# Dante's Action Hero Mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [September 29, 2015, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988 "2015-09-29T22:59:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![WF\_Tomba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d9b06d/32.png) [@WF\_Tomba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WF_Tomba)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/61 "2015-09-30T23:15:17Z")
Well, I think Lynch-the-Lurker is a good place to start, so who has made the fewest posts so far? … oh, crap. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/62 "2015-09-30T23:23:41Z")
What does one discuss during the first day? Roles are hidden, so there’s not much to discuss there. We have a best guess at the number of scum, but no firm answer. If this is an action movie Mafia game, does somebody jump on the grenade? Is that what **Mosier** did by casting the first (essentially meaningless) vote? ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/63 "2015-09-30T23:27:32Z")
I’m always amused (and skeptical) when I see people mention how ‘hard’ it is to find the scum in Mafia. I usually find myself with the opposite problem - lots of people I’d like to vote for, and difficulty in narrowing my focus. Case in point: > [@Sario](#): > > **Vote HookerChemical** > > Because the English language is weird and we need to get some discussion going. I could see myself tossing out a Day 1 vote for this. Unlike Mosier’s vote (gut feeling, which I really don’t mind on Day 1), we get _no_ information from this vote. Even Sario seems to be admitting he’s got nothing. But then… > [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > **VOTE HOOKERCHEMICAL** > > Yes, his post does bespeak of implementing Chaos! Hah, what? This is even worse! So now, I could vote for Prof. Pepperwinkle, but… > [@Mosier](#): > > Obviously I have no evidence of this, because nobody has any evidence of anything this early. But if I’m wrong, you’ll have a pretty good suspicion that I’m scum and you can just lynch me day 2, for a better town/scum ratio than we have now. I truly can’t puzzle out town **or** scum motivation for this post. He says he has a no-evidence gut feel for SP being selected as scum… but is so sure, he’d like us to lynch SP, and then lynch himself if he turns out to be wrong. Let’s say hypothetically Mosier is town, and SP is lynched and also revealed as town. We then lynch Mosier, because that was a plan. That leaves town with a pretty dire situation, with two wasted lyches and a lynch-or-lose Day 3. _Why would a town Mosier want this?_ If he’s scum, I could guess at potential powers he might have (scum strongman, I think it’s called, where they survive an attempt at killing them?), but that’s probably unlikely. We were never going to follow this plan, and I think Mosier knows it. This has a hint of falling-on-my-swordism for a totally inconsequential gut feeling vote. That’s a slight scum push in my mind. Yes, anti-town is not always scum. Bad plans aren’t always a scum tell. But I just can’t see why a town Mosier would post this way, and I can sort of see why a scum Mosier would. So while we wait for an answer to my subsequent question, I’m going to: **VOTE MOSIER** What am I missing here, Mosier? > [@HookerChemical](#): > > Is there any scenario in which it is better to mis-lynch rather than not lynch on Day One? Very rarely, you’d want to do it for an additional day/night phase. Here’s how you’d figure it out in a worst-case scenario: D1 - no lynch, 7 town, 3 scum remaining N1 - scum kill, 6 town, 3 scum remaining D2 - mislynch, 5 town, 3 scum remaining N2 - scum kill, 4 town, 3 scum remaining D3 - still lynch or lose, because if we mislynch, we head into a night where the scum kill ensures scum control of the lynch. Therefore, there’s no benefit to skipping a lynch, because we lose out on that day’s reveal info. I’d rather take a shot-in-the-dark randomly-picked lynch (1 out of 10 odds) than skip today’s lynch. ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/64 "2015-09-30T23:54:44Z")
I don’t see this group getting six votes together to lynch any one person. I don’t see the benefit in lynching anyone the first Day unless we’ve got evidence of Scum, which, being the first day, most likely won’t happen. My vote (and, I assume Sario’s) was a test vote to get a reaction. It got one, which was very straightforward. **UNVOTE HOOKERCHEMICAL** And if we really need someone to offer up as a sacrificial lynch, well, it appears that Mahaloth is fated for the job. Or maybe sangfroid. ---
**Author:** ![WF\_Tomba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d9b06d/32.png) [@WF\_Tomba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WF_Tomba)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/65 "2015-10-01T00:11:16Z")
Plumpudding has contributed virtually nothing to the game so far. **VOTE PLUMPUDDING** ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/66 "2015-10-01T00:17:39Z")
> [@WF\_Tomba](#): > > Plumpudding has contributed virtually nothing to the game so far. > > **VOTE PLUMPUDDING** Oh, just wait. Plum sober is dedicated, analytical and slightly out-of-focus due to English being his second language. Plum in his cups is outrageous, exasperating and quite fun to be around. Heck, we voted to lynch him last time just to be sure he was Town. ---
**Author:** ![Dante\_G](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/977dab/32.png) [@Dante\_G](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dante_G)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/67 "2015-10-01T00:21:01Z")
One last vote count before I leave work. I’ll check in periodically on my phone. **Vote Count** Suburbanplankton -\*\* 1\*\* (Mosier) Hookerchemical - **1** (Sario) Mosier - **1** (Astral Rejection) Plumpudding - **1** (WF Tomba) 6 votes required for a lynch. Day 1 will end at 1230 pm EST on Friday. Play on, players! ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/68 "2015-10-01T00:41:18Z")
> [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > I truly can’t puzzle out town **or** scum motivation for this post. He says he has a no-evidence gut feel for SP being selected as scum… but is so sure, he’d like us to lynch SP, and then lynch himself if he turns out to be wrong. Using this phrasing to frame what I said isn’t very fair. I never said I’d like to be lynched if I’m wrong, and I never said I was “so sure” about anything. I just pointed out that if I’m wrong, it would seem scummy, and I acknowledge that I could be lynched for it the next day. There’s nothing unreasonable or wrong about that logic. > [@](#): > > Let’s say hypothetically Mosier is town, More sneaky phrasing. “Let’s frame the discussion by starting out pretending that Mosier is town.” > [@](#): > > and SP is lynched and also revealed as town. We then lynch Mosier, because that was a plan. Not _my_ plan. It might surprise you to know I’d rather not be lynched! > [@](#): > > That leaves town with a pretty dire situation, with two wasted lyches and a lynch-or-lose Day 3. Agreed. There are a lot more scenarios leading to lynch-or-lose day 3 than that, though. In fact, isn’t that the most likely scenario? If we don’t hit a scum on day 1 or 2, we either lose on night 2 (with 4 dead town, leaving it 3:3), or on day 3 (if we have a no-lynch day somwhere). > [@](#): > > _Why would a town Mosier want this?_ If he’s scum, I could guess at potential powers he might have (scum strongman, I think it’s called, where they survive an attempt at killing them?), but that’s probably unlikely. Why not guess at town friendly powers, like a detective that has to pretend it’s just a “gut” feeling so he doesn’t get murdered night 1? Or, just take what I said at face value, that it was just a vote with no real evidence? Why jump immediately to suggesting scum, and dismiss any other possibility? > [@](#): > > We were never going to follow this plan, and I think Mosier knows it. To repeat: it’s not my plan to get lynched. But are you seriously suggesting that nobody would even consider lynching me on day 2, if it turns out we mislynched SP on my advice day 1? That’s a pretty bold statement for you to make. Of COURSE I would be suspect number one in that case! > [@](#): > > This has a hint of falling-on-my-swordism for a totally inconsequential gut feeling vote. That’s a slight scum push in my mind. Yes, anti-town is not always scum. Bad plans aren’t always a scum tell. But I just can’t see why a town Mosier would post this way, and I can sort of see why a scum Mosier would. So while we wait for an answer to my subsequent question, I’m going to: > > What am I missing here, Mosier? You’re not missing anything. You’re just overreaching, and I suspect it’s because you’re trying to provoke a response and get more info. It’s annoying (only because I’m the target), but I understand and forgive you for it. 🙂 > [@](#): > > Very rarely, you’d want to do it for an additional day/night phase. Here’s how you’d figure it out in a worst-case scenario: > > D1 - no lynch, 7 town, 3 scum remaining > N1 - scum kill, 6 town, 3 scum remaining > D2 - mislynch, 5 town, 3 scum remaining > N2 - scum kill, 4 town, 3 scum remaining > D3 - still lynch or lose, because if we mislynch, we head into a night where the scum kill ensures scum control of the lynch. Therefore, there’s no benefit to skipping a lynch, because we lose out on that day’s reveal info. > > I’d rather take a shot-in-the-dark randomly-picked lynch (1 out of 10 odds) than skip today’s lynch. I would like to point out that if the assumption that there are 3 scum is correct, your analysis above is wrong. If we mislynch day 1 and 2, and scum gets 2 night kills, we end up losing with 3 town and 3 scum on day 3. I’m not saying we should do a no-lynch, but I am saying we should at least _consider_ it if we want a guaranteed day 3 (again, if we assume there are 3 scum). I also think it’s perfectly reasonable to consider the possibility there are only 2 scum in this game. The square root rule works well in larger games, because there are more day/night cycles before the “lynch or lose” day comes. In smaller games the rule of thumb won’t work as well. I haven’t actually done the math, but I think 3 scum would be at a huge mathematical advantage over town in this game. ---
**Author:** ![WF\_Tomba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d9b06d/32.png) [@WF\_Tomba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WF_Tomba)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/69 "2015-10-01T00:52:03Z")
> [@Dante\_G](#): > > Day 1 will end at 1230 pm EST on Friday. Nitpick: do you mean EDT? ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/70 "2015-10-01T02:02:34Z")
So, Mosier and Astral are out for me because I hunt lurkers, and they are both in the “loud” class at the moment (and good for them). The current lurkers (under 5 posts each) are Plum, Mahaloth, Plankton and sangfroid. Plum will undoubtedly make up for it, and, besides, he’s in a far different time zone. Mahaloth appears fated for death. Plankton has a valid reason. sangfroid, one of the two survivors of last game, has a habit of posting late at night. There’s still time to watch and wait. But not lurk. Lurking bad. ---
**Author:** ![Sario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sario/32/18580_2.png) [@Sario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sario)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/71 "2015-10-01T02:26:10Z")
**UNVOTE HOOKERCHEMICAL** I was indeed just trying to generate some discussion. As we seem to be on track in that regard, I’m withdrawing my vote. > [@Mosier](#): > > I don’t think mafia game masters pick the player roles randomly. In fact, I think they tend to pick scum based on who they think the best or smartest or cleverest players are. \ > [@Dante\_G](#): > > Speaking only for myself, Mosier, I do use a Random Number Generator site to assign my roles. I list out the players in one column, then list out the characters/roles in another column. Then I use the number generator all the way down until each player has a role. Simple and effective. To my knowledge, all Mods assign roles randomly. ---
**Author:** ![Sario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sario/32/18580_2.png) [@Sario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sario)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/72 "2015-10-01T02:46:14Z")
> [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > So, Mosier and Astral are out for me because I hunt lurkers, and they are both in the “loud” class at the moment (and good for them). The current lurkers (under 5 posts each) are Plum, Mahaloth, Plankton and sangfroid. Plum will undoubtedly make up for it, and, besides, he’s in a far different time zone. Mahaloth appears fated for death. Plankton has a valid reason. sangfroid, one of the two survivors of last game, has a habit of posting late at night. > > There’s still time to watch and wait. But not lurk. Lurking bad. I’ve got to call you out on this. You say Mosier and Astral are out for you, but Astral only mentioned you as a possibility because he didn’t understand your vote for HC. And unless I missed a post, Mosier hasn’t mentioned you at all. So, how exactly are they after you? ---
**Author:** ![sangfroid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e0b2c6/32.png) [@sangfroid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sangfroid)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/73 "2015-10-01T03:19:15Z")
> [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > So, Mosier and Astral are out for me because I hunt lurkers, and they are both in the “loud” class at the moment (and good for them). The current lurkers (under 5 posts each) are Plum, Mahaloth, Plankton and sangfroid. Plum will undoubtedly make up for it, and, besides, he’s in a far different time zone. Mahaloth appears fated for death. Plankton has a valid reason. sangfroid, one of the two survivors of last game, has a habit of posting late at night. > > There’s still time to watch and wait. But not lurk. Lurking bad. Yep. Lurking bad. Agreed, based on my experience last game. I sort of hung around a lot and didn’t post much, and got called on it. Eventually managed a Town win, somehow. This game, I intend to post as much as possible, and do my best to prove my Townworthiness… And this includes NOT railroading innocents. Convince me why we should lynch: **Suburbanplankton - 1 (Mosier) Hookerchemical - 1 (Sario) Mosier - 1 (Astral Rejection) Plumpudding - 1 (WF Tomba)** Give me a reason people, not just a gut feeling… ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/74 "2015-10-01T03:19:48Z")
> [@Sario](#): > > I’ve got to call you out on this. You say Mosier and Astral are out for you, but Astral only mentioned you as a possibility because he didn’t understand your vote for HC. And unless I missed a post, Mosier hasn’t mentioned you at all. > > So, how exactly are they after you? He said “out for me” not “after me”. The way I read it, “out” means “I’m probably not going to vote for them.” ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/75 "2015-10-01T04:12:34Z")
Mosier, I’m not going to do a line-by-line rebuttal on your post, so I hope this format is clear enough. I think, in my haste to post (I was literally on my way out the door as I hit submit), I was perhaps a little more antagonistic towards you than I intended. My apologies for that, I should have spent a little more time laying out my thoughts. We disagree on one central point, which seems to be **what you said.** Here’s your original post for context: > [@Mosier](#): > > I am voting on flimsy speculation. I’ll explain, but I’m warning you in advance that it’s weak and shallow. > > […] I recognize SP as a clever person, and he’s someone I would want in a scum role if I was leading a game. Obviously I have no evidence of this, because nobody has any evidence of anything this early. But if I’m wrong, you’ll have a pretty good suspicion that I’m scum and you can just lynch me day 2, for a better town/scum ratio than we have now. **Here’s my attempt at recapping that:** My (Mosier’s) vote is flimsy, weak, and shallow. It’s based on SP being scum, and us lynching him. I have no evidence, but if I’m wrong and he’s town, I’m tacitly suggesting you’d be right to think I’m scum and lynch me, for a better town/scum ratio. And I don’t understand this. The rest of my post isn’t a sneaky attempt at phrasing that casts you in a bad light, or to misrepresent you, but to approach why a _town_ Mosier might write that post, and why a _scum_ Mosier might write that post. It seemed to be a plan to me, but you’re saying it’s not. I accept that. You’re right that I’m not accounting for a town power like detective, but I didn’t consider a night 0 power usage. It’s possible, but seems unlikely to me. Your mileage may vary. Ultimately, here’s what I found suspicious in your post: you seemed inherently defensive of your self-described flimsy vote, and you were quick to offer yourself up as a lynch target if the SP lynch goes south. I still don’t get the chain of events where (assuming you’re honest), **1)** townie SP is lynched, and **2)** townie Mosier is lynched, resulting in **3)** a _better_ town/scum ratio, which led me to believe something in your post might not be honest. Scum have a certain defeatist attitude towards death, for whatever reason, and seem quick to offer themselves for the lynch as “proof” of their supposed towniness, which was another strike. We even saw it last game, with one of the newbies. If I could wax philosophic about Mafia for a second (you guys suffered through it in the Storyteller watch thread, might as well make you suffer along with it again here), I think something most players don’t do enough of is reread the dead’s suspicions. My goal with my votes is to place them early, and often, because it’s the one thing people focus on when they reread a thread. I [tend](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/misc.php?do=whoposted&t=715167) to [post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/misc.php?do=whoposted&t=678349) a [lot](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/misc.php?do=whoposted&t=592956), so it’s hard enough to reread all my posts as it is, and (as a result of that), I’m often validly lynched for something stupid I’ve said, or as part of a “lynch the loud!” tactic. Nothing frustrates me more than watching people immediately ignore all my efforts and focus on my votes, and I’ve realized that the more votes I throw out, the more people pay attention to me after I’m gone. I’m a narcissist that way. 😃 That’s a long way of saying you should take my vote for you as seriously as you take anyone’s Day 1 lynch for anybody. If you get lynched for this post, or another post, it’s probably as valid as anybody else’s reason for getting lynch. I can guarantee I’ll be moving my vote around as I see fit, and you won’t even be remotely the last scummy thing I see. I think your responses have done a little to mute my suspicion somewhat, anyway. > [@Mosier](#): > > I would like to point out that if the assumption that there are 3 scum is correct, your analysis above is wrong. If we mislynch day 1 and 2, and scum gets 2 night kills, we end up losing with 3 town and 3 scum on day 3. I’m not saying we should do a no-lynch, but I am saying we should at least _consider_ it if we want a guaranteed day 3 (again, if we assume there are 3 scum). I’m not sure I see what you’re saying. I think Day 3 is lynch-or-lose either way, isn’t it? > [@Mosier](#): > > I also think it’s perfectly reasonable to consider the possibility there are only 2 scum in this game. The square root rule works well in larger games, because there are more day/night cycles before the “lynch or lose” day comes. In smaller games the rule of thumb won’t work as well. I haven’t actually done the math, but I think 3 scum would be at a huge mathematical advantage over town in this game. You’re possibly right, but I think it’s unlikely. If there were two scum, the worst-case day breakdown would be: After D1: 7/2 After N1: 6/2 After D2: 5/2 After N2: 4/2 After D3: 3/2 After N3: 2/2 Day 4: LyLo Scum needing to force twice as many mislynches as they have team members seems very skewed against the scum team. ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/76 "2015-10-01T04:16:46Z")
> [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > So, Mosier and Astral are out for me because I hunt lurkers, and they are both in the “loud” class at the moment (and good for them). Actually, I’m right on board with you suspecting the lurkers. I’ve got no issue with that, because I think it’s an unfortunately successful tactic for scum, especially early on. Look at me: I’m picking on you and Mosier right now, because you guys are the ones talking. Realistically, I’ve only got you guys in the “slightly above a coin-flip’s chance of being scum” mental category, because you’re the only ones giving me material to pick at and consider. I’m as guilty of falling prey to “lynching the loud” as anyone. ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/77 "2015-10-01T04:19:12Z")
> [@sangfroid](#): > > And this includes NOT railroading innocents. Hahahahahaha good luck. I’ve been railroading innocents every single game, no matter how hard I try not to. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/78 "2015-10-01T04:22:02Z")
> [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > I’m not sure I see what you’re saying. I think Day 3 is lynch-or-lose either way, isn’t it? No, we never get to see day 3 if we mislynch day 1 and 2. D1 - mislynch (T:S ratio is now 6:3) N1 - scum kill (ratio is now 5:3) D2 - mislynch (ratio is 4:3) N2 - scum kill (3:3 - town loses) In the above case, there is no day 3. ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/79 "2015-10-01T04:24:27Z")
> [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > You’re possibly right, but I think it’s unlikely. If there were two scum, the worst-case day breakdown would be: > After D1: 7/2 > After N1: 6/2 > After D2: 5/2 > After N2: 4/2 > After D3: 3/2 > After N3: 2/2 > Day 4: LyLo > > Scum needing to force twice as many mislynches as they have team members seems very skewed against the scum team. Sorry, missed edit window. In the above case, (8 town, 2 scum) lynch or lose is day 3, because scum wins after their night 3 kill. This is why I’m guessing there’s only 2 scum. You’re counting an even ratio as lynch or lose, but it’s not. Once it’s 2/2, town cannot win. ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988/80 "2015-10-01T04:33:33Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > Sorry, missed edit window. In the above case, (8 town, 2 scum) lynch or lose is day 3, because scum wins after their night 3 kill. This is why I’m guessing there’s only 2 scum. You’re counting an even ratio as lynch or lose, but it’s not. Once it’s 2/2, town cannot win. I guess I am, but wouldn’t that really be a tie, assuming perfect knowledge? The two townies voting for the two scum? How are ties resolved in this game? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dantes-action-hero-mafia/732988.md?page=5)