I agree with most of your posts in this thread and am glad to see that you now realize that GW got our tit in a wringer. But I do object to deciding that most Iraqis want us to stay on the basis of a WAG. GW’s WAG got us into this and I don’t think any reasonable course of action can come out of more WAGs.
I have no idea how to get out gracefully, but I would like to see some means of financial and other support developed that doesn’t involve US armed forces. Retired General Barry McCaffrey (sp?) said on The News Hour tonight (23 June) that our casulaties, killed, wounded and injured other ways, are running at about a battalion a month. Everyone talks about the number killed but that’s only part of the story. Take a walk through a hospital of the wounded from Iraq some time to see what else GW is costing us with his addle headed stubbornness. This article cites a 10:1 ratio of wounded to killed in Iraq. That means that so far there are over 17000 wounded service personnel and they are hardly ever mentioned. Meanwhile our dinky little imitation of Candide goes around saying that everything is working out and will be just fine if we only stay the course. Like the Titanic’s captain did?
Which brings up an important point. Unlike Vietnam, it’s very obvious who and which political party got us into this mess. It’s likely to be much more of a partisan issue than Vietnam was.
Well at the least the Titanic’s captain tried to steer clear at the last minute… ?
Good thing to remind people of the 17k wounded of which many lost limbs and hands with flying shrapnel. Add to that psychological damage and aggrieved families and friends.
I was looking on CNN today and found a link to the proposed timetable for the new constituation/government. I have no idea how to link the little timeline box, but its the link on the page called Timeline: A new government.
August 15th is the deadline for the National Assembly to draft the perminent constitution.
October 15th is when the Iraqi people vote on the constitution.
December 15th is when elections will be held (IF the Iraqi people vote in the proposed constitution).
December 30th is when the new perminent government would be installed if the December 15th.
So, in theory anyway, we are talking about a new perminent government in Iraq in late December…if the dates don’t slip. Not sure how big an IF that is.
I’d say more that GW has fucked us than simply put our ‘tit in a wringer’, but thats just me.
Luckily MY WAG doesn’t really mean anything one way or the other. I find it logical, but YMMV.
Of course they are spinning…its what they do best. But whether they spin or not some basics remain…and to me, those still indicate that if the US pulls out before a new perminent Iraqi government with constitution is in place that the whole place is likely to explode.
Well, I don’t particularly think that the situation getting no better is particularly optimistic. In addition, as I’ve seen in these discussions with you before, if I produce a military guy on the ground in Iraq who disagree’s with ‘your’ military guys assessment of the situation then you will simply poo poo it as Bush spin. If you will actually acknowledge that there is a difference of opinion even between the guys on the ground there then I will bother finding some military guys who are saying pretty much what I said (to answer your question, THATS where I got the idea that the insurgency is neither growing or shrinking, numbers wise, but remaining fairly static lately) I’ll dig them up.
I acknowledge though that you are correct…even if the insurgency is remaining static numbers wise, they are certainly much more active this year than last…and they are also more effective this year than last. As I said in THIS thread several times I don’t believe there is a military solution to this problem…only a political one involving the Iraqi’s themselves. If you wish to continue to think I’m just lapping up Rummy speak and parroting the party line…well, so be it.
They are definitely more active this year…and they have switched to softer targets (i.e. civilians and police), as well as becoming more adept at striking at US targets too. It makes sense from several levels. They are just getting better as we weed out the insurgents who weren’t as good, or just weren’t as lucky. In addition they pressure is on to shut down any Iraqi move to ratify a new constitution or install a perminent government (this is just IMO)…like the run up to the election of the provisional government.
Fettridge, Schmettridge; any three-year-old who’s ever played with a wagon full o’ building blocks knows that it’s a lot easier to smash something down than to clean it up.
Which implies that the Bush Administration doesn’t have the smarts of a three-year-old…
I’ve noticed far more US soldiers have been getting killed in the last 2-3 weeks. That’s from my checking out headlines. There was a period where they were almost no americans killed… and these weeks they managed to bag more than a few. Maybe more foreign arabs getting into the country ?
Not just the last couple of weeks…the trend in both attacks and in the effectiveness of attacks has been up since the mid-point of last year IIRC. I don’t think it means that more ‘foreign arabs’ are getting in…its both a shift in tactics (they are going after softer civilian type targets and hitting Americans in situations that are tactically more advantageous to them), and the natural tendency that after you fight for so long you get better at it…experience. But this doesn’t show either that the insurgency is getting larger numbers wise or not…it just shows that they are more active and more effective. Like I said…I don’t think my own assessment is particularly optimistic or unrealistic. Were I saying something like ‘the insurgency is in its final throes’, or that there WAS a military solution to this problem…well, that would be another matter. And I’ll grant you that in the past I DID think there was an eventual military solution to this problem, that we could simply wait out the insurgents. I still think we COULD do this…if we were willing to spend a decade there. However, politically this seems completely insupportable. The only solution I now see is a political solution that comes from the Iraqi people themselves.
For the record I’ve highly modified my position on this issue over the past few months…and I continue to modify it as new data (much of it from these kinds of threads) come to light.
I’d like to see you right on the outcome, a completed constitution by the end of August, ratified, and a new government in January, it just doesn’t look that way to me.
To solve Iraq it would have to be quite a good political solution… the insurgents have been quite uncaring about the consequences of their bombings and are still going strong somehow.
As for the casualties... I don't have the data... but I think there has been a recent upswing in US casualties, short term wise. That site posted didn't have the numbers though. Maybe new units have arrived and are still a bit green and easier targets ?
Its always varied widely depending on what the insurgents are doing…and what the American’s are doing. IIRC we just launched 2 ‘offensives’ against towns near the Syrian border recently…and thats bound to incur more casualties, both from the fighting there and from insurgent retailiation in other parts of the country (revenge and distraction to take the pressure off).
Or it could be what I said earlier…the insurgents are just getting better, especially the leadership. ‘Arab’ soldiers haven’t been, historically, considered to be very good soldiers (they are considered decent WARRIORS, if you understand the distinction), but in that kind of pressure cooker environment the ones who survive learn pretty fast what works…and what doesn’t.
Afaik we don’t have a huge influx of green troops…and I don’t think even if we did it would be responsible for the higher casualty rates as ours is not a conscript army like we had in Vietnam but a professional army. Obviously I think the higher casualty rates are from the insurgents bring much more active and aggressive then they were a year or two ago, coupled with the fact that they have learned some hard lessons, changed their tactics, and also now have a core of veterans of their own. Do anything long enough and you are bound to get better…even war.
Thanks… US casualties were lower 2 months and now they are up again 2 months. My impression wasn’t too off… casualties these 2 last months are quite above “average”.
