shoulder surgery back in March, it seems non-emergency surgeries aren’t going to be done for quite a while. New Mexico is paying for advertising in Arizona, reminding folks to wear masks and wash hands. They understand the threat better than Arizona. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/108 "2020-07-28T12:48:26Z")
If you get the R0 below 1, then the disease goes away, since one person infects, on average, less than one other person. I think I’ve read that wearing a mask in public will get the R0 below 1, and here’s a cite, but I don’t vouch for its accuracy (it was the first result on Google): > **[Widespread facemask use could shrink the 'R' number and prevent a second...](https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-widespread-facemask-covid-.html)** > > Population-wide use of facemasks keeps the coronavirus 'reproduction number' under 1.0, and prevents further waves of the virus when combined with lockdowns, a modelling study from the universities of Cambridge and Greenwich suggests. If it really is the case that wearing a mask gets R0 below 1 then we can eliminate this disease with consistent mask wearing nationwide, without having to kill off 8 or 10% of senior citizens (or whatever the death rate is for older people) and 0.5% of the rest of us. ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/109 "2020-07-28T13:00:55Z")
Eliminating the disease is not a realistic hope. It’s just too established throughout the world. And it isn’t going to kill anywhere near .5% of the non-senior population. That’s a wild estimate from months ago. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/110 "2020-07-28T13:07:17Z")
OK, then let’s get it down to Canada and Europe levels until a vaccine is available. If a few hundred people get it daily and a dozen or so die, that’s much better than 10,000+ daily and 1,000 people dying. So, let’s all wear masks when we’re out near people, especially inside stores, malls, etc.! ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/111 "2020-07-28T13:50:33Z")
> [@RitterSport](#): > > So, let’s all wear masks when we’re out near people, especially inside stores, malls, etc.!– B-b-b-but FREEDOM! Communists! Bill Gates! “Come and take it!” You can’t make me! This is America! Or as I read in my local paper yesterday, _“Masks are a communist tactic to see how much freedom people are willing to give up.”_ And we see this attitude right here on the SDMB. To quote the welcome message at the bottom of the screen: > Straight Dope Message Board Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/112 "2020-07-28T13:53:42Z")
It’s amazing how the social contract has completely died in this now can’t-do country. I’m greatly saddened by this turn of events. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/113 "2020-07-28T14:22:10Z")
> [@RealityCheck71](#): > > And it isn’t going to kill anywhere near .5% of the non-senior population Emphasis added. That’s a big caveat of course. We have no kind of handle on the actual overall infection fatality rate, because we have no real handle yet on infection rates. And case fatality rates are always a moving target (and are improving thankfully). But case fatality rates for seniors is still no bueno no matter how you slice the data. And there are probably ~50 million seniors in the United States. Even though I’m a decade+ shy of that designation I don’t feel real sanguine about that going forward. ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/114 "2020-07-28T14:34:53Z")
Well, it’s a matter for the unanswered question: is everyone eventually going to get it? Are we just dragging out the process or will we hit some sort of herd immunity first. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/115 "2020-07-28T14:54:16Z")
Aren’t you in Canada? Canada has had 115,000 confirmed cases, out of a population of 37 million. Let’s say that most of those cases were over 5 months, so that’s 23,000/month, or 1,600 months for everyone to get it. Do you really think that’s how it will happen? Right now, there are fewer than 1,000/day new cases. It will take a lot of days for 37,000,000 people to get it at that rate. ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/116 "2020-07-28T15:04:40Z")
No, not exactly like that. But I know we aren’t staying locked down forever and that confirmed cases is a fraction of the true infection spread. My personal guess is that herd immunity is a lower number than is generally guessed at. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/117 "2020-07-28T19:37:47Z")
Exponential growth is sneaky like that. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/118 "2020-07-28T19:50:41Z")
Oh, I realize we may get there because of Florida, but if you look at Canada, they had that kind of growth, but not for weeks now. ---
**Author:** ![FinsToTheLeft](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finstotheleft/32/2930_2.png) [@FinsToTheLeft](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinsToTheLeft)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/119 "2020-07-28T22:45:53Z")
In Toronto today we reported 1 new case for 2.6M people. This is with mandatory indoor masking, no bars or indoor dining. On the weekend, the police broke up a 200 person party in the suburbs. If one super-spreader shows up at that party, we are screwed and go back to the beginning. Toronto will likely go to our next phase of reopening “stage 3” with limited indoor dining, gyms, and some entertainment venues. Imagine 10 of those 200 partiers getting infected and going to a bar and we start going downhill quickly. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2020, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358/120 "2020-07-28T23:28:00Z")
The Brampton guy was irresponsible and has been threatened with a huge fine. It’s unlikely these cases will cause a second wave. I really think the worst of it is over in Ontario. I know no one can be completely sure. We have been in Stage 3 for over a week. People have been very cautious. Restaurants, if open, are not busy. Gyms with a normal 500 person capacity are limited to 50, but often only 25 show up. They are doing a very good job. There is a lot of fear in Canada even though the numbers have much improved. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/current-coronavirus-us-upsurge/915358.md?page=7)