I’d take good money (maundy and otherwise - even pieces of silver) that the next Pope will be:
Italian. They almost always are, and the Italian powerbase will be looking to re-establish itself.
Already working in the Vatican. They don’t feel the need for a “pastoral” pope like JPII. They feel that whats needed now is a “manager” (After all the Church is pretty much the world’s largest multi national).
Getting on a bit. They don’t want to follow JPII with another twenty year Pope.l
As for the possibilty of an American - no way. The American RC church should pretty muuch excommunicate itself. It appears to think that matters of doctrinbe are up for negotiation. That is like trying to negotiate with the weather. Some kind of arrangement like the CofE is probably best for all concerned.
Because that’s a long time, and somebody who’s Pope for that long has a lot of influence. As has been said before in this thread, the current pope has apponted almost all of the current cardinals. That means it’s less likely for views other than the Pope’s to be represented or get fair hearing in the curia and among the cardinals and bishops.