I don’t think you realize just how hard NY and NJ shut down. NYC was a ghost town – Manhattan streets were empty, there was no traffic getting from place to place. In my own little suburban town, the usual backup on Main Street around rush hour was completely missing. I’d walk around and see maybe one or two other people, instead of the usual dozens of people.
Everything non-essential was closed.
You’re just wrong here. Yes, you may get updated advice as we learn more and more, but that’s a feature, not a bug.
Yes and layering and fixing gaps increases protection dramatically at least laboratory tests but also meta-analysis. There are tons of ways to “fix the mask” by sealing those gaps.
I personally think (with no data mind you) that in normal circumstances (the store, outside), there will be less virus floating around than working with covid patients in the hospital. A mask that is not an n95 may be good enough to filter enough of those particles to get below the infectious dose for your immune system. That’s JMO.
It is, I think, one of the most even treatments of this subject matter that I’ve read anywhere, so it does it a great disservice, I believe, to pull out parts, but I suppose this is a fair summary:
What we seem to need is a better understanding of herd immunity in this novel context. The threshold can change based on how a virus spreads. The spread keeps on changing based on how we react to it at every stage, and the effects compound. Small preventive measures have big downstream effects. In other words, the herd in question determines its immunity. There is no mystery in how to drop the R0 to below 1 and reach an effective herd immunity: masks, social distancing, hand-washing, and everything everyone is tired of hearing about. It is already being done.
Essentially, at present, New York City—where I live—might be said to be at a version of herd immunity, or at least safe equilibrium. Our case counts are very low. They have been low for weeks. Our antibody counts mean that a not-insignificant number of people are effectively removed from the chain of transmission. Many more can be effectively excluded because they’re staying isolated and distanced, wearing masks, and being hygienically vigilant. If we keep living just as we are, another big wave of disease seems unlikely.
The research article showing masks help in SARS is good. However, only surgical masks and N95 masks showed benefit. Paper masks did not. Early in this crisis, N95 masks were often not available or being saved for medical professionals.
Public health is sometimes the art of the possible. Lots of businesses have put in place measures which may reassure customers but probably do nothing to reduce risk. Research on a new infection takes time. Few experts think testing is good or widespread enough to detect all cases. If the real number was 10 times higher, no one would be shocked, but no one knows.
Probably the Shamwow mask has been better tested. It contains zinc!
And this would be the most intriguing part of it all:
“We just keep running the models, and it keeps coming back at less than 20 percent,” Gomes said. “It’s very striking.” If that proves correct, it would be life-altering news. It wouldn’t mean that the virus is gone. But by Gomes’s estimates, if roughly one out of every five people in a given population is immune to the virus, that seems to be enough to slow its spread to a level where each infectious person is infecting an average of less than one other person. The number of infections would steadily decline. That’s the classic definition of herd immunity. It would mean, for instance, that at 25 percent antibody prevalence, New York City could continue its careful reopening without fear of another major surge in cases.
It doesn’t make intuitive sense, Gomes admits, but “the homogenous models just don’t make curves that match the current data,” she said. Dynamic systems develop in complex and unpredictable ways, and she believes that the best we can do is continually update models based on what is happening in the real world. She can’t say why the threshold in her models is consistently at or below 20 percent, but it is. “If heterogeneity isn’t the cause,” she said, “then I’d like for someone to explain what is.”
I saw that article. Based on its description, the theory sounds compelling. But it’s not like I’ve seen the best line of fit curves. Our knowledge of viruses and immunity, unfortunately, is still in its infancy.
The first article was referring to mask types among people working in a hospital environment, a place in which the concentration of SARS was extremely high. It’s not debatable that N-95 and surgical masks provide better protection that, say, a paper mask to screen larger dust particles, so that’s not really undercutting the value of public mask wearing.
In the second article, the authors describe the role of mask wearing in public, which informed Hong Kong’s health response to COVID-19. To be sure, mask wearing by itself only reduces the amount of virus particles in the air, but particles can still spread through the masks and you can still catch corona even with a mask. The goal is to cut the risk down, which is what widespread mask wearing does, in addition to other control measures as well.
From the New York Times daily COVID update email newsletter:
Two hair stylists at a hair salon in Missouri were found to have the virus, but they wore masks and none of their 139 clients appeared to become infected, according to a new C.D.C. study.
A LOT of people I know have a hard time recognizing this and it might be the most important detail. Everyone talks about “after this is over” but that’s a very long slog (if there is an “over” at all).
Optimistically there will be a vaccine in early 2021… then think about how long it will take to inoculate the majority of the planet. Manufacturing, distribution, administration. If you’re young and healthy you’re at the end of that line. That’s the everything goes perfectly timeline.
Then consider large countries full of idiots like Brazil and the US. If you think people are politicizing not wearing masks, just wait until it’s vaccine time. You think anti-vaxxers were too numerous before? This will be absurd. We may very well end up with new measles outbreaks (absurdly contagious) to top it all off because people are putting off regular doctor visits.
…we’re here 6 months in and still technically in the first wave.
This is a perfect case study. No client turned up positive or, for those who didn’t test, acquired symptoms. Even though only five clients wore N95 masks. The rest were cloth or surgical. Plus we have 5 controls. Stylist A also infected stylist B because they didn’t wear masks when they were alone in the store. Stylist A also infected four other people who lived with her, her husband, daughter, son-in-law and another roommate.
I honestly can’t imagine what this lasting “years” would look like. I’m fairly sure, though, that the situation will become less and less like what we have now as time passes, for both good and for bad. Some folks seem to be more confident in their country’s ability to completely upend the way things are done than others, but I’m not sure it’s that easy, anywhere. Just something we’ll have to see for ourselves, I guess.
I don’t think any of it will be easy-- we’ve already seen how hard it’s been here. But it’s amazing what people can adapt to when there’s no alternative.
Sure, but that would depend on a lot of things that no one seems to be even attempting to make public at this point, for very good reason. Some things would be a lot easier to adjust to than others. I know in a perfect world, everyone would just accept anything that happens with grace and serenity, no matter what the personal consequence, as long as lives are being saved, but I’m kind of skeptical that even the educated and compassionate folks here truly have no limit. I guess we’ll just have see.
