Thanks for the explanation. Didn’t mean to suggest you were a bookie, although I guess it’s a decent way to make a living if you’re not too picky about breaking legs and stuff. 
I suppose being a bookie is a good way to make a living, but I don’t know if I could handle taking a $10,000 bet on Martina to win 
With all due respect to Martina fans, that would be stealing
As for the odds to win:
Tonight is a make it or break it night, I think for William Levy as a contender. He’s created a buzz so he and Cheryl are dancing last tonight. Dance order is not a voting thing, it’s a ratings thing. What happens, traditionally, is they put the competitive or even the controversial dancers in fairly high profile spots, dancing 1st, then around 4th at the bottom of the first half hour, around 7 or 8 th at the top of the second hour and the most watched is the last 3 or 4 dancers. They put the ratings magnet on at these times so the show can compete with sitcoms that may start on the half hour, or new shows on the hour. So they put Derek Hough and his partner up against the Voice. They lost the demo, but won the viewership.
Controversial contestants like Bristol Palin, Kate Gosselin and Chaz Bono have gone last the second night of competition just because they were polarizing figures and created buzz. So many people who aren’t really interested in the show for dancing watched for trainwrecks to happen.
Since this season is a “feel good” season and there’s no “bad” dancers, putting Levy at the end is probably more about the buzz that was created in a good way about the dance team. And there’s a strong precident for that: Emmit Smith, Gilles Marini, Hines Ward and JR Martinez all got the last spot to dance on their second night of competition. None of them were considered the favorite to win before they started the competition, but it changed quickly after they danced and created buzz for themselves. So this is an opportunity for William to become a favorite if he does a decent Quickstep. If he doesn’t, he may have a fan vote, but he won’t have the judges and it takes a combination to win.
I did want to say about the odds, however, Katherine being ranked lower than her showing last week is a good opportunity to place a bet on her to win. That’s if you’re a betting person and you have faith that the fans are voting more than the rankings will have you believe.
J.R.'s win last season proves a total unknown can win dwts with a compelling story and dance ability. Helio Castroneves won season 5 and he was a race car driver no one knew.
Katherine is one of the most beautiful women I’ve seen in a long time. If she continues to dance well she’s got a good shot at the finals.
I wouldn’t say J.R. was a “total unknown” – he was last season’s designated ABC soap opera star (All My Children). I imagine there’s a good deal of overlap between soap viewers and DWTS fans*, so he came in with a pretty sizable fan base.
*ABC must think so – every season there’s one dancer from one of their soaps. But this season they had to reach back and resuscitate Jack Wagner, who hasn’t been on General Hospital for years.
Also, JR had Karina - who DWTS fans felt was due for a win and Helio had Julianne, who DWTS fans really liked.
Katherine has Mark.
Mark has won – twice, I think? – so obviously not everyone hates him as much as we do.
Speaking of Mark, oh my god. I have not been THIS annoyed by the faces he makes, EVER before. I totally liked Chelsea to win over Hines and Kirstie, but I REFUSE to vote for Katherine this year because I want Mark OFF my TV asap. The idea that he’s going to keep being on the show week after week is just too aggravating to bear.
Which is a shame, because Katherine’s really good. But I cannot deal with Mark’s mugging and showboating this year.
Darn it, darn it, darn it. It looks like the Tennis curse is alive and well. Martina screwed up so royally. I see the bulls-eye on her back already.
There were several others tonight that didn’t do all that well Gavin and Jack were pretty disappointing. Sherri’s size worked against her. I thought the judges were a bit too kind with Sherri’s scores.
I don’t understand all the cheering for the Cuban guy. He did ok but I didn’t see anything worth all that excitement.
Katherine did really well. I need to rewatch later to decide my favorite tonight.
I decided to give Gladys three of my votes and the rest Katherine.
I think Gladys did well enough to at least come back another week or two. She’s fun to watch and obviously loving every second of dwts.
Well the Royal Academy of London’s Musical Theatre training is keeping Katherine consistent.
Even though Martina wasn’t good, it’s possible someone else is going home.
Something came up that caused me to miss Rashon and Sherri’s dances tonight, so no comments there.
Of the ones I did see, I thought Donald did much better than last week, and I can now see him going the distance. Maybe not so much for Gavin, but he seems to have a reasonable amount of potential and so I’d like to see him stick around for a while.
Speaking strictly as a guy-type guy, I would be happy to keep seeing Maria and Katherine each week. I’ve given up trying to predict who’s going to get voted off, but Martina was fairly terrible and Melissa didn’t bowl me over either. On the male side, Jack and Anna’s routine seemed a more than a bit disjointed and, well, lacking in thrill. So there are the first three I’d prefer to see go, I guess.
Everyone not mentioned: reasonably decent, waiting to see a breakout.
Oh, and DWTS musical trainwreck of the week: the band’s rendition of ‘Dancing With Myself’. Egad.
Sometimes I think “I never ever ever would have guessed when I used to listen to this song back in the day that X years later I’d see a not-too-famous ‘star’ doing a quickstep to it on a TV show that I watched regularly.”
This week that song was “Gimme Some Lovin’.”
Full Recap of tonight. There’s a youtube video at the bottom with Mark & Katherine’s jive. Bruno is right. Those were some of best jive flicks I’ve seen on dwts.
With all due respect to Katherine, the very best flicka kicks was from Mya- season 9 week 2. She’s another trained dancer, and she scored higher than Katherine with a 27. And Nicole Scherzinger got two 10’s week two and score of 28 for her Jive.
There’s a lot of hyperbole every season as being “the best ever” but even week one the highest score was a 27 in Season 6- Kristie Yamaguchi, with the Foxtrot, in which Carrie Ann wanted to give a 10, but that would be “wrong” the first week.
While Katherine’s scores are terrific, they’re not the best ever.
My disappointment for the night wasn’t the bottom rung dancers, but Jaleel. I was waiting for a really good Jive and it never happened. Katherine certainly won the night on that dance without a doubt.
Agree that Jaleel was disappointing – of course, he was in a tough position, since he surprised the hell out of all of us last week, thereby increasing the pressure on himself. Definitely hoping he lasts a while – I could see him making the finale.
Jaleel merely “walked” through that dance, there was no bounce, no REAL dancing. I wondered to myself if he was injured. This is simply NOT the type of Jives that Kym gets out of her partners. Joey Fatone, Big Warren Sapp, Donny Osmond, Hines Ward… all sweated blood out there and did good jives. This fell completely off the rail. I thought the judges were really kind to him.
Nobody’s mentioning Rashon. I really like this kid. I hope the voters (of whom I’m not one, so I can’t complain) don’t also ignore him.
StG
Louis van Amstels blog for Week 2.